Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON SEP 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE DIRECTIONALLY
ALTERED AND LIGHT WIND PATTERN DUE TO SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE...WILL RESULT IN GOOD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH
DAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS
EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT
NORTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK OR
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND THAT THE FA WILL RETURN TO A MORE
NORMAL PATTERN WITH SOUTHEAST TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
SUSTAINED WITH A FEW GUSTS...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH EVEN
MORE THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PR WHICH MAY CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT
SOME SMALL NORTHERLY COMPONENT SWELLS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR TUESDAY...AND THESE COULD BUILD
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND BEYOND
TIME FRAME...ONCE AGAIN DEPENDING ON THE FINAL TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR
THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 78 87 77 87 / 10 10 0 0

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
406 AM AST TUE SEP 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARDS AWAY FROM THE REGION. LESLIE IS STILL HOWEVER
EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND MEANDER ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WHILE STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. AS A RESULT...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATION
SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END FOR THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUING TO ADVECT
FRAGMENTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE INTO THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES...AND A STABLE AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. HOWEVER... WITH LESLIE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE REGION...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND RESULT IN LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
DUE TO THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE
ADVECTION...EXPECT SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNALLY
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
ADJACENT AREAS EACH AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW MAY HELP TO DRIFT SOME OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH VERY SHORT LIVED
SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS NO MAJOR OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER IN SIGHT APPROACHING
THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING
AREA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL AT LEAST 04/12Z...BECOMING FROM THE SSW
AT LEAST THAN 10 KTS AFTER 04/12Z. AFTER 04/18Z...ISOLD TO SCT SHRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL PR. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION BTWN 04/18 AND 04/21Z DUE TO LOW CLDS LYRS AND AFTN
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 30 0 20 0
STT 87 78 88 79 / 10 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST TUE SEP 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE MOVES VERY SLOWLY NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
WILL STILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THAT SAID...THE
DIRECTIONALLY ALTERED AND LIGHT WIND PATTERN DUE TO SLOW MOVING
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...WILL CONTINUE RESULT IN GOOD SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
AND ADJACENT AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OR DRIFT NORTHEAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND THAT THE FA WILL RETURN TO A SOMEWHAT
MORE NORMAL PATTERN WITH SOUTHEAST TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS MAINLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...DECREASING IN THE EVENING TO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE UNTIL AT LEAST 05/12Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF PR UNTIL 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...STILL EXPECT SOME SMALL NORTHERLY COMPONENT SWELLS FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...PULSES OF MODERATE...NORTH NORTHEAST
SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERATED FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AND
THEN AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. THE EXTENT OF THESE WILL STILL DEPEND ON THE
FINAL TRACK...SPEED AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. PLEASE
REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 79 90 / 0 20 0 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 0 0 0 10

[HurricaneFan]

I noticed the forecast says the Islands will be dry for the next seven days.But wouldn't the Tropical Wave that is WSW of the Cape Verde Islands now reach the Islands within that time frame?Or is it not expected to reach the Islands?

[cycloneye]

I noticed the forecast says the Islands will be dry for the next seven days.But wouldn't the Tropical Wave that is WSW of the Cape Verde Islands now reach the Islands within that time frame?Or is it not expected to reach the Islands?

It looks like it would pass south of the BVI/USVI and PR but that could change.

[HurricaneFan]

I noticed the forecast says the Islands will be dry for the next seven days.But wouldn't the Tropical Wave that is WSW of the Cape Verde Islands now reach the Islands within that time frame?Or is it not expected to reach the Islands?

It looks like it would pass south of the BVI/USVI and PR but that could change.

On what day is it expected to pass to the south?Is it expected to pass so far south that the NE Caribbean doesn't feel the effects?
And why aren't the models not suggesting development at all?Are conditions hostile in the area right now?
This whole large area is P23L right?

[cycloneye]

I noticed the forecast says the Islands will be dry for the next seven days.But wouldn't the Tropical Wave that is WSW of the Cape Verde Islands now reach the Islands within that time frame?Or is it not expected to reach the Islands?

It looks like it would pass south of the BVI/USVI and PR but that could change.

On what day is it expected to pass to the south?Is it expected to pass so far south that the NE Caribbean doesn't feel the effects?
And why aren't the models not suggesting development at all?Are conditions hostile in the area right now?
This whole large area is P23L right?

