EPAC: KRISTY - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012

KRISTY IS RESILIENT...AND DESPITE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEING
OVER COOL WATERS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT DETERIORATED YET. A
COMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER...AND
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AND INTENSITY OF 45
KNOTS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND
IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE ENTIRE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER MUCH
LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A
REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EARLIER.

MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF
THE CYCLONE TO KEEP KRISTY ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...KRISTY IS
EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND WILL BE STEERED BY A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOST LIKELY...THE REMANT LOW WILL BEGIN TO
MEANDER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN
INDICATED BY MOST MODELS AND BECOME STEERED BY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 20.6N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 21.1N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 22.3N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Boring little system.

[greenkat]

Boring little system.

Way to stay positive about it

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012

THE CLOUD TOPS OF KRISTY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN
A SMALL BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUPPORT 40 OR 45 KT...AND THE LOWER VALUE IS CHOSEN AS
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED BASED ON THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
PATTERN. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KRISTY MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A
REMNANT LOW IN 36H.

THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KRISTY HAS TURNED TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED
AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT
LOW...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EASTWARD
DRIFT WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 24H...BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 21.2N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 22.0N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 24.2N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 25.1N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/0000Z 26.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 19/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Should not last much longer.

[greenkat]

Should not last much longer.

Well, you kinda have to give her credit for hanging in there

Plus, she may not be a tropical system much longer, but that doesn't mean she couldn't get SoCal wet.

[Yellow Evan]

Should not last much longer.

Well, you kinda have to give her credit for hanging in there

Plus, she may not be a tropical system much longer, but that doesn't mean she couldn't get SoCal wet.

Yea, but it's not going towards SoCal, it is suppose to turn east towards BCP.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A
WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING
FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE
HARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL
OCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.

KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE
OF DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW
LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

How much longer do you think Kristy will last?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression in nest advisory?





Classification
T2.5/2.5

[greenkat]

How much longer do you think Kristy will last?

Probably only 12 or so hrs.

[Yellow Evan]

What does the ATCF say?

[Kingarabian]

Still a TS. Still has decent banding features and the convection is decently wrapped as well.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT VERY TIGHT CIRCULATION...AND THE
CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR A CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOL
WATERS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1756 UTC SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS...AND SINCE
THE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT. THE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
TOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A
WEAK SHALLOW LOW LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF THE
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 23.2N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 24.0N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Yellow Evan]

Holy crap, it intensified.

[Yellow Evan]

not the best looking storm ever.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track still hangs on to Tropical Storm status.

EP, 11, 2012091600, , BEST, 0, 235N, 1158W, 35, 1004, TS

[greenkat]

Holy crap, it intensified.

!!! Against all odds !!!
Is this peak intensity?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012

CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAS BEEN ON A GRADUAL DECLINE...WITH THE
CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME SUGGESTION RECENTLY ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY
AND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
LOWERED TO 35 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS AND
FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.
KRISTY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW AS IT
BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
IS NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 23.7N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 24.5N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 25.6N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/1200Z 26.4N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 18/0000Z 27.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[greenkat]

Reweakened with the 11pm advisory. Back to 40 kts.