2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

Here are three images from the Statue of Liberty cam when it started to go downhill there.

[Cyclenall]

I'm hearing that nothing much happened near New York City, not even severe . Just really black skies and heavy rains with small gusts of wind. More lightning was occurring behind the line (that happens). Its hilarious that I ended up getting a better thunderstorm than NYC and I was barely in Slight Risk while New England was teetering on High Risk levels with bowing squall lines!

I looked at one of those cams and saw some lightning on them (no bolts), how entertaining .

[cycloneye]

The Moderate Risk status was lowered to Slight Risk for 7/27/12 on latest outlook

Code: Select all

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0756 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2012
   
   VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   THROUGH A PORTION OF THE TN AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...
   
   EXPANSIVE LINE OF STORMS ALONG WITH A FEW DISCRETE CELLS PERSIST
   FROM THE MID ATLANTIC...WV...KY INTO AR AND ERN OK. STORMS MOVING
   THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER DEEP LAYER
   WINDS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR ACTIVITY TO SHIFT SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW
   ALOFT WITH SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. WARM
   SECTOR REMAINS MOIST AND MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AND SEWD
   PROPAGATION ALONG EXTENSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE NEXT FEW
   HOURS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH 03Z. HOWEVER...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BECOME
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   BEGINS TO STABILIZE AND CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INCREASES.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/27/2012


[brunota2003]

Quite a few wind reports of measured gusts in the 50s from the NYC/Harbor areas. Places SW of NYC had measured gusts in the 60s.

[cycloneye]

This 2012 season has turned below normal after a very quick start with climax on the March 1-2 big event.

[Nicko999]

Insane thunderstorms in Southern Quebec yesterday... L'Assomption, Quebec recorded 83.8mm (3.3 inches).

[cycloneye]

A photo of what appears is a waterspout near Coney Island in Brooklyn.

[cycloneye]

Video of tornado near NYC in Queens.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... w8gWj2Ue3I

[Stephanie]

This is crazy for the East Coast! Three tornadoes/waterspouts reported this week up the I-95 corridor, Delaware, New Jersey and now NYC. Wow!

[angelwing]

This is crazy for the East Coast! Three tornadoes/waterspouts reported this week up the I-95 corridor, Delaware, New Jersey and now NYC. Wow!

Makes me wonder when SE PA will get hit

[Stephanie]

The front has come, dumped a lot of rain and it's in the 60's right now!

[Nicko999]

In Southern Quebec yesterday...

-An F0 tornado touched down in Drummondville
-97 km/h (60 mph) wind gusts reported in Drummondville
-97 mm (3.82 inches) of rain in High Falls (north of Gatineau)

The Drummondville tornado is the latest confirmed in Canada since 2005.

[Nicko999]

EC has confirmed another tornado (F2) in Eastern Ontario from the crazy severe weather outbreak on Saturday.

At around 10 AM on Saturday, September 8, a damaging storm moved
through an area near storms corners in Eastern Ontario. Storms
corners is approximately 10 kilometres to the east of Napanee. An
Environment Canada employee performed an on-site investigation
earlier today, viewing damage and talking to eyewitnesses. Upon
completion of the investigation the event was deemed to be a low end
Fujita scale 2 tornado with peak winds between 180 and 210 kilometres
per hour.[/QUOTE]

http://weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/SWS ... ml?prov=on

We had 2 tornadoes on our side of the border as well.

[Ntxw]

Some latest US tornado tallies from the SPC. Jan-Jun official count is in and it stands at 724. Crazy stat is that the total is less than all of April in 2011 It's quite possible we might end up below one thousand count for the year but there are still several more months yet to go. Death's are still a bit higher than more active years so still a lot of work to do in prevention.

[Nicko999]

The storm yesterday...

Here is the video...the night show starts at the 30:00 mark.
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF81s7knJgU[/youtube]

[cycloneye]

SPC outlook for Tuesday in East Coast.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2012

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SERN
STATES THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...

SYNOPTIC UPPER PATTERN IS IN THE PROCESS OF AMPLIFICATION...AND THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. A NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH
FROM SCNTRL CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
EJECT NEWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND SERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT. AS
NRN BRANCH TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THE SRN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER TX /AS
WELL AS THE LEAD IMPULSE OVER LA/ WILL SHEAR NEWD AND DEAMPLIFY
WHILE ACCELERATING INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
LIFT NWD INTO QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE
ERN STATES...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC...REACHING SRN
NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY EVENING.


...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES...

IN WAKE OF NWD ADVANCING WARM FRONT...RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH WARM SECTOR ALONG
STRENGTHENING 50+ KT LLJ. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND
WITHIN PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN WRN
PORTION OF WARM SECTOR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT OF
MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND FROM THE WRN CAROLINAS INTO WRN VA.
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY SERVING AS A LIMITING FACTOR. THE
MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED EVOLVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ALONG STRENGTHENING
LLJ AND WHERE A FEW CLOUD BREAKS WILL PROMOTE AT LEAST MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP EWD THROUGH THE
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. MIXED CONVECTIVE MODES ARE LIKELY
INCLUDING LINES WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/BOWING SEGMENTS. A FEW
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO OCCUR IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING OCCURS. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THIS REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE MODERATE RISK IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR THAT MORE INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

...SERN STATES...

OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WHERE DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER
THAN FARTHER NE AS THE LLJ LIFTS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA.
DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CLOUD BREAKS AND DIABATIC WARMING...SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AND POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..DIAL.. 09/17/2012

[cycloneye]

Dr. Greg Forbes has updated his torcon index for today.

CT - 4
DC – 5
DE – 5
FL northeast – 2
GA southeast – 2
MA - 4
MD central, east – 5
NC central, east - 5
NJ - 5
NY southeast – 5
PA east – 5
RI - 4
SC central, east - 4
VA central, east – 5
VT south - 3
Other areas – 1 or less

[angelwing]

Dr. Greg Forbes has updated his torcon index for today.

CT - 4
DC – 5
DE – 5
FL northeast – 2
GA southeast – 2
MA - 4
MD central, east – 5
NC central, east - 5
NJ - 5
NY southeast – 5
PA east – 5
RI - 4
SC central, east - 4
VA central, east – 5
VT south - 3
Other areas – 1 or less

PA east – 5

[cycloneye]

angelwing, you are in the Moderate Risk area so be careful there.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
INTO THE NERN STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN VA THROUGH ERN
MD...DEL AND NJ...

...MID ATLANTIC INTO THE NERN STATES...

FORCED PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE AND A FEW DISCRETE STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN STATES. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR SO
FAR HAS BEEN THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE NERN U.S. WHERE
SFC LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER AND RAIN HAS BEEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. VERY LARGE HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP SHEAR WILL PERSIST
OVER THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING AS STRENGTHENING 60+ KT LLJ LIFTS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NEWD EJECTING NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DESPITE THE LIMITING EFFECTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL MAINTAIN A
SMALL MDT RISK UNTIL THE 01Z UPDATE FROM ERN VA INTO ERN MD...DEL
AND NJ WHERE WIND DAMAGE COULD BE MORE CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF THE
MORE ORGANIZED AND MORE INTENSE PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT
STILL CONTAINS BOWING AND LEWP STRUCTURES.

..DIAL.. 09/18/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MORE CHARACTERISTIC OF AUTUMN
THAN LATE SUMMER WILL SWING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT SURGES
EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO CNTRL NY/PA AND WRN VA BY LATE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN CONTINUES INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY...A COMPACT BUT POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF COAST REGION AND ACCOMPANIED BY A 50-60KT
MID LEVEL JET WILL RACE NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM AL/GA TO THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE ERN FLANK
OF THE LARGER DYNAMIC TROUGH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTHWARD.

...SOUTHEAST TO DELMARVA...
FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION IS COMPLICATED BY THE LEADING IMPULSE
OVER SRN AREAS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
NONETHELESS...STRONG AND EXTENSIVE FLOW FIELDS CHARACTERIZED BY
50-60 MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW ATOP LOW LEVEL SLY TO SSWLY FLOW AT
30-60KT WERE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO MORE THAN ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR FOR LINEAR AND PERSISTENT STORM STRUCTURES AND STORM MOTIONS
OF 40-50KT. BROAD REGION OF EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES OF 300-700 M2/S2
ALSO EXISTS COINCIDENT WITH THE ANTECEDENT WARM/MOIST SECTOR WHERE
LIFT WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL CONFLUENCE BANDS AHEAD OF THE
LEADING IMPULSE EJECTING FROM AL/GA. ONGOING CONVECTION FROM SC/NC
ACROSS SERN VA SHOULD SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VIGOR AS WEAK
INSTABILITY RISES SLOWLY AND DYNAMIC FORCING STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FROM FAST-MOVING
LINEAR SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION...CELLS NEAR LINE BREAKS...AND ANY
DISCRETE STORMS...WILL EXIST IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG
LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.

...DELMARVA TO ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND....
LOW-CAPE/HIGH-SHEAR AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
AND ADVANCING FRONT WILL DRIVE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THESE
AREAS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC NORTH TO NEW ENGLAND...POTENTIALLY
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE AND INTENSE WARM
ADVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS WERE CONTRIBUTING TO EXTENSIVE MOSTLY
STRATIFORM RAIN AREA FROM NRN VA ACROSS NY/VT ATTM. THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION FOR THE TIME
BEING DESPITE HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR/HELICITY. DESPITE THE LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY...KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WAS
ALREADY SUPPORTING EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED LINEAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES
FROM NRN VA AND MD NWD TO SRN TIER OF NY. MAGNITUDE OF DEEP-LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON COULD SUPPORT THE EVOLUTION OF A CORRIDOR WHERE MOIST
ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS...IN THE PRESENCE OF INTENSE
FLOW/SHEAR...RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAST-MOVING NARROW COLD
FRONTAL RAIN BAND/QLCS. STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS FLUX
INTO AND AHEAD OF THIS BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR DAMAGING WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH RAPID STORM
MOTIONS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE. A COUPLE
OF BRIEF...BUT POTENTIALLY DAMAGING...TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THE MDT RISK AREA DEPICTS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR THE ABOVE
SCENARIO TO UNFOLD BETWEEN 19Z-00Z/2PM-8PM EDT.

[angelwing]

Thank you Luis, been listening to the weather radio too..had about 3 inches of rain at home so far and tons of wind