Not ideal conditions at this time as a trough is in the Central Atlantic. But as the trough goes away as the models suggest,things will turn more favorable for development by next week as P24L and P25L emerge West Africa.

[HurricaneFan]

Interesting,so it is expected to remain a Tropical Wave.
But is it really expected to pass so far south that the NE Caribbean would not feel any effects?
And at which day is it expected to pass south of the NE Caribbean?
I just find it strange that this Wave is so overlooked(although the environment isn't the best).

[cycloneye]

Interesting,so it is expected to remain a Tropical Wave.
But is it really expected to pass so far south that the NE Caribbean would not feel any effects?
And at which day is it expected to pass south of the NE Caribbean?
I just find it strange that this Wave is so overlooked(although the environment isn't the best).

I prefer to wait a couple of days to see how things are evolving in the Atlantic to see if the wave moves more faster or slows down and by doing that we can know better at what date it will pass south of us.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST WED SEP 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE MOVES VERY SLOWLY NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
REGION. LESLIE IS STILL EXPECTED TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN AND MEANDER
ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER.
FRAGMENTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO DISRUPT THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXPECTED LIGHT WIND PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH
DAY...PRODUCING SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS EACH
AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT NORTHEAST.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
THAT THE FA WILL RETURN TO A SOMEWHAT MORE NORMAL PATTERN WITH
SOUTHEAST TRADES. NO MAJOR OR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER IS IN
SIGHT APPROACHING THE REGION AT LEAST FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES DURG NXT 24 HRS.
SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VRB DURG THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS OF 10 KTS OR LESS AT TAF SITES NEAR
COAST. A LIGHT S-SW WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL BLO 20K FT. FEW TO ISOLD
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL ALONG CORDILLERA CENTRAL DURG AFTN BTW
05/17Z-05/22Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCURATIONS WITH
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 79 91 79 / 20 0 20 0
STT 89 78 89 80 / 0 0 10 10

[expat2carib]

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1447 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... A CARIBBEAN-WIDE TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT ...

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR

BRAZIL / BARBADOS / TRINIDAD TOBAGO / FRENCH GUIANA /
SAINT LUCIA / MARTINIQUE / ST VINCENT / DOMINICA / BARBUDA /
GUADELOUPE / MONTSERRAT / ANTIGUA / SAINT KITTS / ANGUILLA /
GRENADA / SAINT MARTIN / SAINT MAARTEN / DOMINICAN REP /
TURKS N CAICOS / BONAIRE / CURACAO / BAHAMAS / VENEZUELA /
HAITI / BERMUDA / SURINAME / ARUBA / CUBA / GUYANA / COLOMBIA /
JAMAICA / GRAND CAYMAN / CAYMAN BRAC / PANAMA / MEXICO /
HONDURAS / COSTA RICA / BELIZE / NICARAGUA / GUATEMALA

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

[expat2carib]

TSUNAMI MESSAGE NUMBER 2
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1450 UTC WED SEP 05 2012

THIS MESSAGE APPLIES TO COUNTRIES WITHIN AND BORDERING THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...EXCEPT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

... THE TSUNAMI WATCH IS CANCELLED ...

THIS BULLETIN IS ISSUED AS ADVICE TO GOVERNMENT AGENCIES. ONLY
NATIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT AGENCIES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MAKE
DECISIONS REGARDING THE OFFICIAL STATE OF ALERT IN THEIR AREA AND
ANY ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1442Z 05 SEP 2012
COORDINATES - 9.9 NORTH 85.5 WEST
LOCATION - OFF COAST OF COSTA RICA
MAGNITUDE - 7.9

EVALUATION

THE TSUNAMI WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS CANCELLED BECAUSE IT WAS
MEANT FOR THE PACIFIC AND WAS INADVERTANTLY SENT TO THE CARIBBEAN
BY MISTAKE. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS MAY HAVE
CAUSED.


THIS WILL BE THE FINAL PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE PACIFIC TSUNAMI
WARNING CENTER FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
BECOMES AVAILABLE.

[msbee]

SxmDCOMM - URGENT BROADCAST MESSAGE - Tsunami Watch for Sint Maarten Cancelled

From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 5 Sep 2012 11:43:37 -0400

News Release – URGENT RADIO BRADCAST

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org

For Immediate Release: Wednesday, September 05, 2012/N253 – RADIO BROADCAST

Tsunami Watch Cancelled

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – Disaster Coordinator Winston Salomon would like to inform the Sint Maarten community that a Tsunami Watch issued for the entire Caribbean by the US National Weather Service Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, has been cancelled.

