Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
929 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO
DIMINISHED LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND ONLY PASSING SHOWERS FROM THE
EAST REMAINED OVER THE AREA. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. EVEN THOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AFFECTING THE AREA
WATERS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO.

SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SINCE LATEST GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL HOLDS IN TERMS OF THE
LONG RANGE FORECAST AS THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE
GUIDANCE IN THE LARGER SCALE AND IN THE LONG TERM.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
524 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE AN APPROACHING
TUTT AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE VERY SLOWLY WEST TOWARD
AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
PROBABLY SUNDAY ALSO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...
EXPECT THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND TROPICAL WAVE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION...TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THEN...FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MOISTURE APPEARS A BIT
DEEPER OVERALL BUT FA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED APPROACHING TUTT. SO...AGAIN EXPECT A
SIMILAR PATTERN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD
OFFER LIMITED OVERALL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS...AS DYNAMICS
IMPROVE DUE TO LOCATION OF TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL
REFLECTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT SATURDAY SHOULD BE
THE DRIEST OF THE WEEKEND DAYS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE...WITH
SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY...AS TUTT AXIS AND MOIST
SURGE MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE TIME OF MAX HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/TSRA IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AS A RESULT...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY ACROSS TIST AND TJSJ IN PASSING SHRA/TSRA THRU AT LEAST
19/16Z. AFT 19/16Z...SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST PR...CREATING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND POSSIBLY
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS NEAR TJMZ AND TJPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGIONAL WATERS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 89 79 / 40 30 50 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 40 40 50

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
228 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO REMAINED MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST SATELITE IMAGES AS WELL AS
TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS INDICATED A SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF MOISTURE...WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA THURSDAY...WHICH WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER HE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO. SJU-GFS 3KM AGL WIND
STREAMLINES SHOW WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA
CENTRAL...WITH STREAMERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EL YUNQUE RAIN
FOREST AND CONTINUING NORTHWEST TO SAN JUAN METRO AREA. ANOTHER
AREA AFFECTED WILL BE THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL
CONTRIBUTE FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AS THE TROUGH MOVES IN A
MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALSO...MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE SOME MORE...AS A
TROPICAL WAVE/INDUCE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE REGION. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BETWEEN DAY 5 THROUGH 8...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL COOL DOWN A
LITTLE BIT...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS TJMZ AND TISX UNTIL AT LEAST 19/22Z.
AFTER THAT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. HOWEVER...AFT 20/17Z BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL THROUGH ABOUT 20/22Z. ALSO...MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER TKPK AND TNCM. EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 10
TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 25KFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 90 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 90 79 89 / 20 20 50 50

[Macrocane]

Hi! Latest HPC Discussion

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

THE POLAR TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRESS
AGAINST A WANING CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS WILL ENHANCE VENTILATION ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER GUATEMALA TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR...EXPECTING INITIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO INCREASE IN
ASSOCIATION OF AN ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE...REACHING 15-20MM/DAY
WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS GUATEMALA. AN INCREASE IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE
COASTS OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS REACHING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY.

OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A CELL OF THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT MESO/SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURE. AS AFOREMENTIONED POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE
USA/GULF OF MEXICO...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT
NORTH AND RAPIDLY MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN TO THE
NORTH. AS IT YIELDS AWAY...THIS ALLOWS A TUTT OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC TO RETROGRESS TOWARDS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS IT
RETROGRESSES...CONVERGENCE TO THE WEST OF THIS AXIS WILL ESTABLISH
A MID/UPPER LEVEL CAP...THAT IS TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE TUTT LOW MOVES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY 48-60 HRS...TO MEANDER WESTWARD OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AFTERWARDS. THIS IS TO REFLECT AT LOW LEVELS AS
AN INDUCED/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLES ON FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. AS THE WAVE
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND LIKELY FAVOR AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. YET...EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION TO DOMINATE
THE SCENE WITH MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY STRONGEST/MOST PERSISTENT CELLS.

A WANING TUTT LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEPARATES THE
SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE FROM THE CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE TUTT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA/CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA...BUT IS FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 24-36 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH THE CYCLE...WHILE STRONGEST ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
PROGRESSES WESTWARD. OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED
ACROSS JAMAICA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS THE TROUGH ALOFT
ENHANCES DIURNAL CONVECTION/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE...AND TROPICAL
WAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS PEAKING AT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY THROUGH
36 HRS OVER JAMAICA...DECREASING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS. ACROSS CUBA
EXPECTING HEAVIEST ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS DECREASING
SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC

TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 48W IS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE DEEP
CONVECTION. THE WAVE WILL NEAR THE GUIANAS BY 24-30 HRS...WHERE IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY. THE WAVE WILL THEN AFFECT NORTHERN SURINAME/GUYANA TO
NORTHEAST VENEZUELA LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WHILE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
PREVAILS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W AND SOUTH OF 19N SUSTAINS SCATTERED
SHALLOW CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLES TO PUERTO RICO...THE WAVE WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND HAITI IT WILL PRODUCE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ACROSS
JAMAICA...THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 73W AND SOUTH OF 17N WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF HISPANIOLA TODAY LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS
JAMAICA EXPECTING SIMILAR ACCUMULATIONS...WHILE OVER THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS TO CUBA IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH IS TO AFFECT
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH ACCUMULATION
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS PANAMA TO COSTA RICA
IT WILL THEN SUSTAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.

