Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

Good morning Luis. Thanks for the updates.
I particualrly like the text in blue

[Gustywind]

Good morning Luis. Thanks for the updates.
I particualrly like the text in blue

Me too Barbara

[cycloneye]

Read the blue paragraph about what to expect until the 15th.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A TUTT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TROP ATLC ACROSS
THE CARIB MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS LESLIE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING
IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND SUN. NOTE THAT GFS MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. MODELS INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING. MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT JSJ THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIG IMPACTS TO AIRCRAT OPERATIONS AT
JSJ.



&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS PROPAGATING FROM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK FRI. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW CWF CARRIES SEAS
UP TO 6 FT HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF SEP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DRIEST
ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF PR AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH DOMINATES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH SEP 15TH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 81 81 81 / 0 0 0 0

[Gustywind]

Read the blue paragraph about what to expect until the 15th.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST THU SEP 6 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO NEXT WEEK. A TUTT WILL THEN MOVE FROM THE TROP ATLC ACROSS
THE CARIB MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW THROUGH FRI NIGHT. AS LESLIE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE
TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY RESULTING
IN HOTTER TEMPERATURES FOR SAT AND SUN. NOTE THAT GFS MEX/MOS
GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 90. MODELS INDICATE
BEST MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVER THE WEEKEND...MODELS
SHOW MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING/STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA WITH A
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ESTABLISHING. MOISTURE ERODES QUICKLY
WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS BELOW TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. NOT ONLY PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
BUT ALSO CLOUDS. STRONG CAPPING HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRI
NIGHT ESPECIALLY AT JSJ THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL CAUSE SIG IMPACTS TO AIRCRAT OPERATIONS AT
JSJ.



&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS PROPAGATING FROM LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO REACH
THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND PEAK FRI. HOWEVER...THE SWELLS
WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW CWF CARRIES SEAS
UP TO 6 FT HOWEVER THESE MAY NEED TO BE REVISED.


&&

.CLIMATE...THE FIRST HALF OF SEP LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE DRIEST
ON RECORD FOR MUCH OF PR AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH DOMINATES. VERY
LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH SEP 15TH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 80 89 / 0 20 0 20
STT 81 81 81 81 / 0 0 0 0

IMPRESSIVE

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The stagnant weather pattern will continue in PR and the NE Caribbean for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
502 AM AST FRI SEP 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND
STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THEREAFTER
IT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TUTT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE OVERALL
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION CONTINUED TO BE DISRUPTED BY THE
INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE LESLIE AS WELL AS HURRICANE MICHAEL LOCATED TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE REGION RESPECTIVELY. THIS PATTERN HAS
AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FAIRLY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE LIMIT/SUPPRESS
ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS
AND REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO
CHANGE IN CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY AND DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY FEW SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BY THE WEEKEND...STILL EXPECT THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN/BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IN TURN WILL REINFORCE THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND CAPPING ACROSS LOCAL AREA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM ANY MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER PATTERN AND LOCAL ENVIRONMENT FAIRLY HOT AND DRY DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY IN THE
MORNING. AFTER 07/13Z...SFC-020K FT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT 10 KNOTS
OR LESS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT TJSJ...TJMZ...AND TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LONG PERIOD NORTHERLY SWELLS GENERATED FROM HURRICANE LESLIE
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...ARE SO FAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INVADE
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PEAKING ON SATURDAY...THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDING ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF AROUND 6-8
FT...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 78 / 10 0 20 0
STT 88 79 89 78 / 0 0 0 0

[Gustywind]

I don't what is the situation in the others islands of the Carib, but we should stay vigilant. See text below.

Nile fever: the West Indies called vigilance
France-Antilles Guadeloupe 06.09.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 185348.php

CONTAMINATION. In Guadeloupe, the presence of the virus was established in 2002. The samples and analyses carried out at this time revealed that 50% of the horses of the Department were HIV-positive, as well as 80% of the poultry. To this day, he does y no human contamination.

An important outbreak of West Nile is in progress at the United States. Health authorities recall that the context is favourable to the emergence of the disease here and invite physicians to vigilance.

In 2002 and 2003, the West Nile fever had defrayed the Chronicle by contaminating more than 10 000 people to the United States and, to a lesser extent, the Canada, killing more than 500 people. West Nile fever is back. A major epidemic is underway in the United States, including in Texas, but also in Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma: since the beginning of the year 2012, 1 118 cases have been listed, of which 41 were fatal.

