Global model runs discussion

Florida1118 · #4321 Postby **Florida1118** » Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:38 pm

rainstorm wrote:it still looks like the season is going to end early. i suppose something odd could pop up not shown on any models

The models haven't shown every storm and probably won't. Because they don't show anything now isn't a season cancel...

Riptide · #4322 Postby **Riptide** » Wed Sep 05, 2012 10:51 pm

I agree, we have yet the see the true peak of the season; expecting homebrew development as well as another African wave for the next 2 weeks.

#4323 Postby **SFLcane** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:11 am

Plenty of CV action still in long range models but till most recent runs everything follows in the huge weakness left behind by hurricane Leslie.

rainstorm · #4324 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:03 am

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp47.png

horrible pattern if you want anything to watch in the 2nd half of the season. it shows a few weak lows zooming way out to sea, but nothing of interest. finally, a huge neg NAO shows up which is a terrible pattern for home brews. you need a positive NAO with a huge high locked in the NW atlantic.

rainstorm · #4325 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:28 pm

here is the 12z gfs at 168. i dont have anything past that.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

this shows a positive NAO and a building NW atlantic ridge which should argue for further west movement.

rainstorm · #4326 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 12:36 pm

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp39.png

oh well, out sea, huge neg NAO, and an early end to the season if the NAO stays neg.

rainstorm · #4327 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:12 pm

http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/201 ... /slp41.png

slightly more appealing

#4328 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:01 pm

rainstorm wrote:http://tc.met.psu.edu/tcgengifs/GFS/2012090618/slp41.png

slightly more appealing

not to me

rainstorm · #4329 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 8:26 pm

good news is if it follows that track it will go over leslies cold wake.

MetroMike · #4330 Postby **MetroMike** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:56 pm

So what is exciting about that Rainstorm?

rainstorm · #4331 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 10:48 pm

MetroMike wrote:So what is exciting about that Rainstorm?

nothing. just saying if he wasnt looking forward to a hurricane it would be very weak if it followed leslies track.

#4332 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 11:51 am

The 12z GFS has all that comes out of Africa recurving away from the islands and CONUS. What we have to watch is if the models in future runs start to show development in the SW/Western Caribbean or off the East Coast as those areas are favored by late September going into October.

12z GFS Loop

#4333 Postby **mcheer23** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 6:14 pm

Last half of the season will be a fun one

ROCK · #4334 Postby **ROCK** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 7:22 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

interesting NOGAPS run...shows 91L recurving but something spins up in the WGOM and starts to move north...

blp · #4335 Postby **blp** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:42 am

06z GFS Long Range 384hrs shows development in the SW Carribean. It looks to orginate from a wave that goes through the Carribean. Still might be a little early for that area.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#4336 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:02 pm

I think it's safe to safe this is the quitest I have seen it in this forum at this time in the sesaon in many years. The peak of the Atlantic season is today and very few people are logged in (despite 2 systems in the Atlantic, and one on its way to getting named albeit those system pose no threat to where most people live who log into this board hence the lack of board interest). Global models continue to show basically nothing through the long-range (at least that threatens land) and it's been that way run after run after run the past 7 days+.

#4337 Postby **KBBOCA** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:55 pm

gatorcane wrote:I think it's safe to safe this is the quitest I have seen it in this forum at this time in the sesaon in many years. The peak of the Atlantic season is today and very few people are logged in (despite 2 systems in the Atlantic, and one on its way to getting named albeit those system pose no threat to where most people live who log into this board hence the lack of board interest). Global models continue to show basically nothing through the long-range (at least that threatens land) and it's been that way run after run after run the past 7 days+.

Personally, I'm glad for the quiet. I kind of ODed on Isaac and need to get back to real life for awhile. Isaac was a fascinating storm to watch, debate and try and figure out. My inner hurricane geek is sated for awhile!

------
Adding a P.S. to respond to MGC's comment below. Yes, I mean quiet on the forum, not in the tropics. There's a lot less discussion to read here and so I have more time for other stuff!

#4338 Postby **MGC** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:59 pm

Quiet? We have a hurricane, TS and likely a un-named TD right now...far from quiet.....MGC

Hurricaneman · #4339 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 7:23 pm

MGC wrote:Quiet? We have a hurricane, TS and likely a un-named TD right now...far from quiet.....MGC

I think he meant that the forum is quiet

FireRat · #4340 Postby **FireRat** » Mon Sep 10, 2012 9:11 pm

Just a reminder of how bad Septembers can be:

1928

VERY thankful to see no threats during this peak of the season!

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