An earthquake has occurred off Costa Rica measuring 7.6 in magnitude, on the Pacific coast of that country within the past hour.

The tsunami watch was initially meant for the Pacific and was inadvertently sent to the Caribbean by mistake by the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center.

There is no Tsunami Watch for Sint Maarten.

[Macrocane]

Hi! The earthquake in Costa Rica was also felt in El Salvador but no famages have occurred. In Costa Rica it's another story, and there are already reports of damages, I will try to update it when there's more info. Here's the thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=113639&p=2274114#p2274114

[cycloneye]

This is the brief discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about the next CV development.

The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

[cycloneye]

HurricaneFan,no mention of wave at afternoon San Juan NWS discussion.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST WED SEP 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...LITTLE CHANGE FORESEEN SYNOPTICALLY...AS A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL STORM LESLIE CONTINUES
MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED GENERALLY
FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. STILL EXPECT THE DIRECTIONALLY ALTERED AND LIGHT WIND
PATTERN DUE TO SLOW MOVING TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...TO RESULT IN
VERY GOOD SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH DAY...TO PRODUCE SOME
LIMITED CLOUDINESS AND LOCALIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT NORTHEAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY THAT THE FA WILL
RETURN TO A SOMEWHAT MORE NORMAL PATTERN WITH SOUTHEAST TRADES.

&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS
OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH ABOUT 05/22Z IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF MODERATE...NORTH NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED
FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES BEGINNING THURSDAY AND
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE
EXTENT OF THESE WILL STILL DEPEND ON THE FINAL TRACK...SPEED AND
INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE. PLEASE REFER TO SJUCWFSJU FOR
THE FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 78 90 / 0 20 0 20
STT 78 89 80 89 / 0 10 10 10

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends, let's enjoy these quiet days and fair weather . Whereas, we should not let our guard down as we're in the peak of the season now.

[cycloneye]

Hi my friends, let's enjoy these quiet days and fair weather . Whereas, we should not let our guard down as we're in the peak of the season now.

Yes,that is right. We are at peak time of the season and all eyes have to go to what is going on east of us. The models develop a Cape Verde wave by next week so let's see what track it takes if it develops. Of course all the information about that will be available at the best board of the net Storm2k and in particular in this thread,in talking Tropics forum and when is invest at Active Storms/invests forum.

[Gustywind]

Hi my friends, let's enjoy these quiet days and fair weather . Whereas, we should not let our guard down as we're in the peak of the season now.

Yes,that is right. We are at peak time of the season and all eyes have to go to what is going on east of us. The models develop a Cape Verde wave by next week so let's see what track it takes if it develops. Of course all the information about that will be available at the best board of the net Storm2k and in particular in this thread,in talking Tropics forum and when is invest at Active Storms/invests forum.

You're definitely right Cycloneye . It's always a pleasure to have a good time here. Any twaves must be monitored for sure. We appreciate your EXCELLENT job, and it's maybe an euphemisma . Stay in shape amigo !

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS
HURRICANE LESLIE MOVES VERY SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST WELL AWAY FROM
THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE A GENERALLY
FAIR...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH 90 DEGREES OR HIGHER IN SOME LOCATIONS. FRAGMENTS OF MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS FROM TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO
DISRUPT THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN... RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
EXPECTED LIGHT WIND PATTERN...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE EACH DAY...PRODUCING SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND ADJACENT AREAS EACH AFTERNOON...WHICH ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OR DRIFT NORTHEAST. IT STILL APPEARS THAT
IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THIS SUNDAY OR MONDAY THAT THE FA WILL RETURN
TO A SOMEWHAT MORE NORMAL PATTERN WITH SOUTHEAST TRADES. NO MAJOR OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER IS IN SIGHT APPROACHING THE REGION AT
LEAST FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES AND
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VRB DURG THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY LOCAL SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS OF 10 KTS OR LESS AT TAF SITES NEAR THE COAST. A LIGHT
S-SW WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL BLO 20K FT. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 90 79 / 20 10 10 0
STT 89 77 89 80 / 10 10 10 10