Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
330 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRESS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW/TUTT
WILL FADE ON LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TUTT SPINNING JUST NORTH OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WITH A COUPLE OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES HAVE
BEEN ESTIMATED ALONG THE RIO CULEBRINAS BASIN AS WELL AS THE RIO
GRANDE DE MANATI BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OBSERVED OVER CAROLINA AND SAN JUAN...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. GFS 12Z TIME SERIES SHOWED PWAT VALUES
RANGING BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...
DECREASING TO 1.4 INCHES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DECENT MOISTURE
CONTENT COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
FUEL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO...WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION CLUSTERING ACROSS THE CENTRAL...NORTH AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS AND PATCHES OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

TROPICAL STORM NADINE IS MOVING NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN
GRADUALLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THIS MEANS THAT IT WILL LIKELY COME NO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 800 MILES
FROM SAINT JOHN ON FRIDAY. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE A DIMINISHING
PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. AS IT PROCEEDS NORTHWEST SWELL GENERATED
BY IT WILL INCREASE AND ARRIVE IN THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF TJBQ AND
TJSJ THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET...LEAVING THE FLIGHT AREA UNDER SCT CLOUDS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...CURRENT MARINE FORECAST REFLECTS SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TS NADINE WILL GENERATE NORTHEAST
SWELLS THAT REACH THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE FRIDAY. ATTM...
THERE IS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN WAVE HEIGHTS HIGHER THAN 6 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 90 77 90 / 30 30 20 30
STT 79 89 78 88 / 40 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Another geological event in Central America as Volcan de Fuego in Guatemala had a significant eruption today, more info with videos and links here: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=113701

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
542 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRESS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. UPPER LOW/TUTT
WILL FADE ON LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES
ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUES UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL PROCESSES WILL DOMINATE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF PUERTO RICO...BUT MOST ACTIVITY WAS MOVING QUICKLY. EARLY
IN THE MORNING HOURS...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO. THIS GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY NEAR 45 WEST LONGITUDE EARLY
THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PW VALUES
WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.25 INCHES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE.
THEREFORE...A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO DOMINATES THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT WEEK...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 2 WEEKS
OF THE MONTH WHICH HAVE BEEN VERY DRY AND HOT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...OTHER THAN TROPICAL STORM NADINE WHICH IS MOVING OVER
THE OPEN WATERS...NO DEVELOPMENT ARE FORECAST IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS...SOME VCSH...WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 14/16Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AFTER 14/17Z AFFECTING TJMZ AND TJPS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE AND LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...THEN BECOMING MAINLY EAST TO AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS NEAR STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
STT 87 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye, I think that desesperatly most of the EC need some rain . A small drought as appeared in Guadeloupe and in some localities included mine. For example, the grass is really burnt! Our Meteo Pro Mets of Guadeloupe/ Martinica agree on this twave to bring strong showers and tstorms Monday. For the moment, looks like no computers developp it. So not so bad for us in the islands. Anyway, we should keep an eye on it in case of.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow:
Cycloneye, I think that desesperatly most of the EC need some rain . A small drought as appeared in Guadeloupe and in some localities included mine. For example, the grass is really burnt! Our Meteo Pro Mets of Guadeloupe/ Martinica agree on this twave to bring strong showers and tstorms Monday. For the moment, looks like no computers developp it. So not so bad for us in the islands. Anyway, we should keep an eye on it in case of.

Yes Gusty. Hopefully, a more rainy pattern comes to the islands to end the mini drought.

[Gustywind]

:uarrow:
Cycloneye, I think that desesperatly most of the EC need some rain . A small drought as appeared in Guadeloupe and in some localities included mine. For example, the grass is really burnt! Our Meteo Pro Mets of Guadeloupe/ Martinica agree on this twave to bring strong showers and tstorms Monday. For the moment, looks like no computers developp it. So not so bad for us in the islands. Anyway, we should keep an eye on it in case of.

Yes Gusty. Hopefully, a more rainy pattern comes to the islands to end the mini drought.

Right+1 Cycloneye and that's the good news. Water is our new guest, let's hope for that

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 765 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 735 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[msbee]

It doesn't have to be a hurricane or tropical storm for the weather to cause some damage.
Bermuda is hit with gale force winds and rain and flooding.



and see article below: Norwegian Star breaks loose from the dock

http://www.royalgazette.com/article/201 ... /709149913

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS RIDGE PATTERN BUILDS FROM THE
EAST. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AFOREMENTIONED TUTT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...
CONTINUE TO EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL DRIFTING NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET...
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST COASTAL AREAS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE USVI.

