Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Good news for many islanders, especially for those who live in the Leewards . Anyway, we continue to follow carefully Leslie track...


000
WTNT32 KNHC 310848
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS MORE...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 47.8W
ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[msbee]

Yes, go North, go North!

[cycloneye]

More north Barbara!

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 49.1W
ABOUT 845 MI...1355 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.1 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

[Jimsot]

295 Degrees A-OK! That should do it.

[cycloneye]

295 Degrees A-OK! That should do it.

Yes,pretty much so. But let's watch for some external bands that may make it to the islands. Also the sea will be dangerous for fishing in small boats.

[msbee]

ok, so you guys think 295 will keep it away from us? yes?
calm my nerves here please LOL

[Jimsot]

ok, so you guys think 295 will keep it away from us? yes?
calm my nerves here please LOL

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Just check out the compass.

[msbee]

Love it. thanks jim

[cycloneye]

Continues at 295 degrees.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 51.0W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY LATE
SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
315 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEGUN RIDGING IN FROM THE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY AND REMAIN GENERALLY IN CONTROL OF
THE AREA BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND CUBA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

AT MID AND LOWER LEVELS...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT INFLUENCE IN THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A HURRICANE THEN MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ITS PASSAGE PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LITTLE OR NO PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH AREAS OF DRY AIR AROUND THE PERIPHERY THAT WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL TO LOCAL EFFECTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEFORE NOON 5 TO 10 MILES
INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST AND IN COAMO AND SANTA ISABEL.
MUCH HEAVIER SHOWERS THEN DEVELOPED IN MARICAO AND MOVED INTO
MAYAGUEZ. SHOWERS CONTINUED TO A LESSER DEGREE ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT IN AGREEMENT...BOTH
THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE OUTER EDGES OF TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE TURNING THE SURFACE WINDS OVER THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND INCREASING SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE RAINFALL AREAS
MORE TO THE SOUTH. THE NAM KEEPS THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE WINDS
AROUND LESLIE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE STRONGER SEA BREEZE FLOW THAT WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE STRONGEST SOLAR HEATING AND THEREFORE WILL KEEP
POPS FAIRLY LOW ALONG THE COASTS.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE INCREASING
SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND WE CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE STRONG
PROBABILITY THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED MONDAY IN THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN SHORES
OF PUERTO RICO. ON LABOR DAY...BEACHES ON THE SOUTH AND WEST
COASTS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN UNAFFECTED.

AFTER PASSAGE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND THE GFS ACTUALLY
HALTS FORWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE IT REACHES 27 NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY IN WEAK CONVERGENCE
BANDS...AND BETWEEN THESE...WEAK SUBSIDENCE BANDS THAT WOULD
DIMINISH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE THE FORECAST
IS DRIER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. FURTHERMORE SINCE THE FLOW
IS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...SHOWERS THAT ARE NORMALLY EXPERIENCED ON THE NORTHEAST
COASTS WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR AND DOWN-SLOPE WINDS MAY BOOST
TEMPERATURES IN THE SAN JUAN...ARECIBO AND AGUADILLA SURROUNDINGS
AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
SHOWERS TENDING TO FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHERN COASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONT VFR XCP IN A FEW SHRA/TSRA IN WEST IN AFTERNOONS
WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS BELOW FL 100 E
15-25 KT WEAKENING TO 6-10 KT ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEEN 2 TO 4 FEET IN MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 14 FEET POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF AMZ710 ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
FOR CAPTAINS PROCEEDING NORTH OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA...CONDITIONS
WILL BE HIGHLY ADVERSE TO ALL SIZES OF VESSELS FOR ALMOST ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 77 90 / 20 10 20 20
STT 79 89 79 89 / 30 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 52.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 53.5W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL GET ABSORBED
BY DEEP POLAR TROUGH...AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS 415 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN OR
ABOUT 480 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AS WELL
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE AND DISSIPATE
INLAND. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS 415 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN OR ABOUT 480
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM LESLIE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE INCREASING SEAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON LABOR
DAY...BEACHES ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD
REMAIN UNAFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...PERHAPS AN ISOLD AFTERNOON TSRA IN THE VCNTY OF JPS
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH P6SM SKC. ONSHORE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO SEA BREEZE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT AT 5
TO 10 KT AS AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE.


