Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Is Invest 92L)

[abajan]

Should at least bring some much welcomed cooling showers our way.

[floridasun78]

could this be invest?

[tolakram]

Convection falling apart.

Live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... 5&map=none

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:


DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Anthysteg00]

This area appears to be improving in organization nicely today...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 795 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TOO STRONG TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE COULD BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[NDG]

This might be a disturbance to watch as it tracks westward across the Caribbean, where the easterly shear might lessen up a bit.

[OURAGAN]

I don't see any strong Upper-level winds

[Anthysteg00]

Looks even better today! Starting to think NHC may go up to 20% if this area continues to improve...

[Dean4Storms]

Easterly shear still too much, like stated earlier the track across the entire Carib. Sea is likely to produce a period of time with lessened shear.

[northjaxpro]

This might be a disturbance to watch as it tracks westward across the Caribbean, where the easterly shear might lessen up a bit.

I think the shear has already begun to relax a little bit over the wave. Low Level convergence is slowly improving with this wave and it is looking more improved on satellite imagery. I would not be surprised if these trends continue that we will see an invest designated for this area in the next 12-24 hours.

Definitely a system to watch as it approaches the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of wave.


A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave just a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

[cycloneye]

Up to 20%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 880 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
DISORGANIZED...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, that is about what I expected at 20%. I think the trends are pointing currently to this being designated an invest soon, possibly as early as this evening.

[cycloneye]

Not bad looking wave.

[cycloneye]

Just in case,the squadron will be ready to investigate the wave on Monday afternoon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
FOR 17/1800Z IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.5N 64.0W.

[northjaxpro]

Well, NHC has tentatively scheduled Recon on standby for Monday. That is plausible due to the current trends of this wave and its proximity to the islands.

[colbroe]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 51W AND 55W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N
TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.

[Anthysteg00]

Vorticity has improved since last night. Invest classification may not be too far off IMO