A DOWNWARD TREND IN ACTIVITY/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY...AS TUTT CONTINUES TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING
AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGES WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH/VCTS LIKELY ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ UNTIL 14/23Z. A
FEW AREAS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. AFTER 14/23Z CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...
LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
WITH SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A
RESULT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 20 30 20 20
STT 78 88 80 88 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

This week has been abnormally dry in northern Central America, especially taking into account that September is usually the wettest month of the year. However, a wetter pattern is expected this weekend:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
USA/NORTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THE TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG
87W/88W TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN. AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PATTERN
ESTABLISHES TO THE WEST...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
PULL EAST ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS BY 60-72 HRS.
EARLY IN THE CYCLE THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE YUCATAN...TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. OTHER ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN-CENTRAL
CUBA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IT WILL
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
THROUGH 36 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE...AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THIS WILL THEN RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

FARTHER SOUTH...A TUTT OVER GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN MEXICO SEPARATES
TWO RIDGES...WITH ONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE LATTER IS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
GUATEMALA/THE YUCATAN INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THIS...
IN-TURN...DISPLACES THE TUTT WEST TO THE CENTRAL STATES OF MEXICO
BY 42/48 HRS. BY 60-72 HRS THE TUTT IS TO THEN DISSIPATE/FILL.
MEANWHILE...AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MEXICO...IT IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ESTABLISHES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA/SOUTHERN
MEXICO THIS WILL ENHANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE/VENTILATION. AS
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE...MODELS TREND TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE/BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN THIS AREA. ACROSS EL
SALVADOR/HONDURAS-GUATEMALA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM THROUGH 54-60 HRS. THIS IS TO
THEN INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY.

A TUTT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEPARATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
FROM THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE. CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
FORECASTS... AS THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST...THE
TUTT IS FORECAST TO RETROGRESS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF VENEZUELA
TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA BY 42-48 HRS...WITH AXIS TO MEANDER WEST
INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA/HAITI BY 72 HRS. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
CARIBBEAN...A LOW LEVEL LONG FETCH SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS ENHANCING
MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ CONVERGENCE INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS. THE COLD CORE FEATURE ALOFT IS TO CONTINUE ENHANCING DEEP
LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN
ISLANDS DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE TUTT PULLS AWAY. MEANWHILE...ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. POSITIVE
INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
TROUGH/ITCZ IS VERY LIKELY. ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY... WHILE
OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 720 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SEVERAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR MUNICIPALITIES OVER THOSE SECTOR OF
THE ISLAND. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY WAS THE RESULT OF THE INSTABILITY CREATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEAR THE REGION IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL
TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE UPPER LOW WILL FADE COMPLETELY BY SATURDAY AND
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TALE CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER.
THEREFORE LESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...AVAILABLE MOISTURE...DIURNAL
HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECTS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA NEXT FEW
DAYS. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. A MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE LIMITED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH AFFECTED THE REGION
THE LAST TWO DAYS...HAS WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE
ONCE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL EFFECT TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON. FOR TOMORROW...A
SLOT OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS VISIBLE IN LATEST SAT ELITE IMAGES AS
WELL IN TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS...WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 50 WEST LONGITUDE EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND WILL APPROACH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO BRING
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PW VALUES WILL INCREASE UP TO 2.3
INCHES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 15/16Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST PR AFTER 15/17Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE VARIABLE AND LIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN
BECOMING MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS NEAR STORMS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 77 / 30 20 20 20
STT 87 78 89 79 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COULD BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1131 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
UNDER A SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE 15/12Z RAOB INDICATED THAT CONDITIONS
ARE STILL CONDUCIVE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
THEREFORE...THE SHORT TERM GRIDS WERE TWEAKED IN ORDER TO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...NORTH CENTRAL...AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS
THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND ROADWAYS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAS
BEN OBSERVED THE PAST TWO DAYS.


&&


.AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE USVI. THIS WILL CAUSE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TJMZ HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE USVI TERMINALS CAN
OBSERVE SHRA. VCTS IS POSSIBLE AT TJBQ...TJSJ...AND TJPS BUT LEFT
OUT OF TAF DUE TO UNCERTAINTY. WIND IS PREVAILING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
412 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WEST TONIGHT...AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAD ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER AFTERNOON TODAY...THANKS
TO THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...LOCAL
EFFECTS AND THE TUTT AXIS IN A GOOD LOCATION TO ACTIVELY VENTILATE
THE DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND END THIS EVENING...BUT THIS
MAY TAKE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS. AS TUTT CONTINUES MOVING
WEST TONIGHT...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO AN
"OVERALL" DRIER AND MORE STABLE PATTERN...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED ACTIVE WEATHER PROBABLY
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE...AS IT HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE USVI/BVI TERMINALS...
WHILE SHRA/TSRA ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TERMINALS IN PR MAY OBSERVE VCTS UNTIL
15/22Z...AND TJMZ MAY OBSERVE TSRA UNTIL THAT TIME. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER 16/00Z...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE LOCAL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6
FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
EAST NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE
WATERS TONIGHT...BUT SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 78 90 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 89 79 89 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

We have to watch the progress of invest 92L as it could bring plenty of rain to the islands and it has a chance to develop. Stay tuned to this thread and to the 92L thread for more information as it is available.

[cycloneye]

8 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.