#8711 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 04, 2012 12:39 pm
ROCK wrote:Janie2006 wrote:Assuming for the moment the MCS does shift offshore into a favourable environment for development...it won't have much time to get its act together because of the rather rapidly evolving situation upstream. Longwave troughing develops over the east by Friday, sending a strong cold front into the Great Plains. The front doesn't stall, it sweeps all the way to the coast by Sunday, so anything that happens to be brewing in the NE Gulf gets swept to the northeast....per the current model data over the CONUS.
All in my rather humble opinion, of course.
true that cut off low over Ohio dives pretty deep..should sweep it out..but the further south / west it gets and delays development..then we might have another player........I dont think the cold front gets to off the coast of Texas before moving back up....
well if you look at the 00z euro it keeps it over water for nearly 3 days.. the 12 cmc today actually leaves it behind in the gulf instead of out over florida right away. even the gfs has it although weak over the gulf waters for 3 days. plenty of time to become a TS again.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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