ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, whats the chances if this El-Nino doesn't develop that we will see one for the summer of 2013?

[Ntxw]

This el nino will develop, already has. Cannot find a back to back El Nino case in cold PDO. Next year probably neutral or Nina, I say nina because PDO is very cold. Educated guess this far out and nothing more

Ah ok that makes sense to me now. So when will this Nino event start to affect our weather? Can we expect many storm systems dumping heavy rains across Texas (probably from cut-off lows?) from say October to April? Does that time range sound about right?

It already has in a subtle way. Western Pac NW ridge has been persistent in August and NW flow in our area, unusual this month. Once jet stream start pumping storms into the north central Pacific they will dive further south than previous years likely from a Nino-induced PNA+/-EPO combo. My guess is late Sept and October for sure as the jet begins it's southward migration.

[Ntxw]

Barring some kind of unseen precipitous drop tomorrow, we may very well see our first 1c or greater 3.4 weekly anomaly Monday.

[cycloneye]

Barring some kind of unseen precipitous drop tomorrow, we may very well see our first 1c or greater 3.4 weekly anomaly monday.

http://i47.tinypic.com/4v03mo.gif

This time it will be on Tuesday because of the holiday.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the reminder Cycloneye . SST regional anomaly graphic still updates and has warmest 3.4 yet, question is how much exactly.

[South Texas Storms]

Based on that graphic, it looks like it went up to about 0.8 C. We will see tomorrow though.

[dexterlabio]

interestingly 1+2 continues to cool down.

[Hurricaneman]

This looks like an El Nino Madoki looking at the anomoly maps

[Ntxw]

This looks like an El Nino Madoki looking at the anomoly maps

Indeed it is a CP Nino with 3.4 regions being greatest along with the other CP's 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 of the last decade.

There is only two confirmed EP Nino's of the satellite era 1982 and 1997

[Ntxw]

Looks like it came in just shy of 1c this week.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 9/4/12 update

Turning into a modoki El Nino it appears as Nino 3.4 warms more and Nino 1+2 cools down.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Also it looks like ONI for JJA did not make the 0.5 threshold and was actually lower than I thought at 0.1. This means El Nino conditions were not present in June.

[JPmia]

Is there a reference that gives all the previous El Nino Modoki hurricane seasons?

[Ptarmigan]

This looks like an El Nino Madoki looking at the anomoly maps

Indeed it is a CP Nino with 3.4 regions being greatest along with the other CP's 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 of the last decade.

There is only two confirmed EP Nino's of the satellite era 1982 and 1997

The 1982 and 1997 El Ninos were very strong. Interesting that following CP or El Nino Modoki, there is an active hurricane season.
2002=2003
2004=2005 (Both were active)
2006=2007
2009=2010

[NDG]

And in case anybody is wondering, the big difference between this year, 2006 & 2009 is that a Modoki type El Nino in 2006 & 2009 did not appear until late in the hurricane season, barely.
That is why this season is busier compared to those two years, IMO.

[LarryWx]

Also it looks like ONI for JJA did not make the 0.5 threshold and was actually lower than I thought at 0.1. This means El Nino conditions were not present in June.

That as well as MJJ both look very suspect. MJJ should have been ~+0.3 instead of 0.0 while JJA should have been ~+0.5 instead of +0.1 based on the weeklies. Somebody needs to call them and get the lowdown or get them to correct these ONI's.

[Ntxw]

That as well as MJJ both look very suspect. MJJ should have been ~+0.3 instead of 0.0 while JJA should have been ~+0.5 instead of +0.1 based on the weeklies. Somebody needs to call them and get the lowdown or get them to correct these ONI's.

Wow, you noticed it too. I thought I was crazy looking back at the weeklies since April when it didn't add up for me

[weatherdude1108]

Back in December 1991, a couple friends and I drove from West Texas to San Antonio. It rained non-stop all the way to San Antonio. I remember seeing waterfalls CASCADING down the road cuts along I-10 in the Junction/Kerrville areas. It was the most AWESOME sight on an otherwise quiet, uneventful road cut! Just about every watershed in the state was brimming and could not take any more water. I think that was an El Niño period (correct me if I'm wrong). Anyway, I have dreams of witnessing that kind of sight again.

[SoupBone]

So if a Modoki El Nino brings with it increased tropical system formation and increased landfall chances, I have two questions.

If it's a complete structure change and more closely resembles La Nina in its effects, why even refer to it as El Nino (I may be oversimplifying it and a name is just a name). The second question is what effects will this have on winters (specifically in the US)? Since a Modoki El Nino alters the frequency of both a system's inception and landfall chances, does this alter the type of weather typically experienced during an El Nino event in the U.S.?

[Ntxw]

Ok lets once again clarify this. A modoki El Nino and a CP El Nino are the same thing. Please lets not tag the "modoki" term because 2004 was one and had landfalls. Most El Ninos are modoki. The strong El Ninos are the traditional ones.

Now like NDG pointed out strength and locations of anomalies during the season seems to matter. Not if it is "modoki" or not. 2009 and 2006 were "modoki" but bc the eastern regions took longer to cool it suppressed activity. Modoki El ninos naturally are more active because they are weaker than the traditional EP El Ninos <- there are two of them since 1979).

Here is the paper on the two types of El Ninos

http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/Yu.2011.TAC.pdf