ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track remains at 50kts.

AL, 12, 2012090300, , BEST, 0, 230N, 615W, 50, 998, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[ozonepete]

Wow! That is just some huge burst of convection. If Leslie ever gets it act together it will be a really impressive hurricane.

[Hurricane Alexis]

MIMIC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... hr_04.html

[ozonepete]

Some early surprises from Leslie? The 37GHz microwave sat looks like the center may be more under the convection than we thought. And the shear from CIMSS looks to be lower also. Maybe conditions will improve faster than the models are forecasting?

[hurricanes1234]

Very cold cloudtops there - around -80°C for the warmest in the tallest thunderstorms.

[westwind]

From advisory 10 issued yesterday.

CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS.

Maybe the recent convective blow up is due to the extremely unstable environment the NHC mention. Could this unstable environment (if it persists) perhaps allow Leslie to get its act together more quickly than Issac did if and when the shear lessens.

[greenkat]

If those thunderstorms stick around, Bermuda may be dealing with a Cat 2 or 3 storm in the long run.

[greenkat]

Looks like a fat box right now.

Yup, that tends to happen with struggling TS's

[ozonepete]

From advisory 10 issued yesterday.

CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES
THROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS.

Maybe the recent convective blow up is due to the extremely unstable environment the NHC mention. Could this unstable environment (if it persists) perhaps allow Leslie to get its act together more quickly than Issac did if and when the shear lessens.

I would think so. Especially because it has only open water ahead with high SSTs.

[ozonepete]

If those thunderstorms stick around, Bermuda may be dealing with a Cat 2 or 3 storm in the long run.

Wouldn't surprise me at all. If I lived on Bermuda I'd pay really close attention over the next few days.

[bermudashorts]

Think I will start oiling the storm shutters just in case. It's been a while since they have been used!

[abajan]

That was a pretty large area of very cold cloud tops a few hours ago:



Plus, if Leslie keeps heading northwest, it will be entering a small pool of super-heated (31°C) water.

[TheBurn]

09:45z VIS / IR (Day / Night)




09:45 UTC IR (notice cold cloud top temps)

[jinftl]

Fanning out of cirrus on west and north side seem to confirm what the NHC said at 5am, shear is going down. Blow up of convection near center too.

[cycloneye]

IMO,I think is time to add at the Public Advisories the following, "Interests in Bermuda should watch the progress of Leslie" as it looks more and more that the island will be affected directly or indirectly.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[drezee]

Visible looks like the LLC is past 63 W

[wxman57]

Visible looks like the LLC is past 63 W

Yes, and between 24N-25N - NW of that small blob of convection that now appears to be weakening. Still struggling with strong shear.

[bermudashorts]

Sitting here in Bermuda looking at the ocean at the bottom of the garden. It'sually like a mill pond but we have huge swells today. Waves are coming over the garden wall. Does anyone know if this is already the effects of Leslie - assume not as she is still so far away?

[vbhoutex]

Sitting here in Bermuda looking at the ocean at the bottom of the garden. It'sually like a mill pond but we have huge swells today. Waves are coming over the garden wall. Does anyone know if this is already the effects of Leslie - assume not as she is still so far away?

More than likely it is a result of Leslie. I've lived on the Gulf Coast all my life. I remember several times when there were storms in the Southern Gulf and we were surfing what we called hurricane swells that were generated by the likes of Celia, Camille, etc. I remember several times in the last several years when there have been advisories issued along the East coast for heavy surf when storms were far off the coast.

[tailgater]

Sheared pretty good, I don't know that it will strengthen in the near future. I've got it @ 23.9N 63.2W