ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg

Does that mean it's weakening?

I think it means it's relocating to me...closer to the convection....but thats JMO.....

[Riptide]

Probably necessary for Leslie to organize and develop a core; the Euro and the GFS projected this to occur.

[ozonepete]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg

Does that mean it's weakening?

Not at all. It means it's doing what it's been doing for the last few days, and will do for one more day. The LowLevelCenter and MidLevelCenter keep trying to align but can't because the mid level winds are blowing the MLC away from the LLC to the southeast. In another 24-36 hours the mid to upper level winds that are causing this (the shear) will relax, the MLC will stack up on top of the LLC and there should be notable strengthening. Probably a lot.

[brunota2003]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg

I also see several 50 knot barbs. Isn't ASCAT usually low bias, too? So 55 knots?

[ozonepete]

Fresh ASCAT shows an elongated center.

http://oi46.tinypic.com/qxkmqx.jpg

I also see several 50 knot barbs. Isn't ASCAT usually low bias, too? So 55 knots?

Yeah, it is low bias, so I wouldn't expect those winds. How does that chart show contamination from heavy rain?

[cycloneye]

They saw the ASCAT. Went up to 55kts.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[ozonepete]

They saw the ASCAT. Went up to 55kts.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...BUT NOT MOVING MUCH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 63.1W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

VERY nice catch, Luis. Especially because it's so hard to get a clean pass over a TC with ASCAT due to its narrow slices.

[Cape Bretoner]

Being from Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, Leslie has me concerned. I lived in Halifax when we were struck by "Juan", and it was the craziest weather I ever experienced. I was just wondering what the general concensus was on whether Leslie will land in Nova Scotia? I would love to hear from as many of you as possible.

Thanks.

[rainstorm]

you probably have 5-7 days to see what will happen.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Being from Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, Leslie has me concerned. I lived in Halifax when we were struck by "Juan", and it was the craziest weather I ever experienced. I was just wondering what the general concensus was on whether Leslie will land in Nova Scotia? I would love to hear from as many of you as possible.

Thanks.

Outside of Bermuda, right now it looks like New Foundland Island & the Eastern half of Nova Scotia (your area in other words) might take the full burnt of Leslie, if of course any land areas in North America do. It is far out, and things can easily change. I am not yet ruling out a Maine/New Brunswick landfall or even a Southern New England (in particular Cap Cod) impact.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Macrocane]

Leslie looks better than it has done in the last couple of days, banding is finally developing, it is not an amorphous blob anymore as it has a comma shape tonight.

[SouthDadeFish]

Earlier microwave pass shows the shear is clearly still affecting the storm:

[ozonepete]

Being from Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia, Leslie has me concerned. I lived in Halifax when we were struck by "Juan", and it was the craziest weather I ever experienced. I was just wondering what the general concensus was on whether Leslie will land in Nova Scotia? I would love to hear from as many of you as possible.

Thanks.

Outside of Bermuda, right now it looks like New Foundland Island & the Eastern half of Nova Scotia (your area in other words) might take the full brunt of Leslie, if of course any land areas in North America do. It is far out, and things can easily change. I am not yet ruling out a Maine/New Brunswick landfall or even a Southern New England (in particular Cap Cod) impact.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I agree with what Hybrid said. That's the best we can see right now. Outside of that it is just way too early to tell. Please keep checking back with us and you'll get a really good assessment of what's going on as it gets nearer to you.

[ozonepete]

Earlier microwave pass shows the shear is clearly still affecting the storm:

http://img651.imageshack.us/img651/203/ ... omposi.jpg

Thanks SD! Those are so cool - they tell us a lot about what's going on.

[meriland23]

Looks like gfs took this a bit more west, NS hit on this one?

[brunota2003]

Well, I created a wind graphic for TS Leslie and TD #13. Leslie's has Bermuda in the 34 to 49 knot force winds (20% chance or greater) within the next 5 days, with the 50 knot to 63 knot winds area knocking on their doorstep. No hurricane force winds yet, wind chances are less than 20% at the moment (but a big swath of 10 to 19%, so expect them very soon!).

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[jaxfladude]

I am getting worried about Miss "L".......may be one of those historic ones. The slow ones are the worst to forecast out to sea or hits any kind of landmass...prayers......pay attention for now.
+++++
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MJS1]

Testing my theory...there is a disturbance south of the Florida Keys..the longer Leslie stays stationary (never seen that before) the likely that a high pressure will loop it towards it..My GUESS..I HAVE NO FORMAL METEOROLOGICAL EDUCATION AND MY PREDICTION IS PROBABLY (LIKELY) WRONG..FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION PLEASE LISTEN TO OFFICIAL NHC ADVISORIES...

[SouthernBreeze]

Well, 5AM Advisory says moving North at 5 mph, that's good -- although Bad for Bermuda, as it looks like it will pass them extremely close to their west & they'll get the worst of her!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MJS1]

Well, 5AM Advisory says moving North at 5 mph, that's good -- although Bad for Bermuda, as it looks like it will pass them extremely close to their west & they'll get the worst of her!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

According to the weather service,Leslie is stationary..I wonder how upwelling will affect her?