ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tireman4]

Well, my name will be poof....LOL

[CrazyC83]

Never say never. Gordon and Kirk weren't expected to do much either.

[SouthDadeFish]

Looking fairly impressive now. A very small CDO, with spiral bands apparent on the eastern side:



These small storms have the potential to spin up fairly quickly.

[ROCK]

got a great look....might make cat 1 before said and done...Kirk was in the same area not to long ago....better conditions..

[SouthDadeFish]

Also pretty cool to look at the big picture. Michael is much smaller than his big sister Leslie:

[Macrocane]

Looks like a 50 kt tropical storm to me, very nice structure.

[CrazyC83]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Dvorak tends to do poorly with small storms, so yes I agree it is probably stronger than we believe.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Wind field not as small as Marco in 2008

[cycloneye]

Michael seems to be getting stronger. SSD Dvorak up to 3.0.

04/1745 UTC 27.3N 43.5W T3.0/3.0 MICHAEL -- Atlantic

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track also goes up in intensity (45kts)

AL, 13, 2012090418, , BEST, 0, 273N, 436W, 45, 1006, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Macrocane]

45 kt? I really doubt it, an eye like feature is trying to appear in satellite imagery, shallow systems usually develop an "eye" when they are 55 or 60 kt.

[SouthDadeFish]

45 kt? I really doubt it, an eye like feature is trying to appear in satellite imagery, shallow systems usually develop an "eye" when they are 55 or 60 kt.

I completely agree. EDIT: Here are some recent microwave passes:





Note that they are taken at different times. A mid-level eye feature is developing.

[ROCK]

hey is making a run at a cane now...I think he will make it....IMO...

[tolakram]

Latest

[RL3AO]

Marco left v Michael right.

Both are six by six degrees.

[CrazyC83]

I agree, with the Dvorak bias, I would put it at 60 kt personally.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthDadeFish]

Cloud tops are warming now:

[somethingfunny]

Cloud tops are warming now:

[img]http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/7184/191uwo.jpg[/ img]

Normally I'd say to wait for DMAX, but I don't know if a storm of Michael's size would follow the same general rules.

[ROCK]

I think it tried to form an eye wall earlier but that got squashed...might be trying to rebuild though....

[hurricanes1234]

Compact little storm going about his business. I like storms like these.