ATL: LESLIE - Models
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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
The 12z GFS OP is way out to lunch, I think that's pretty obvious. The ensemble mean takes her right over Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
This goes past 70W and Leslie got my attention...generally moving WNW-NW.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
09/03 12Z CMC run
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
12Z CMC run
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2012090312&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Not good for me....This is Sunday,September 9. Schools here may have a rare, "hurricane day", while people with jobs try and drive in the rain.
Last edited by HurricaneAndrew92 on Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Riptide wrote:That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.
Up from a 2% yesterday. How strong would Leslie be in that model run in the final frame?
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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
HurricaneAndrew92 wrote:Riptide wrote:That's crazy, the CMC brings Leslie back to 61W and still manages to get to 70W. I'm putting the odds of a Continental US landfall at around 15%, give or take.
Up from a 2% yesterday. How strong would Leslie be in that model run in the final frame?
High-end Cat 1/Low-end Cat 2; quite formidable for that location. 970's mb pressure.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
Models make her quite a large and rather formidable hurricane in a few days, maybe a mid level Category 2 and even a major hurricane can't be ruled out either. Some impressive swell and deadly rip currents appear very likely for several days up and down the east coast at the very least.
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- Extratropical94
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- Riptide
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Models
The intensity of Leslie approaches Category 5 near Bermuda, the euro is notorious for doing this with mid-laditude hurricanes though. It brought Irene down to 932 mb.
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Re:
Extratropical94 wrote:Euro +120 hrs
Don't look at the minimum pressure.
[img ]http://img849.imageshack.us/img849/48/natlprmslmsl120.gif[/img ]
Ahhhh! What has been seen can not be unseen.
I need a Xanax...
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- Hybridstorm_November2001
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I'm interested enough that I'm now (started last night) tracking Leslie at my weather blog: http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/ I'll update it at the end of every day, by the weekend we'll see things could get rather hectic....
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