The extension of the epidemic in the Caribbean is a hypothesis that concerned health authorities. The last Eve bulletin health (BVS) devotes an article, including awareness practitioners on this pathology. In 2002 - 2003, the possibility of the arrival of the Nile fever in Guadeloupe, via including migratory birds, had been raised. And this hypothesis had raised serious concerns. Because the conditions are here together so that this disease develops in the best.

HORSES AND CONTAMINATED POULTRY

Many have probably forgotten, but West Nile came well, at this time, in Guadeloupe. The presence of the virus was established in 2002, a joint study of the direction des Services Vétérinaires (DSV) and Cirad: analyses at the time revealed that 50% of the horses of the Department were HIV-positive, as well as 80% of the poultry. To date, no human contamination has yet been detected, but the West Nile remained under surveillance: Department indeed contains three species of culex mosquitoes, which can serve as a vector for virus.

The device of epidemiological surveillance of human cases - which exists in Guadeloupe and Martinique - is based on the monitoring of severe forms of the disease, encephalitis and meningitis in clear liquid. "Because of the current epidemiological situation in the United States, and given the quite favourable context of the Antilles French Guiana to the emergence of the disease, it seems necessary to raise again clinicians on this device", indicates the bulletin of health monitoring.


-Sometimes fatal encephalitis

The most often asymptomatic in humans, the viral infection may cause a febrile syndrome Koplik and occasionally aseptic meningitis or sometimes fatal encephalitis, especially among the elderly. The symptomatic forms are less than 20% of infections. Among these symptomatic forms, between 4 and 11% will be severe neurologic forms.


-Via migratory birds

As dengue fever, the Nile fever discovered in 1935 in Uganda, is an arbovirus, i.e. a virus transmitted by arthropods, bugs in common language. We know his main mode of transmission. The virus is "stored" in aquatic birds - which are the tank-, then collected by the mosquitoes that coexist with the same bodies of water birds and transmitted to humans by bite. Number of tanks birds are migratory, and perform thousands of miles: it is sufficient that they are in their stages one of the species of mosquito vectors (43 species, but mainly the culex) so that the virus can settle and grow.


-Physicians, be careful

Since 2003, a system of epidemiological surveillance of human cases exists in Guadeloupe and Martinique. It is based on the monitoring of severe forms of the disease, encephalitis and meningitis in clear liquid. Because of the current epidemiological situation in the United States, it seems necessary to educate clinicians on this device. Thus suspected before cases be reported to sleep and health emergency platforms of ARS and the search for the virus activated without delay by sending biological samples to the Pasteur Institute of Guyana, CNR of Arboviruses, laboratory for the Antilles-Guyane.

But that is a suspected case? It's an adult (15 years and more), hospitalized with a cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) clear. This liquid was collected by a febrile State - fever at or above 38 ° 5 - associated neurological manifestations of type encephalitis, meningitis, AIDP, or acute flaccid paralysis.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, is PR is dealing with this feature? Any news about that?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, is PR is dealing with this feature? Any news about that?

The good news here is that no cases have been reported so far,but the authorities are in vigilance.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, is PR is dealing with this feature? Any news about that?

The good news here is that no cases have been reported so far,but the authorities are in vigilance.

Glad to see that . Same situation in the butterfly island .

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST FRI SEP 7 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER IT WILL SHIFT WESTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
TUTT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN FROM THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL
REGION WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS DUE TO
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH...NOT ONLY CONTINUES
OVER THE LOCAL AREA...BUT ALSO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC WEATHER FEATURE...IN
COMBINATION WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...HAVE CONTRIBUTE TO
HIGHER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PW VALUES REMAINING NEAR 1.4 INCHES OR LESS AND
THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 325K THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. THEREFORE...LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED...WITH
THE ONLY CHANCE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS ARE
FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE 10TH OF SEPTEMBER IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
SPEAKING...THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AT
JSJ WHERE A N WIND DUE TO SEA BREEZE EFFECTS IS EXPECTED.

