Will We Have Another Named System?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Talk about conditions and what is happening in the Atlantic to say when the season will end in your opinion. Back up your statements with facts. If you're feeling spicy add a bibliography.

[Frank2]

Well, considering the Gulf is already showing an El Nino pattern (lows forming in Texas and moving NE through the Gulf), it seems the season is 90% over as far as anything west of 60W...

We might see another one or two named systems east of 60W, but I'll guess and say that's about it - the southwesterlies are currently VERY strong over the Gulf, Western Atlantic and Caribbean and show no decrease in the near future, and with each passing week that will become the constant pattern until El Nino subsides...

[Frank2]

I just looked at the entire basin and my answer is probably not, but never say never...

My guess is that we might have one or two more named systems, but the current photo shows absolutely NOTHING in any area, except for departing Nadine...

One thing to note - many professional meteorologists had various errors this year when it came to long-term forecasts and my thinking is that they really need to discontinue the long-term forecast since it's shown to be almost useless...

No one predicted the disasterous 2005 season - and then incorrectly decided that there would be the same high level of activity for 2006. This year began with predictions of a below normal season - then were quickly corrected to an above-normal season after a busy June, but later were reversed to a below-normal rest of the season, so all of this means that they really cannot accurately make a prediction greater than when a system is actually on the map, and even then intensity forecasting is still a serious issue, as shown during Isaac...

The good news is that meteorology will always be an inexact science, and that's probably what makes weather forecasting fun, at least to me...

[vbhoutex]

I just looked at the entire basin and my answer is probably not, but never say never...

My guess is that we might have one or two more named systems, but the current photo shows absolutely NOTHING in any area, except for departing Nadine...

One thing to note - many professional meteorologists had various errors this year when it came to long-term forecasts and my thinking is that they really need to discontinue the long-term forecast since it's shown to be almost useless...

No one predicted the disasterous 2005 season - and then incorrectly decided that there would be the same high level of activity for 2006. This year began with predictions of a below normal season - then were quickly corrected to an above-normal season after a busy June, but later were reversed to a below-normal rest of the season, so all of this means that they really cannot accurately make a prediction greater than when a system is actually on the map, and even then intensity forecasting is still a serious issue, as shown during Isaac...

The good news is that meteorology will always be an inexact science, and that's probably what makes weather forecasting fun, at least to me...

Even though, imo, long term forecasting is at best a crap shoot, I see no reason for it to be discontinued. Normally the more someone practices something the better they become at it. I think that would apply here also, especially as technology continues to unfold and our "reach" broadens. JMHO
More named systems? Yes, at least two. The patterns are still there to produce more tropical systems, but the big problem this year, unstable lower levels(for lack of better nomenclature), is still around as evidenced by the last few systems still struggling to get together. This appears, from my amateur viewpoint, to be a basin wide problem. Will those named systems be major? I don't think so based on the above.

[amawea]

I just looked at the entire basin and my answer is probably not, but never say never...

My guess is that we might have one or two more named systems, but the current photo shows absolutely NOTHING in any area, except for departing Nadine...

One thing to note - many professional meteorologists had various errors this year when it came to long-term forecasts and my thinking is that they really need to discontinue the long-term forecast since it's shown to be almost useless...

No one predicted the disasterous 2005 season - and then incorrectly decided that there would be the same high level of activity for 2006. This year began with predictions of a below normal season - then were quickly corrected to an above-normal season after a busy June, but later were reversed to a below-normal rest of the season, so all of this means that they really cannot accurately make a prediction greater than when a system is actually on the map, and even then intensity forecasting is still a serious issue, as shown during Isaac...

The good news is that meteorology will always be an inexact science, and that's probably what makes weather forecasting fun, at least to me...

+1000 Frank2! Very good view of long range forecasting imho.