&&

.MARINE...00Z WNA GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN WITH SEAS AS SO DOES
TAFB GUIDANCE WITH SEAS NOW EXPECTED IN THE 7-9 FT RANGE ACROSS
AMZ710.EAST SWELLS ARE ALSO FCST TO ARRIVE A LITTLE LATER NOW SUN
MORNING. SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM PREVIOUS
FCST AND IS NO LONGER CALLING FOR 11 FT SEAS. NOTE THAT THE 7-9 FT
SEAS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE PORTIONS OF AMZ710. SMALL
CRAFT ADVZY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.

&&

CLIMATE...SUMMER 2012(JUN-JUL-AUG) ENDED AS THE THIRD WARMEST
SUMMER ON RECORD ACROSS THE SAN JUAN AREA WITH AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE OF 84.3F. SUMMER 1980 ENDED AS THE WARMEST SUMMER
ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 85.1F. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...SUMMER 2012 ENDED AS THE EIGHTH AND THE FIFTH
DRIEST SUMMER ON RECORD AT TIST AND TISX WITH 5.96" AND 4.43"
RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 10 10 20 0
STT 89 80 89 80 / 10 20 20 0

[cycloneye]

Almost at the most north island in latitud and that is good news.

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.7 WEST. LESLIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Macrocane]

Good evening. These are the temps registered on August 31 2012 in Central America:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in Guatemala, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in El Salvador and Honduras.

Belize city, Belize 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.7°C (49.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.2°C (52.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 21°C (70°F) COOLEST SINCE NOVEMBER 9 2011.
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.7°C (72.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Nicaragua. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.2°C (73.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.9°C (66.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31.8°C (89.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.1°C (86.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.4°C (81.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.3°C (86.5°F)

[BZSTORM]

yes its been really hot here in Belize the last few days we even had a freak 1/2hr storm fly through the southern Belize a few evenings ago, winds were between 35mph with higher gusts recorded by some local people with homestyle weather centers at 37mph and just 40 mph gusts, not much rain just some pretty gusting winds. Looked to be coming up from Guatemala.
I personally have been out of loop with Leslie since sunday when a sudden power outage coincided with my UPS failing, result screwed up Hard drive because didnt shut down properly, just starting to get main computer back up and running.

So very glad to see Leslie will not impact too badly on leeward islands, though got to watch out for those rainbands. Keep safe & dry my friends.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. We can say goodbye to Leslie as it continues to move away from us. But some indirect effects will occur as some showers with a light wind flow and high swells will be here until she gets more north.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST SUN SEP 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS 360 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN OR ABOUT 430 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SAN JUAN THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN. HOWEVER...GOOD SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE...DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL EACH
AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OR DRIFT NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED EARLY THIS WEEK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO
RICO AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW PERSISTS.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH...ALONG WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS 360
MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT JOHN OR ABOUT 430 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE INCREASING SEAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ON LABOR DAY...BEACHES
ON THE SOUTH AND WEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD REMAIN UNAFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA. STEERING FLOW IS VERY ILL-DEFINED BUT EXPECT MAINLY AN
EASTWARD DRIFT OF THE TSTMS. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR JSJ AND JPS
UNTIL THINGS BECOME CLEARER THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE FLUCTUATIONS IN
WIND DIRECTION ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS LESLIE PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY 41044 SHOWS SEAS UP TO 28 FT IN MOSTLY EAST SOUTHEAST
SWELLS JUST A FOOT LOWER THAN INDICATED BY 00Z WNA. GUIDANCE SHOWS
SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT ACROSS THE FAR NERN PORTIONS OF AMZ710. IT
APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEAS RIGHT ALONG
THE EDGE OF THE MARINE BDRY AT 19.5 NORTH. SEAS WILL BUILD TODAY
TO 7-9 FT AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MON. SEAS COULD SUBSIDE
FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 0 10 0
STT 89 79 89 79 / 10 0 0 0

