Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on September 7 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Warmer than normal in Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal in Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.7°C (49.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.1°C (71.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.5°C (43.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.4°C (61.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34.0°C (93.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.0°C (82.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.0°C (93.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.7°C (81.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.0°C (91.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.8°C (91.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.4°C (79.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
521 AM AST SUN SEP 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND MODEL DATA
SUGGESTS THAT TODAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. GFS
FORECAST SOUNDING VALID AT 09/12Z INDICATES THAT PWAT VALUES WILL
BE DOWN TO 1.08 INCHES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
DRY...SO LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

THIS SAME DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AND LINGERING LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOWER END HOWEVER...SINCE THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING...LOCATION...AND HOW DEEP THIS BAND OF MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA REALLY IS. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC. MOST MODELS MOVE THIS SYSTEM WEST-
NORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST...FAR AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THRU 10/06Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EAST SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS MOST AIRPORTS. SOME
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED INTERIOR PR BTWN 09/17-09/22Z WITH MTN
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR.


&&

.MARINE...BUOY DATA AS WELL AS MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SEAS
HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THOUGH
AS SEAS AROUND 6 FEET ARE STILL BEING REPORTED AT THE SAN JUAN BUOY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 10 0 10 0
STT 88 77 89 79 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD

A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N25W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 15N27W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-17N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

8 AM TWO

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO



SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY
FAVORABLE...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD
HINDER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

2 PM TWD


A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW IS ANALYZED A COUPLE
OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 23N27W TO
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR 13N28W...MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THIS
SYSTEM COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...AROUND THE OCEANIC MONSOONAL
GYRE DESCRIBED BELOW. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 9N-19N BETWEEN 26W-35W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST SUN SEP 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE. TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AND MOVE OVER PR WED NIGHT. MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TOMORROW BEFORE HEIGHTS FALL
IN RESPONSE TO RETROGRESSING TUTT. MODELS SHOW TUTT SLOWLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WED AND THU YIELDING MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
MAINLY SOUTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND AND CARIBBEAN WATERS. NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LITTLE RAINFALL PERHAPS ON
THU WHEN STEERING WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. RIDGE STRENGTHENS
AGAIN FRI WITH A RETURN TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX.


&&

.MARINE...NORTH SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH SEAS EXPECTED TO DROP IN
THE 2-4 FT RANGE OFFSHORE AND 1-3 FT NEARSHORE GENERATED BY LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 92 78 89 / 0 10 0 10
STT 80 88 80 88 / 0 0 0 10

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on September 8 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Near normal in Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.8°C (60.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.6°C (47.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.8°C (65.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.8°C (62.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal in Honduras and Panama. Cooler than normal in Guatemala and El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.7°C (65.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31.9°C (89.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.3°C (82.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.5°C (90.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.9°C (62.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.3°C (88.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.2°C (90.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.2°C (77.4°F)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO up to 50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 990 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE...DRY
AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE COULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

2 AM TWO up to 70%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 675 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY. TUTT LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL RETROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND MOVE OVER PR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MID UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
ESTABLISH AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT
HAPPENED YESTERDAY. THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO HAVE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND THEREFORE A HIGHER CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMPARED TO COASTAL AREAS. FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN AREAS
OF SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA STARTING
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY STAY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MEANS THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT NECESSARILY MORE INTENSE THAT WHAT WE HAVE
HAD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE APPROACHING TUTT LOW
LATE IN TH WEEK...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE A BIT.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
EAST SOUTHEAST...LAND/SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS
MOST AIRPORTS. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WILL OCCUR AFT 10/17Z INTERIOR
PUERTO RICO IN SHRA/TSRA WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...NORTHERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AND THE LOCAL BUOYS
INDICATE THAT THE SEAS ARE NOW AT 5 FEET OR LESS. SEAS OF 5 FEET
OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 10 0 10 10
STT 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 10 30

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO at 90%

2 PM TWO:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO BE WELL
ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL
RELOCATE TO THE BAHAMAS AS TUTT LOW ACROSS 55W RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR/USVI. TUTT THEN FILLS ON THU WITH STRONG RIDGE EXPECTED TO
BUILD AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WITH AXIS ALONG 55W WILL RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR/USVI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND PROVIDE SOME MID LEVEL
COOLING/DESTABILIZATION FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAINLY WED AND THU DESPITE LACK OF MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE
JUST A SHORT/TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER AS TUTT
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN THU WITH STRONG RIDGE BUILDING AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MONTH.

