Global model runs discussion

[tolakram]

Last half of the season will be a fun one

Elaborate please.

Maybe he means will be as fun as watching paint dry.

Watching paint dry on a house not destroyed by a hurricane sounds like fun to me. I bet many people who live on the coast will agree.

I think the commentary about how "good" or "bad" the season is or how "good" or "bad" a storm is needs to stop. Hurricane season isn't a sport.

[hcane27]

Maybe he means will be as fun as watching paint dry.

Watching paint dry on a house not destroyed by a hurricane sounds like fun to me. I bet many people who live on the coast will agree.

I think the commentary about how "good" or "bad" the season is or how "good" or "bad" a storm is needs to stop. Hurricane season isn't a sport.

I agree ... having had several trees in house from hurricanes .... maybe we should have a forum just for researchers ..... that way the "regular" people don't have to see the "fun" , "exciting" type discussions ..... which between research types is not meant to be a "bad" conversation .....

[cycloneye]

The 9/12/12 run at 12z of GFS is loaded with systems from CV origin to SW/Western Caribbean development,but is on long range so that is the downside of the run. Let's see consistency and if other models join,then is another story.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[tolakram]

GFS continues to want to develop the next wave that comes off Africa.

[LarryWx]

Per just about all of the various model runs over the last few days, the current pattern is about as safe a pattern as there can be in mid to late Sep. as far as US threats are concerned. For those who want more excitement in these parts, it is about as boring as can be for this time of year. None of the 16 day GFS runs are even showing much of anything and it has been that way for most runs the last few days. Perhaps we can thank (or curse depending on one's perspective) the weak El Nino for this? The very strong troughing being forecasted to drop down into the Midwest and persist isn't exactly the most conducive for a very active SE US tropical landfalling pattern as there will be a lot of strong upper level winds dipping pretty far south. For those who want more excitement here, please don't shoot the messenger. For those who like it quiet, please bless the messenger lol.

[gatorcane]

Larry, I agree, there is definitely alot of deep troughing over Eastern North America for the rest of September according to the GFS runs that I have been looking at. Where we need to start watching soon is the Western Caribbean/SW Caribbean though and for systems to move northward especially as we move into October. By no means is this season done as far as landfalling systems is concerned.

[cycloneye]

GFS keeps showing development in Western Caribbean on long range.

[Anthysteg00]

Did everyone here forget Opal or Wilma? Cycloneye has consistently shown proof of a western Caribbean threat....

[superstareporter]

Did everyone here forget Opal or Wilma? Cycloneye has consistently shown proof of a western Caribbean threat....

I feel pretty confident we will not see an Opal, the Gulf just inst as ripe this year as it was in that year. I remember that year Opal hit and the waters were like bath water. This year, it chills me to even enter the gulf. I love it that the only things showing on models right now is la la land stuff, and even then they are not very strong.

Usual Disclaimer inserted here.

[cycloneye]

A much stronger run from GFS at 18z in Western Caribbean but again is very long range. Climatology favors the area so let's see if GFS continues to show it and other models join.

[Anthysteg00]

Where does GFS favor landfall with that pattern?

[blp]

Cycloneye, 18z is much stronger. The strongest so far. Still in the 300hr range, so I am little skeptical but has been getting more consistent.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Every run the GFS just pushes back the Caribbean development to 384 hours.

[cycloneye]

Every run the GFS just pushes back the Caribbean development to 384 hours.

Actually,it starts the developing at 300 hours.See loop.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[cycloneye]

Being long range is a nightmare to follow the models as they change every six hours with a new run and that is what is happening with GFS. I prefer to follow them from 144 hours and lower and by that timeframe you get the other global models data to compare.

[somethingfunny]

It actually looks like the GFS is taking that next wave to emerge from Africa which it develops in about a week as a weak system... degenerates the system.... and it is the wave that redevelops in the Western Caribbean. Assumes that the wave doesn't develop more deeply and therefore get carried away by this extremely troughy pattern in the mid-latitudes.

Now that it's latched onto an actual system and timeframe, I'll raise my interest level from 1/10 to 2/10.

[cycloneye]

When you see this thread very quiet it means that the models dont show anything of interest in the North Atlantic basin. That continues to be the case as the reliable models GFS/ECMWF dont have anything of significance thru the next 10 days.

[somethingfunny]

Maybe a candidate for Oscar coming this week, actually. Looks like a cutoff low tries to work down to the surface as it drifts towards Bermuda, before getting picked up by the next trough over the weekend.

[ROCK]

in like a Lion and out like a Lamb.... cant rule out a late season Oct surprise for SOFLO though....slowly coming to an end...

[cycloneye]

While we wait to see when GFS/ECMWF will show developing scenarios in the future,here is some entretainment by the super long range CFS.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/ ... RES=0&WMO=