From 5 AM Leslie advisory.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY LESLIE COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND BEGIN TO AFFECT PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
337 PM AST SUN SEP 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OUTER FRINGE BANDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AFFECTED THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS MOST
OF THE DAY...BUT OTHERWISE CONVECTION WAS SLOW TO INITIATE
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 130 AND 200 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND THEREFORE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
COVERAGE OF LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ALONE IN THE
GRIDS AND FORECASTS.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL STILL PROMOTE A
GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THAT SAID...A DIRECTIONALLY ALTERED AND LIGHT
WIND PATTERN DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT
NORTHEAST.

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH...IS
FORECAST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM LESLIE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BUILDING SWELLS AND RESULTANT HAZARDOUS
SEAS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON LABOR DAY...BEACHES ON THE SOUTH
AND WEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNAFFECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL AFFECT THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR
UNTIL 02/23Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE VICINITY OF TJMZ...
TJPS...AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. WINDS ARE MAINLY FROM THE WEST AT AROUND
5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UNTIL 02/23Z. LIGHT WEST WINDS AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...EAST NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY
TROPICAL LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
WATERS TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE
SUBSIDING STEADILY. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH SOME SMALL NORTHERLY
COMPONENT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR EARLY THIS WEEK...THESE COULD BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...DEPENDING ON
THE FINAL TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF LESLIE AS THE SYSTEM
MAKES ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH TURN DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 79 89 / 0 10 0 20
STT 79 89 79 88 / 0 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
423 AM AST MON SEP 3 2012


.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUED TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OVERNIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH...IS FORECAST TODAY AND TUESDAY. ON THE PRESENT AND EXPECTED
FORECAST TRAJECTORY...THE ONLY CONTINUED IMPACT FROM LESLIE WILL BE
THE SWELL ACTION LEADING TO HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS. THIS HOWEVER IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND REST OF THE
DAY.

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERALL THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A GENERALLY
FAIR AND AND SUBSIDENT WEATHER PATTERN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STILL BEING
DISRUPTED BY THE FLOW AROUND TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH AFTERNOON...LATER RESULTING IN
INCREASING CLOUDINESS...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT OF THE FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY
STEERING FLOW...SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH
NORTHEAST... HOWEVER LITTLE MOTION IS SO FAR EXPECTED AS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND OF SHORT DURATION.

FOR LOCAL BEACH GOERS ON LABOR DAY...BEACHES ALONG THE SOUTH...WEST AND
EAST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THOSE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN UNAFFECTED BY SWELL ACTION GENERATED FROM TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE AND SHOULD BE MORE SUITABLE FOR AQUATIC ACTIVITIES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LOCAL WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SSW AT LESS
THAN 10 KTS THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/ISOLD
TSRA MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS N CENTRAL PR. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BTW 03/17Z-03/21Z DUE TO LOW CLDS AND THE AFTN
CONVECTION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 87 78 / 30 0 20 0
STT 87 78 87 77 / 0 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON SEP 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTIONALLY
ALTERED AND LIGHT WIND PATTERN DUE TO SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE...WILL RESULT IN GOOD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH
DAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS
EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK OR
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THAT THE FA WILL RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN WITH SOUTHEAST TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
SUSTAINED WITH A FEW GUSTS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EVEN
MORE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PR WHICH MAY CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SOME SMALL NORTHERLY COMPONENT SWELLS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR TUESDAY...AND THESE COULD BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND
TIME FRAME...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR
THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 78 87 77 87 / 10 10 0 0