INVEST 91L IS FCST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME A LARGE AND INTENSE
HURRICANE AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL
WAVE TO THE EAST OF INVEST 91L IS FCST TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN
ROUTE AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MAKING IT FARTHER WEST AT A LOWER
LATITUDE THAN INVEST 91L. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GFES ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS SECOND SYSTEM EVENTUALLY RECURVING AND GETTING ABSORBED
BY THE LARGER INVEST 91L. OVERALL...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPERIENCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WELL BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL WITH NO SIG CHANGES TO THIS PATTERN EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER
SEP 20TH

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT OFFSHORE AND 1-3 FT NEARSHORE.
ISOLD-SCT TSTMS EXPECTED MID WEEK CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 78 91 / 0 20 10 10
STT 80 88 80 88 / 0 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook


A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE
LESSER ANTILLES...CONTINUES TO SHOWS SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. ONLY A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE... 90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on September 9 2012, the highs were comfortably cool in most of the region thanks to a rainy and cloudy day:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Guatemala and Nicaragua. Near normal in El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in Panama.

Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 10.2°C (50.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.9°C (73.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.3°C (66.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.4°C (56.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.3°C (41.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 15.6°C (60.1°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Panama. Near normal in Belize and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Costa Rica.

Belize city, Belize 30.7°C (87.3°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 21.4°C (70.5°F) Coolest since July 8
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 19.5°C (67.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31.6°C (88.9°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 26.1°C (79.0°F) Coolest since June 19
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.6°C (69.1°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F) Coolest since July 8
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F) Coolest since June 23
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.8°C (76.6°F) Coolest since July 29
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.3°C (54.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F) Coolest since June 12
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.0°C (77.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE A BIT
TO THE WEST AS A TUTT LOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS RETROGRESS TOWARD
PR/USVI. TUTT THEN FILLS ON THU WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
AREA...BRINGING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND AROUND
THE USVI IN THE MORNING...THEN ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHICH MEANS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE OR HAVE A VERY LONG
LIFE SPAN...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE
HAD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

THE APPROACHING TUTT WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ARES
WHICH WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

INVEST 91L CONTINUES TO SHOW SINGS OF ORGANIZATION AND IT MAY SOON
BE CATEGORIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS OF 200 AM AST...THIS
SYSTEM HAD A 90 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SOON AND THEN CONTINUE
MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH...TAKING IT INTO THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...FAR FROM THE LOCAL AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ACROSS THE LOCAL TAF SITES. AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF PR MAY CAUSE MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 11/16Z AND 11/23Z.
WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY IN THE MORNING WITH A NORTHEASTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT 16 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE AREA WATERS TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 80 88 80 / 20 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ALLOWING TUTT TO SLOWLY RETROGRESS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DRY ADVECTION THIS MORNING HAS HELPED TO
DELAY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SOME TOWERING CUMULUS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO THIS
AFTERNOON. ATTM...RADAR DOPPLER ONLY INDICATES SHOWERS DOWNWIND OF
ST THOMAS AND ST CROIX. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION COVERING MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND A TUTT LOW
JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLES. AS THE TUTT RETROGRESS
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SURFACE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS
THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK. FORECAST MODELS
THEN SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION...
WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO CLUSTER ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR/NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE
THIS MORNING. IT WAS MOVING MAINLY WEST AT 10 MPH. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FROM NHC SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE TURNING
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AFTER 1930Z AFFECTING TJMZ AND VICINITY OF TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...SMALL NORTHEAST GROUNDSWELL OF
AROUND 2 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH TS MICHAEL WILL REACH THE LOCAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY. THEN...NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH TD #14 WILL INVADE
OUR WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SEAS
BUT IT APPEARS NOW THAT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 10 20
STT 79 89 79 88 / 30 30 10 10

[cycloneye]

This is the updated data of rainfall in 2012 until September 1rst and shows above normal rainfall is still dominating the year stats even though the past few weeks,it has been mainly dry. Let's see how the rest of the year behaves in the rainfall data.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
528 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON
THURSDAY. TROUGHINESS WILL FADE ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES UNTIL
AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS... AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN
BEHIND IT. BY SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM CUBA TO THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THEN LITTLE
CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC AND DRIFT EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA
THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 10 DAYS. TROPICAL STORM NADINE WILL INCREASE
IN INTENSITY AND MOVE NORTHWEST...PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL
AREA THURSDAY AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH. ON SATURDAY A WEAK RIDGE
WILL FORM OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH A NORTHWEST/SOUTHEAST
ORIENTATION. THIS RIDGE WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE SUBSEQUENT
5 DAYS LEAVING THE AREA IN GENTLE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED OVERNIGHT BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN MUCH THE SAME
AREAS AS THE MIMIC PRODUCT INDICATED THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE BANDS
EXISTED. CURRENT SATELLITE AND MIMIC LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THESE
BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS. TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS
ALREADY MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY TO
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS MEANS THAT IT
WILL LIKELY COME NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 800 MILES FROM SAINT JOHN
MIDDAY ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DIMINISHING PRESSURE
AND WIND FIELD. AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED BY IT
WILL INCREASE AND ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. NO
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREA IN THE NEXT 10
DAYS BUT BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM NADINE WILL CROSS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE MOST OF THE WEATHER EXPERIENCED
BY THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE PRODUCED BY THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
CYCLE AND THE GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FORCED BY THE NORTH-
SOUTH GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AND THE LOW OVER COLOMBIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR APPEARS IN THE MODELS ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 12/17Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AFTER 12/17Z AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJPS. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BUT
WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY DAYTIME SEA BREEZES.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH THEM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A RISE IN SEAS IN
THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WAVES FROM NADINE MOVE INTO
THE LOCAL WATERS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL LEAVE SEAS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 20 30 20
STT 88 78 89 79 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
331 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH
FRIDAY. BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...ANOTHER MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN/TROPICAL ATLANTIC LINGERING
AT LEAST THROUGH MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...EXPECT DIURNAL
PROCESSES TO DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ALOFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N 63W. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT
ANALYSIS SHOWS DECENT MOISTURE UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
PWAT VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES. AS THE TUTT MOVES
OVER THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...SURFACE WIND FLOW WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. THIS HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
ENOUGH TO FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
USVI...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...
EXPECT WETTER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

TS NADINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OPEN ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITHOUT AFFECTING THE LOCAL REGION. THE OFFICIAL TRAJECTORY
OF NADINE WILL KEEP ITS CENTER WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL REGION...
BUT THE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS...WILL INVADE THE ATLANTIC OFFSHORE
WATERS FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS CONTINUED DURG THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE FORECAST THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING. THEN...NORTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
TS NADINE WILL INVADE OUR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SLIGHTLY ROUGHER SEAS BUT IT APPEARS NOW THAT CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 20 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 88 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

Hi, the temperatures in Central America on September 11 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala, Honduras and Costa Rica. Cooler than normal in El Salvador.

Belize city, Belize 27.0°C (80.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.2°C (61.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 8.9°C (48.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.8°C (73.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 13.0°C (55.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.1°C (70.0°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.2°C (41.4°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.8°C (64.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. Near normal in Guatemala. Cooler than normal in Costa rica.

Belize city, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32.6°C (90.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 30.9°C (87.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.6°C (72.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.2°C (46.8°F) Coldest since March 6
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.0°C (77.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY. HOWEVER HIGH
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NADINE AND THAT OVER THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WILL SQUEEZE THE LOW OUT BY SATURDAY SUCH THAT
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GIVE WAY TO
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE EAST ONCE NADINE HAS MOVED NORTH
OUT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN DOMINATE
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA BY
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER COLOMBIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE GFS IS SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM
WILL FORM IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK AND MOVE VERY
SIMILAR TO THE TRACK OF NADINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MIMIC PRODUCT HAS BEEN SHOWING INCREASING
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...SOME OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM NADINE OR THE WAVE THAT GENERATED IT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE AT LOW LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECIDED
WEAKNESS IN MOISTURE AT MID LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY TODAY AND
TOMORROW...BUT MODELS SHOW THE LIFTED INDEX BECOMING MORE STABLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES INTO
THE AREA WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS 40 WEST
TODAY. THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH LATE NEXT FRIDAY AT
LEAST...BREAKING A DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD AND ADDING MOISTURE
NOT JUST TO THE LOWER LEVELS BUT ALSO TO THE REST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE NEXT FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE AFRICAN
COAST ON FRIDAY AND DEVELOP...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
GUIDANCE...INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT FOLLOWS CLOSELY IN THE
PATH OF T.S. NADINE. SO CLOSELY IN FACT...THAT THE 13/00Z POSITION
OF NADINE AND THE 23/00Z POSITION OF THIS CYCLONE ARE BUT 215
MILES APART IN THE GFS. INTERMEDIATE MODEL RUNS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT...SO AS ALWAYS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE FORMATION AND TRACK OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE IS RATHER
LESS UNCERTAINTY HOWEVER ABOUT OUR WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE WEST.

MOS HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND
WITH NO DAYS UNDER 90 DEGREES SINCE 3 SEPTEMBER HAVE RAISED
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT SAN JUAN BACK TO 90 DEGREES THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY. SHOULD WINDS TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NAM SUGGESTS...TEMPERATURES MAY REACH 91 OR
92 DEGREES AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 13/17Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN
INTERIOR AFTER 13/17Z AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJPS AND OBSCURING HIGHER TERRAIN.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT PROJECTIONS DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEAS OF 7 FEET OR
GREATER IN THE NEXT 10 DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME SWELL WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM NADINE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST HEIGHTS MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN JUST UNDER 7 FEET. SHOULD SEAS RISE
ABOVE THE MODEL FORECASTS AT BUOYS 41043 OR 41044 THIS FORECAST
MAY BE REVISED UPWARD AND WILL...OF COURSE...DEPEND ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTO A HURRICANE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 30 20 10
STT 88 78 89 78 / 30 40 20 20