.CLIMATE...THE AVG TEMP SO FAR THIS YEAR AT THE LMM SJU INTL ARPT
HAS BEEN 81.2F DEGS. THIS REPRESENTS THE 6TH WARMEST START TO A YEAR
ON RECORD. THE WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD EVER WAS 1983 WHEN THE AVG
TEMP WAS 82.4 DEGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 88 78 90 / 0 20 0 10
STT 78 88 77 89 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 10%

A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

2 AM TWO up to 20%

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A TUTT LOW ABOUT 1400 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SAN
JUAN. THE LOW WILL SPIN OFF A LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE TONIGHT WHICH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TO OUR WEST ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FORMS A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST RIDGE WITH THE
SOUTHERN END OVER CUBA MID WEEK BUT HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS WILL MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY MID WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE BAHAMAS BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MID
LEVELS REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODELS SHOW HURRICANE MICHAEL JOINING TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE OR RUNNING AHEAD OF IT AND DISSIPATING TO THE
NORTHEAST IN MID LATITUDE FLOW. A DISTURBANCE NOW NEAR 21 WEST
WILL MOVE WEST BUT VEER NORTH ON THURSDAY. A SECOND DISTURBANCE
ABOUT 1200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST WILL FORM IN THE EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND TURN NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE
THE LOCAL AREA TO REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SMALL AND LIGHT SHOWERS FORMED IN THE ATLANTIC
NEAR SHORE WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND DRIFTED EAST
NORTHEAST...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WERE DRY. THE GENERALLY DRY
WEATHER...WITH EXCEPTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
INTERIOR...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A
BAND OF MOISTURE THAT PASSES OVER PUERTO RICO MID WEEK THAT MAY
ENHANCE SHOWERS IF IT VERIFIES. THE NORTHWARD MOVING TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE PULLS A COLD FRONT TO AS FAR SOUTH AS 24 NORTH NORTH
OF HISPANIOLA...AND THIS WILL HAVE A DRYING EFFECT OVER THE AREA EXCEPT
WHERE THE BAND OF SHOWERS HANGING SOUTHWEST FROM WHAT MAY BE
NADINE BY LATE NEXT WEEK RUNS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. AT THIS TIME
HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS AFTER 08/12Z WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. AN AFTERNOON
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CAUSE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL PUERTO RICO.


&&

.MARINE...SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE TODAY AS TROPICAL STORM
LESLIE MOVES NORTH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE WATERS EXPOSED TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE AS CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WILL RE-INTENSIFY AND MAY REATTAIN
HURRICANE STRENGTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 88 79 / 10 10 10 0
STT 88 78 88 78 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO up to 30%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS
SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

This wave is now invest 91L. Follow the progress of this system on the Invest 91L discussion thread at Active Storms/invests forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113664&p=2274875#p2274875

[cycloneye]

Here is the Issac local report that the San Juan NWS made.Nothing bad occured here in terms of extensive damage nor deaths.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/sju/even ... /Isaac.pdf

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO up to 40%

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
CROSSING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15 TO 20 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST SAT SEP 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TRADE WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
BEEN OBSERVED. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING
PER LATEST TJSJ 08/12Z SOUNDING...WITH VALUES NEAR 1.74
INCHES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS EXISTS AT MID TO UPPER LEVEL OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES IN TOTAL CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO LAST TO
AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BRING PATCHES
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION NEXT WEEK. FOR NEXT
WEEK...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. MOST MODELS MOVE
THIS SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST FAR AWAY FROM THE
CARIBBEAN. AS A SPECIAL NOTE...THE 10TH OF SEPTEMBER IS
CLIMATOLOGICALL SPEAKING...THE PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH NO SIG WX. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR LOCAL SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS. WHILE CONVECTION HAS NOT
DEVELOPED YET ISOLD-SCT TSTMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN SLOPES
WITH MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NNE AROUND 4 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 88 79 90 / 10 10 0 10
STT 82 88 77 89 / 0 0 0 0

[Macrocane]

If it wasn't enough a 6.7 earthquake in El Salvador a couple of weeks ago and a 7.6 in Costa Rica this week, San Cristobal volcano erupted this morning in Nicaragua, fortunately no major damages or deaths have been reported, more info and videos here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=113668

[cycloneye]

:eek: If it wasn't enough a 6.7 earthquake in El Salvador a couple of weeks ago and a 7.6 in Costa Rica this week, San Cristobal volcano erupted this morning in Nicaragua, fortunately no major damages or deaths have been reported, more info and videos here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=113668

Wow,mother nature is expressing in a big way in that region. Hopefully nothing more than what has happened occurs.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO

Remains at 40%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 MPH.