ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[greenkat]

Nadine looks to be approximately same situation as Gordon... if a little weaker. Most likely not going to bring torrential, tropical rains associated with farther south storms to the Azores. Flooding could still be a minor problem, though, (especially if she stalls) due to Gordon having already saturated the islands. We will have to wait a little later to see.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track remains at 70kts.

She keeps boosting the North Atlantic ACE. (79.9775)

AL, 14, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 305N, 428W, 70, 983, HU

[chaser1]

Nadine looks to be approximately same situation as Gordon... if a little weaker. Most likely not going to bring torrential, tropical rains associated with farther south storms to the Azores. Flooding could still be a minor problem, though, (especially if she stalls) due to Gordon having already saturated the islands. We will have to wait a little later to see.

Even if transitioning to baroclinic, if practically "parked" over the Azores would'nt the flooding risk/potential from precip. be very high? I only know that there are supposedly some height with those mountains and it would seem as if such a set up would just "dump" big time. By the way (and off topic), isn't one of the islands the one that some Discovery Channel claims will "one day" fall into the ocean causing some radical Tidal Wave to eventually inundate the entire U.S. & Canadian coastline?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

Hanging on to 70kts.

AL, 14, 2012091618, , BEST, 0, 307N, 402W, 70, 983, HU

[greenkat]

Nadine looks to be approximately same situation as Gordon... if a little weaker. Most likely not going to bring torrential, tropical rains associated with farther south storms to the Azores. Flooding could still be a minor problem, though, (especially if she stalls) due to Gordon having already saturated the islands. We will have to wait a little later to see.

Even if transitioning to baroclinic, if practically "parked" over the Azores would'nt the flooding risk/potential from precip. be very high? I only know that there are supposedly some height with those mountains and it would seem as if such a set up would just "dump" big time. By the way (and off topic), isn't one of the islands the one that some Discovery Channel claims will "one day" fall into the ocean causing some radical Tidal Wave to eventually inundate the entire U.S. & Canadian coastline?

1. Well, since the Azores have great infrastructure, flooding will most likely not be a big problem, unless she stalls for 36+ hours. Which will most likely not happen.

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[cycloneye]

...NADINE WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 39.1W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[littlevince]

1. Well, since the Azores have great infrastructure, flooding will most likely not be a big problem, unless she stalls for 36+ hours. Which will most likely not happen.

The Azores islands handle reasonably well in typical situations like winter fronts, but not so well with convective lows as they are volcanic islands with unstable soils where landslides occur more easily. An additional problem is that in recent weeks the Azores have been affected by other non-tropical depressions and soils on some islands are already somewhat saturated.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track downgrades to Tropical Storm.

AL, 14, 2012091700, , BEST, 0, 311N, 384W, 60, 987, TS

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012

...NADINE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN AS IT WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 38.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Another NASA mission will fly on Wednesday.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CCA
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-121 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NA872 MISSION
TO NADINE TAKEOFF 19/1800Z

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM NADINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
600 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...THE PORTUGUESE WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF FLORES AND CORVO IN THE
NORTHWESTERN AZORES.

AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8 AM AST...1200
UTC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA

[Hurricane_Luis]

Latest, the Azores are at the top left.

[Hurricanehink]

Any idea why the advisory is so late?

[westwind]

Any idea why the advisory is so late?

I was wondering the same thing. Maybe they are still trying to work the track out. They mentioned that the steering pattern is very complicated. Still I would have thought they would have issued it by now.

[Hurricanehink]

Any idea why the advisory is so late?

I was wondering the same thing. Maybe they are still trying to work the track out. They mentioned that the steering pattern is very complicated. Still I would have thought they would have issued it by now.

Ah, I just got my answer via Facebook.

An internet outage is preventing the 5 pm advisory on Tropical Storm Nadine from being posted to the NHC website. The advisory is available on external third-party websites

That's from their page located here - http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov

[westwind]

Any idea why the advisory is so late?

I was wondering the same thing. Maybe they are still trying to work the track out. They mentioned that the steering pattern is very complicated. Still I would have thought they would have issued it by now.

Ah, I just got my answer via Facebook.

An internet outage is preventing the 5 pm advisory on Tropical Storm Nadine from being posted to the NHC website. The advisory is available on external third-party websites

That's from their page located here - http://www.facebook.com/US.NOAA.NationalHurricaneCenter.gov

Well it appears to be sorted because it is now up on their site.

[brunota2003]

Nadine looks to be approximately same situation as Gordon... if a little weaker. Most likely not going to bring torrential, tropical rains associated with farther south storms to the Azores. Flooding could still be a minor problem, though, (especially if she stalls) due to Gordon having already saturated the islands. We will have to wait a little later to see.

Even if transitioning to baroclinic, if practically "parked" over the Azores would'nt the flooding risk/potential from precip. be very high? I only know that there are supposedly some height with those mountains and it would seem as if such a set up would just "dump" big time. By the way (and off topic), isn't one of the islands the one that some Discovery Channel claims will "one day" fall into the ocean causing some radical Tidal Wave to eventually inundate the entire U.S. & Canadian coastline?

I think you are thinking about one of the Cape Verde islands.

[vegastar]

The island that could be responsible for the Mega Tsunami is La Palma in the Canary Islands:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megatsunami#Potential_future_megatsunami

[CrazyC83]

Is there any Recon data available off the Global Hawk in real time?

[littlevince]

Interesting, earlier estimates pointed to 990mb

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED BY THE
NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT WAS 981 MB...28.97 INCHES.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1139.shtml

It would be nice if in the future we get more of this kind of flights.