EPAC: JOHN - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html looks like we have a new invest.

[somethingfunny]

98E (60%) is the swirl to the southwest. 99E just popped up and check it out near the coast.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 PM PDT SAT SEP 1 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM ILEANA...LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO ADD DISCUSSION OF SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.

UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A SMALL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO
MEXICO. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM LACKS A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION...IT IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 20 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[Kingarabian]

Well what do ya know? EPac jump started.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, this invest stunned the hec out of me. Not convinced it will from though.

[Yellow Evan]

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THIS
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE LARGER
LOW TO ITS SOUTH.

[Yellow Evan]

This invest is off the TWO it seems.

[galaxy401]

Must of got combined with 98E.

[cycloneye]

And is the end.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep992012.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209020556
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[Extratropical94]

Somehow 99E was resurrected and is now the main feature:

invest_RENUMBER_ep992012_ep102012.ren

BT data also shows that TD Ten-E is the former 99E:

99E BT:

EP, 99, 2012090218, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1090W, 30, 1006, LO, [...], INVEST

10E BT:

EP, 10, 2012090218, , BEST, 0, 180N, 1090W, 30, 1006, LO, [...], TEN

98E BT:

EP, 98, 2012090206, , BEST, 0, 140N, 1061W, 30, 1006, LO, [...], INVEST

And additionally, there are two deactivation files, the one for 98 has been updated at 15:13Z, the one for 99 at 5:56Z.
Despite of this the last update on 98's BT file happened at 7:40Z, the last one for 99 at 18:22Z. Confusing, eh?

[galaxy401]

Strange, I wonder why 99E but not 98E? Maybe the main part of 99e absorbed 98e or something.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, I am confused.
But ether system has a re-number.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_ep992012_ep102012
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209021940
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
...NO THREAT TO LAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 109.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/H. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. IN
ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE DEPRESSION IS
CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTELY SHEAR.
THESE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE
FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ABOUT
48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND
THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
290/15. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A
GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

THE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND
FIELD...AND THOSE DATA WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST
34-KT WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 18.3N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 20.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 21.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 24.6N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 26.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_apache/PUBLIC/tc_pages/gif89/SEL_50_20120902.1345.goes13.x.vis1km.99EINVEST.30kts-1006mb-168N-1077W.89pc.gif

Video to see if 99E was really 10E.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains as TD.

EP, 10, 2012090300, , BEST, 0, 187N, 1103W, 30, 1001, TD

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

Pressure has dropped quite a bit though, by 5 mbar, which puts it a little lower than most depressions in their formative stages.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION PASSING NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 110.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28
KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012

MODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
DEPRESSION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS/CIMSS UW SHEAR ANALYSES.
THE CLOUD PATTERN GIVES EVIDENCE OF THIS SHEAR...WITH THE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
BAND COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AT 0000 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION HAS
ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE
INTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER
THAT TIME. SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. STEADY
WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES
INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN
72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE.

THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE RELIABLE 300/15. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME AN
INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY HEADING AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME
SHALLOWER IN NATURE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT LEFT OF A BLEND OF THE
TRACKS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH APPEARED TO
HAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 19.0N 110.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 21.4N 114.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 24.8N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 25.4N 123.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Yellow Evan]

Any shot of the remnants affecting land?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Strengthens into Tropical Storm John


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR SOCORRO
ISLAND...

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 030859
TCDEP5

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2012

A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 02/1730 UTC ASCAT
OVERPASS INDICATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXISTED WITH THE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT CONVECTION HAD WANED SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF
T2.5/35 KT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOHN.
MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. JOHN IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REACH SUB-24C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...
LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.
SINCE JOHN IS ON TRACK...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 19.4N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 20.4N 113.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 21.7N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 22.8N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 23.7N 118.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 25.0N 121.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 26.0N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102012
800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2012

EARLY MORNING MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER OF JOHN IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 KT...
RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE CI-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMMS ARE T2.5.
BASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS
35 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE
HOSTILE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH JOHN MOVING OVER COOLER
WATERS AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING.
AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

JOHN WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT
THE OVERALL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...DUE TO THE MORE NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL POSTION. THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK SHOWS SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS JOHN BECOMES A
SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THAT
PORTION OF THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS A VERY GOOD
PERFORMER FOR THE WEAKENING PHASE OF ILEANA.

SOME MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 20.5N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.3N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.7N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 26.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN