2012 U.S Severe Weather (Videos-Photos-Stats-Forecasts)

[cycloneye]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC027-037-041-PAC089-095-182215-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0228.120918T2113Z-120918T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
513 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
EAST CENTRAL MONROE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SUSSEX COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NEWTON...
WARREN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM FLATBROOKVILLE TO ROXBURG...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 12
MILES WEST OF NEWTON TO 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF EASTON...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
PLEASANT VALLEY...HOPE...OXFORD AND BRASS CASTLE AROUND 520 PM
EDT...
CRANDON LAKES...WASHINGTON AND FIVE POINTS AROUND 525 PM EDT...
GREAT MEADOWS AND GREAT MEADOWS-VIENNA AROUND 530 PM EDT...
BRANCHVILLE AROUND 535 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN LITTLE OR NO LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT
TO HEAR THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 7437 4109 7450 4104 7450 4105 7445
4102 7443 4100 7430 4094 7428 4075 7484
4079 7489 4071 7497 4065 7516 4115 7513
4115 7508 4109 7502 4116 7491 4132 7480
4136 7471
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 263DEG 28KT 4109 7496 4076 7508

$$

GORSE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NJC007-015-PAC045-101-182230-
/O.NEW.KPHI.SV.W.0227.120918T2112Z-120918T2230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER CITY...CAMDEN...
GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 630 PM EDT

* AT 510 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
CHESTER AROUND 525 PM EDT...
FOLCROFT...SWEDESBORO AND BECKETT AROUND 530 PM EDT...
SOUTH PHILADELPHIA...PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...PAULSBORO
AND GIBBSTOWN AROUND 535 PM EDT...
WEST DEPTFORD AND BEN FRANKLIN BRIDGE AROUND 540 PM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED... ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...PREFERABLY
INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL OR STRONG WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 7515 3967 7520 3966 7524 3972 7538
3978 7540 3978 7543 3979 7541 3982 7544
3984 7560 3992 7526 4002 7503 3999 7506
3998 7501 3995 7502 3994 7498 3989 7493
3979 7491 3979 7481 3973 7474
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 246DEG 40KT 3983 7555 3950 7562

$$

IOVINO

[Jason Foster]

Not too much out of yesterday, but I did get a little bit of flooding video around the Frederick, Maryland area. Quite a bit of rushing water in this one:

Blog and video - https://stormitecture.wordpress.com/201 ... r-18-2012/

[cycloneye]

Very interesting to see the much downward activity overall in 2012 despite a fast start to the season.

[Nicko999]

Seems like we're not done with severe weather for the year.

Damage has been reported in Mont-Laurier following a weather event at
02:30 PM today, October 31 : road signs at the junction of routes 309
and 117 were blown off or blown over, an old barn was demolished
farther north and a trampoline was tossed by the wind, damaging the
roof of a house.

Based on photographs and especially a video of a funnel cloud that we
have received, all signs point to a weak tornado that was not
associated with a thunderstorm. However, our experts will analyse the
data gathered and report their findings tomorrow, November 1, 2012.


Please note that this summary contains the observations available at
broadcast time but does not constitute an official or final report of
weather events.

[Nicko999]

Yes, it was a tornado. Even though it was weak, that is probably one of the latest tornadoes in Canada.


Weak tornado strikes Mont-Laurier, Quebec

Videos and photos show a funnel cloud touching down in Mont-Laurier Wednesday afternoon around 2:30 p.m.

Some minor damage was reported and firefighters were dispatched to the scene. Road signs at the junction of routes 309 and 117 were blown off or blown over, an old barn was demolished farther north, and a trampoline was tossed by the wind, damaging the roof of a house.[/QUOTE]

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=Possible_tornado_strikes_Mont-laurier__QC_31_10_2012?ref=wxeyetopstoriesmac

[Ntxw]

It's been night and day when regarding tornado count last year to this year.



We are now near the minimum record year to date. Barring another outbreak, we could set a new record low.

Still want to emphasize this is only in terms of numbers. There were still deaths involved which is something we should continue to strive at lowering to 0. A low active season does not mean one couldn't effect any one of us.

In comparison Canada has experienced an unusually high amount of Tornado activity.

[cycloneye]

Those who live in the Gulf states have to watch for possible severe weather for the 16th.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT DEC 15 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST
STATES...

...SOUTHEAST TX/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TO TN VALLEY...
BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONUS ON SUNDAY. SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL CROSS
THE REGION /AND ADJACENT MIDWEST/ DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
PLAINS/OZARKS SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH PERSISTENT WARM
ADVECTION AND A STEADY MOISTURE INFLUX AHEAD OF A FRONT. RELATIVELY
WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND A LIMITED NORTHWARD MOISTURE
RETURN...ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER/POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION...SHOULD
LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
SO...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...WITH AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/PERHAPS
TORNADO POTENTIAL.

THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO FOR STORM INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TX INTO LA/PARTS OF MS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY NEAR AN ADVANCING/ACCELERATING COLD
FRONT. SOMEWHAT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THESE AREAS IN
THE PRESENCE OF A HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS...WITH THE REGION
INCREASINGLY COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/OZARKS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WHERE STORMS DO
INCREASE/MATURE...VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50-80 KT /0-6 KM/ WILL SUPPORT
FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/SOME SUPERCELLS WITH ASSOCIATED POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..GUYER.. 12/15/201

[cycloneye]

The slight risk threat moves to the SE and Ohio Valley states on Monday.



DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS AND OH/TN VALLEYS...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE CONUS
ON MONDAY...WITH A QUASI-FOCUS ON THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE OZARKS TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
APPALACHIANS AMID BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW ACCENTUATED BY A 125+ KT
POLAR JET. A CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW SHOULD DEEPEN /ESPECIALLY THE
LAST HALF OF THE PERIOD/ AS IT DEVELOPS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY TO THE PA VICINITY/NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE THE
PRIMARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES/CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS...
ALONG AND MORE SO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...CLUSTERS/BANDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING WITHIN A
CORRIDOR FROM AL/NORTHERN GA NORTHEASTWARD INTO OTHER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS VICINITY. ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREVIOUSLY
DISCUSSED NORTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/POLAR JET...A
PERSISTENT WARM CONVEYOR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTENSION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO AREAS EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS INCLUDING ADDITIONAL PARTS OF GA/CAROLINAS AND VA.

AS THIS OCCURS...LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY PREVALENT DURING THE DAY FROM GA INTO PIEDMONT/COASTAL
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. WHILE CLOUD COVER/EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION
AND WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL HINDER THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION...MLCAPE MAY REACH TO AROUND 500 J/KG WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH MATURE STORMS /ESPECIALLY
DIURNALLY/ EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY STRONG DEEPER LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FIELD /50+ KT 0-6 KM SHEAR/...FAST MOVING CLUSTERS/FEW
SUPERCELLS MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION.

OF NOTE...A SECONDARY ROUND OF TSTMS /POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE/ MAY
DEVELOP ON WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

...OH/TN VALLEYS...
IN THE WAKE OF EARLY DAY SHOWERS/TSTMS...IT APPEARS THAT A SECONDARY
ROUND OF LOW-TOPPED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS MOST CERTAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KY/TN...BUT SUCH LOW-TOPPED DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR AS FAR SOUTH AS
PORTIONS OF AL. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPE WILL BE
MODEST...SUFFICIENT HEATING/STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND FOCUSED
ASCENT NEAR THE BRUNT OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE SUCH
DEVELOPMENT. THESE LOW-TOPPED STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/GUSTY
WINDS...AND THE SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO THE REGION.

..GUYER.. 12/16/2012

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Preliminary stats of the 2012 season. They will have the final stats in the next few weeks.

Code: Select all

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH SAT JAN 05 2012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0415 AM CST SUN JAN 06 2013

       ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES...    NUMBER OF       KILLER
                                    TORNADO DEATHS  TORNADOES
    ..2013.. 2012 2011 2010 3YR               3YR             3YR
    PREL ACT  ACT  ACT  ACT  AV 13  12  11 10  AV  13 12 11 10 AV
JAN   0    -  79   16   30   42  0   2   0  0   1   0  2  0  0  1
FEB   -    -  57   63    1   40  -  15   1  0   5   -  7  1  0  3
MAR   -    - 154   75   33   87  -  41   1  1  14   - 10  1  1  4
APR   -    - 206  758  139  368  -   6 363 11 127   -  1 43  2 15
MAY   -    - 121  326  304  250  -   0 178  7  62   -  0  9  4  4
JUN   -    - 110  160  324  198  -   4   3 12   6   -  2  1  6  3
JUL   -    -  37  103  146   95  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  1  0
AUG   -    -  38   57   55   50  -   0   2  1   1   -  0  2  1  1
SEP   -    -  39   51   57   49  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  2  1
OCT   -    -  37   23  108   56  -   0   0  0   0   -  0  0  0  0
NOV   -    -   7*  44   53   35  -   0   5  0   2   -  0  2  0  1
DEC   -    -  51*  15   32   33  -   0   0  9   3   -  0  0  4  1
---  --   -- ---  ---- ---- ---- -  -- --- -- ---   - -- -- -- --
SUM   0    - 936* 1691 1282 1303 0  68 553 45 223   0 22 59 21 34

* PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF ACTUAL TORNADOES. FINAL VALUES WILL
BE ENTERED WHEN STORM DATA IS PUBLISHED LATER IN 2013.

COMPARISONS BETWEEN 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNTS AND ACTUAL COUNTS FROM
PRIOR YEARS SHOULD BE AVOIDED.

PREL = 2013 PRELIMINARY COUNT FROM ALL NWS LOCAL STORM REPORTS.
ACT  = ACTUAL TORNADO COUNT BASED ON NWS STORM DATA SUBMISSIONS.

..CARBIN..01/06/2013