ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[hurricanes1234]

Latest (Visible, AVN Colour, Shortwave IR, Rainbow) at 13:45

Something is wrong with the satellite images - it is clearly not 13:45 right now, because UTC is 4 hours ahead of AST, and right now it is 1:30 PM AST. Hope it isn't down for days like the last time this glitch occurred.

[cycloneye]

Latest (Visible, AVN Colour, Shortwave IR, Rainbow) at 13:45

Something is wrong with the satellite images - it is clearly not 13:45 right now, because UTC is 4 hours ahead of AST, and right now it is 1:30 PM AST. Hope it isn't down for days like the last time this glitch occurred.

Those images have been saved as they have been uploaded with imageshack.us.

[hurricanes1234]

Latest (Visible, AVN Colour, Shortwave IR, Rainbow) at 13:45

Something is wrong with the satellite images - it is clearly not 13:45 right now, because UTC is 4 hours ahead of AST, and right now it is 1:30 PM AST. Hope it isn't down for days like the last time this glitch occurred.

Those images have been saved as they have been uploaded with imageshack.us.

But look at the 2 PM updates - they are grey!

[hurricanes1234]

They're fixed now, but look at one of them just less than 30 minutes ago.

[wolfpack2105]

is it just me or does she seem to be forming an eye?

[hurricanes1234]

is it just me or does she seem to be forming an eye?

Where are you getting the satellite images? The NHC satellite imagery stopped updating about 6 hours ago.

[cycloneye]

is it just me or does she seem to be forming an eye?

Where are you getting the satellite images? The NHC satellite imagery stopped updating about 6 hours ago.

You can see images that update every half an hour on the NRL Navy site.


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

[cycloneye]

Remains at 60kts on the 18z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012091318, , BEST, 0, 233N, 526W, 60, 990, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

You guys were right - 65-70 mph is the magic number for this season. The storms are usually fine before 65 mph, but once that strength is met, most of them go from there.

[hurricanes1234]

Another storm that is too large to strengthen much further - the potential of Nadine becoming nothing other than this is about 80% right now, IMO. Throughout the first day or two of their lives, the storms pretend to be organizing quickly and rapidly, and everybody is saying "Yeah!", but it only stalls after that.

EDIT: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest

[Comanche]

These storms look so beautiful on visible imagery.......... deadly beauty.

[Cyclenall]

You guys were right - 65-70 mph is the magic number for this season. The storms are usually fine before 65 mph, but once that strength is met, most of them go from there.

Yes, just under hurricane strength is when the wall comes up in front of them. Last night it was holding steady and its appearance hasn't changed much since then. I notice its convection is asymmetrical and having a tough time wrapping the convection around the elongated eyewall that is open to the south. The latest Windsat shows the center even more disorganized than a few hours eariler...not a good sign for Nadine.

I'm sorry if my last post was taken the wrong way, that wasn't directed at you specifically but to everyone.

Now that Nadine has reached that magic number of 55 knots, it will struggle. It appears steady right now so the waiting begins on this one.... NOT OFFICIAL!

Things are progressing exactly the way I expected them to, Nadine is now struggling after reaching below hurricane strength. I'm not certain if its the dry air around it but its following the classic 2012 pattern. I see the NHC forecast now shows less time as a hurricane so this could be the first step to the forecast intensity continually lowering like Leslie.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track stays at 60kts.

AL, 14, 2012091400, , BEST, 0, 244N, 534W, 60, 989, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

Beginning to doubt Nadine attaining hurricane status. Something this year is definitely prohibiting these systems from intensifying. Maybe you guys were correct - Nadine is just becoming another underachieving storm, pretty much like Leslie and many storms before it. Of course, all storms, whether weak or strong, are absolutely beautiful, but it gets frustrating when they never live up to their expectations. I am sure all weather enthusiasts here understand what I mean by this.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[MGC]

Nadine looks very close to becoming a hurricane IMO. Convection is robust and outflow looks good. I expect the cyclone to attain hurricane status sometime on Friday......MGC

Of course the above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[Hammy]

concerning the underachieving, I think the models seem to be underestimating the wind shear and dry air (both things that are fairly difficult to forecast). It has been quite active though, considering its El Nino

also from the discussion
"MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. "
i.e. yet another system fails to strengthen until it exits the tropics

[Florida1118]

concerning the underachieving, I think the models seem to be underestimating the wind shear and dry air (both things that are fairly difficult to forecast). It has been quite active though, considering its El Nino

also from the discussion
"MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. "
i.e. yet another system fails to strengthen until it exits the tropics

It didn't really underachieve, its called forecast error. The NHC never expected it to get all that strong past a Cat.1 anyway, and its still not an el nino.

[hurricanes1234]

concerning the underachieving, I think the models seem to be underestimating the wind shear and dry air (both things that are fairly difficult to forecast). It has been quite active though, considering its El Nino

also from the discussion
"MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. "
i.e. yet another system fails to strengthen until it exits the tropics

It didn't really underachieve, its called forecast error. The NHC never expected it to get all that strong past a Cat.1 anyway, and its still not an el nino.

Yes, it did underachieve. Can't you clearly see that it is stuck at 70 mph, when a forecast more than 24 hours ago showed it attaining hurricane status within 12 hours? I agree with what Hammy is saying - it has an underachieving history so far. From the time it cannot intensify, despite all forecasts for strengthening, it is considered underachieving, in other words, not achieving the hurricane status within those 12 hours.

[tolakram]

From the 11AM discussion

THESE MODELS INDICATE
THAT SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD
GIVE NADINE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE
FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...MODELS.

Is this the first mention of the HFIP in a discussion?