[HurricaneFan]

Is the Tropical Wave talked about in the forecast between 50W and 55W now?

[cycloneye]

Is the Tropical Wave talked about in the forecast between 50W and 55W now?

Here is the 2 PM discussion by NHC of the wave.Is back in longitude around 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W TO THE SOUTH
OF 19N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N45W 15N50W 10N54W.

[cycloneye]

HurricaneFan, this is the 8 PM discussion of wave.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 19N46W TO
9N52W MOVING NW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ISOLATED
SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60
NM SE AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
RIDGE TO THE E.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1041 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED A GOOD PORTION OF
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS WERE OVER MARICAO AND SAN GERMAN. THE USVI ALSO
RECEIVED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN SAINT CROIX.

FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
THE ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.

TOMORROW...ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
NOT AS MUCH AS IT WAS TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE GOOD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BECAUSE IT
HAS BEEN RAINING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...THE RIVERS ARE NOW STARTING TO REACT WITH SIGNIFICANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY...THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS SOME RIVER RISES WITH THE
EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE IS WEAKENING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN AN UPPER LOW MOVES
IN FROM THE EAST AND STAYS OVER THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY...THIS IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DECENT MOISTURE MOVING
IN STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND STAYING FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SHOULD GIVE US SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. It appears that a fairly rainy period is instored for the islands on the NE Caribbean as waves and troughs move thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN
CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE AN
APPROACHING TUTT AND ITS LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS MOVE VERY SLOWLY
WEST TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE POSSIBLY LINGERING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EXPECT INCREASING MOISTURE TODAY AND LINGERING
MOISTURE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN ADDITION...A
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY AND CONTINUING FOR
FRIDAY...SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW NORTH COASTAL TEMPERATURES TO BE
VERY WARM TO HOT...DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SUNSHINE AT TIMES.
SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT FAIRLY DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
DURING THE DAY AND LINGERS THROUGH MOIST OF SUNDAY...YIELDING
SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THOSE EXPECTED FOR TODAY AND
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO REMAIN MARGINAL SATURDAY
BUT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SUNDAY...SO EXPECT A BIT MORE ACTIVITY THEN. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY...TUTT
FINALLY MOVES TO A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION TO AID IN CONVECTION
LOCALLY BUT MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. THUS...EXPECT
EARLY NEXT WEEK TO FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE LOCAL
WATERS EARLY TODAY. SOME SHRA MAY ALSO BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SW PR BTWN 20/17Z AND
20/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND
TJPS...WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR. WINDS FM SFC TO 25KFT
WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E-NE BTWN 10 AND 15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 16 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
5 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WATERS
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 79 / 30 40 40 20
STT 89 79 89 80 / 40 50 50 20

[Gustywind]

Hi Cycloneye . Here is a recap concerning the twave who crossed our island during the past few days...

WEATHER

Heavy rains and hundreds of lightning

V. D. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 18.09.2012

http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 186856.php

The tropical wave that eventually cross the Caribbean arc generated heavy rains and a large electrical activity that caused a blackout yesterday morning. An improvement should emerge in the afternoon and in the evening.

Passage of a wave and very low wind. An explosive cocktail. This is what happened yesterday morning, as the forecaster to weather France Regis Marec. "Stormy zone resume arriving on land."

The stormy episode involving the archipelago yesterday morning first contacted the Basse-Terre, who, between 9 and 10 hours has been a strong electrical activity and significant precipitation. Then, the system moved on Grande-Terre, 10 to 11 hours.

In the space of an hour, he fell between 30 and 40 mm across. "What is still much" specific Regis Marec. Among the sprayed areas: Jarry, the great fund behind Sainte-Anne, the Northern Grande-Terre on Port-Louis, North of the mold...


ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND

In addition to the precipitation, the system generated a large electrical activity. There also a little everywhere. "Of the Holy, passing by the side sous-le - wind to Anse-Bertrand..." "Weather France radar identified hundreds of lightning or electrical arcs. "Which did not all necessarily hit the ground."

Understand the difficulties encountered EDF Islands Guadeloupe, which about 10 a.m., after several simultaneous lightning impacts, in particular on the network high voltage of the Basse-Terre, faced a blackout (read here). According the forecasts of weather France, observed yesterday afternoon lull would not last. Regis Marec expected new rainfall and the resumption of the electrical activity in second part of night. "This should remain very active until midday." Where the maintenance of yellow due to "heavy rain and thunderstorms.

An improvement should then draw in the afternoon and in the evening. However, the risk of thundery grain should persist tomorrow. "Large packets of thunderstorms shift West in Caribbean, but they remain quite close to us."

The return of a more dry air with a slight haze is expected Thursday and Friday, but the approach of the No. 33 wave left fear the return of bad weather for the weekend. However, this wave appear less active than that which comes from concern us.

-Two colleges evacuated

Two colleges, the pointoise region - Lauricisque sea front and sporting excellence at the international - were evacuated yesterday morning due to bad weather conditions. "For the safety of the students, teachers and administrative staff", stated the President Stephan Martens.

-Blackout

About 10 a.m. yesterday, all the Islands is deprived of power. Explanations of Max Bordeaux, responsible for communication at EDF Guadeloupe archipelago: "There has been lot of impacts of lightning strikes on Guadeloupe and on lines." At one point, when there are too, protections are triggered. "The two lines of evacuation of energy of the thermal power plant of mold (CTM) were powered down first. "As missing 80 megawatts coming from the CTM, the rest of the network that can withstand this appeal for support, systems have worked and have protected the network."

And here it is the blackout. Quickly, EDF teams were mobilized to replenish some 220 000 clients. Priority region pointoise and Basse-Terre, where hospitals.

"Dispatching personnel is trained for, it has implemented the procedure." At 11 a.m., 15% of the network was restored, at 11 h 30, 75%, at noon, 80%.

At 12: 30 p.m., almost all of the network was recharged. A priori, by Max Bordeaux, there is not damage. Now, the time is to the analysis of the incident. "To get a return of experience." A working group will consider to see what happened and if it cannot better respond. One can always improve. »

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1120 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED DURING THE MORNING
HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING...LOCAL EFFECTS AND
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. A TUTT LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FROM THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...FOCUSING THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

[msbee]

Rain, rain, glorious rain! Finally!

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INVADE OUR LOCAL REGION FROM THE EAST. THIS WEATHER PATTERN
WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED OVER PENUELAS...GUAYANILLA AND SABANA GRANDE.
ALSO...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS AFFECTED SAINT
CROIX...BUT THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED RAPIDLY. HIGH PRESSURE AT
UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE LOCALLY...WHICH WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST...OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS BETWEEN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN
SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND THEN...WILL PROPAGATE WEST OVER MOST
OF THE AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD...SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO.

AS THIS TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...CONDITIONS AT
UPPER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO. THE WETTEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 53 WEST
LONGITUDE...WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO FEATURES...PROMISE TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN THE LONG TERM
RANGE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL REGION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME SHRA MAY BRUSH THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF PR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR ACROSS TIST...TISX AND TJSJ. FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PR BTWN 21/17Z AND 21/21Z. AS A RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS
POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR.
WINDS FM SFC TO 30KFT WILL BE MAINLY FM THE E-NE BTW 10-15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 30 40 20 30
STT 77 89 79 90 / 50 50 20 20

[BZSTORM]

I know Hurricane Ernesto is now history and the season continues to unfold but this article by icylone's stormchaser Josh Morgerman chase of Hurr. Ernesto and conclusions & observations makes for some interesting reading. BTW icyclone has a page on Facebook. Here's the link to his write up of the chase http://icyclone.com/chases/ernesto-2012.html

[cycloneye]

I know Hurricane Ernesto is now history and the season continues to unfold but this article by icylone's stormchaser Josh Morgerman chase of Hurr. Ernesto and conclusions & observations makes for some interesting reading. BTW icyclone has a page on Facebook. Here's the link to his write up of the chase http://icyclone.com/chases/ernesto-2012.html

That was a very complete account of the chase from the planning to the aftermath. The important thing is that nothing occured to him while doing the chase.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1018 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012

.UPDATE...AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS THE WEST INTERIOR AND
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO QUICKLY DISSIPATED AFTER SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...MOST OF WHICH WERE MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS. FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
WITH SOME BRIEFLY REACHING THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SHORES FROM
TIME TO TIME. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE HOWEVER MINIMAL WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ONLY SMALL PATCHES OF SHALLOW
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS GOOD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TUTT LOW JUST EAST
OF THE ISLAND OF MARTINIQUE. EXPECT THIS LOW TO CONTINUE WESTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION A
WEAK TROPICAL WAVE JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUED TO
INTERACT WITH THE TUTT LOW AND WILL ALSO ENTER AND MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER STILL EXPECT
THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO APPROACHING FEATURES TO BRING MORE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SOME ACTIVE WEATHER ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED. NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some wet times are ahead for the Caribbean as a series of waves and troughs will be around.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A PAIR OF CUTOFF LOWS ONE ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC AND
ANOTHER ONE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS OVR THE NEXT
SVRL DAYS WHILE FILLING/WEAKENING. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
NE ATLC WILL DROP SOUTHWEST AND EXTEND A TROUGH INTO OUR AREA MID
NEXT WEEK. RIDGE THEN EVENTUALLY BUILDS OVR THE AREA AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PRETTY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THIS MORNING PER
NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON RADAR IMAGERY AND COLD CLOUD TOPS TO -50C ON
IR IMAGERY. THIS INSTABILITY AXIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE
CARIB WILL RETROGRESS IN TANDEM WITH TUTT LOW LOCATED NEAR
MARTINIQUE TO GIVE US AN ACTIVE DAY. DUE TO LOWERING WET-BULB ZERO
LEVELS AND LOWERING OF THE -20C HEIGHT SOME HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH
THE STRONGEST CELLS. THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE ON SAT FOR BETTER
TSTM CVRG THAN TODAY WITH TSTM ACTIVITY FCST TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS
NCNTRL/NWRN PR. TUTT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUN WITH MODELS
SHOWING SIG MID LEVEL DRYING BUT H5 COOL POOL WITH TEMPS AROUND
-8C WILL BE OVERHEAD. SO WHILE THERE SHOULD BE LESS CVRG...TSTMS
COULD BE MORE VIGOROUS AND AGAIN CONTAIN SOME HAIL.

TUTT FILLS/WEAKENS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
AROUND EACH DAY TO GIVE US SCT DIURNAL ACTIVITY. BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE
ATLC BREAKING DOWN WITH A SRN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS FL/BAHAMAS AND
CNTRL CARIBBEAN INTERACTING WITH EPAC/SW CARIBBEAN MONSOON TROF
WITH DEEP MOISTURE FCST TO POOL ACROSS HISPANIONA...PR AND EAST
CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA. SO CONDITIONS RIGHT TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH/START OF OCT COULD TURN VERY WET.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX...
TNCM/TKPK AND TJSJ THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AFTER 21/16Z...
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ AND THE VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 1-3 FT THROUGH SAT. NE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH
NADINE WILL START ARRIVING INTO OUR ATLC COASTAL WATERS SUN WITH
SEAS BUILDING UP TO 5 FT IN NE SWELLS.

&&

.CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2012 AT THE SAN JUAN AREA REMAINS AS THE DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD TO DATE WITH ONLY 0.31 INCHES SO FAR. IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURE...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS ON PACE TO BE THE WARMEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE SO FAR HAS BEEN 85.1
DEGREES. THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1995 WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES. AT CYRIL E. KING
AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS AND CHRISTIANSTED AIRPORT/SAINT
CROIX...SEPTEMBER 2012 REMAINS AS THE DRIEST AND SECOND DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.76 AND 1.38 INCHES RESPECTIVELY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 90 79 / 30 20 30 30
STT 89 79 90 80 / 40 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
233 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
ANOTHER ONE ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
APPROACHING TO THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
LATER OVER NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED SEVERAL
LOW LEVEL PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOWS. THESE PERTURBATIONS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...PRODUCING INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ACROSS EASTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO DURING THE NIGHTS AND ACROSS WESTERN...NORTHWEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THIS TYPE
OF WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FA UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL..NORTH AND WEST PR THROUGH 21/22Z. AS A
RESULT...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ...
WITH MTN TOP OBSCR OVR INTERIOR PR. WINDS FM SFC TO 15KFT WILL BE
MAINLY FM THE E-SE BTW 5-15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 91 / 20 30 40 40
STT 79 90 80 91 / 20 20 50 50

[cycloneye]

It has been 14 years since powerful hurricane Georges made landfall in Puerto Rico on September 21rst 1998. For me,it was not an experience I would repeat as I lived in a 5th floor of a condo and when the winds were at hurricane strength,the building was shaking a lot. Most of PR was without power for almost two weeks and there were very long lines of people to buy ice. PR has seen some landfalls of strong Tropical Storms after Georges such as Jeanne in 2004 and last season's Tropical Storm Irene on late August. But we haven't seen another hurricane landfall since 1998. The question is when will the next big one will strike this island? As we live on hurricane alley,every year we have to be watching to our east to see what is out there and sometime in the future,the lack of powerful hurricanes making landfall here after Georges will go by the window.

[Macrocane]

Latest HPC discussion for the Caribbean region:


TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2012

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 21/00 UTC: HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL-EASTERN USA TO THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
AT LOW LEVELS THIS SUSTAINS A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
FLORIDA/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TO SOUTH TEXAS. BOUNDARY IS TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING EARLY
IN THE CYCLE. THE SYSTEM ALSO FAVORS/SUSTAINS AN INDUCED
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO SOUTHERN GULF...ALSO
FORECAST TO WEAKEN. MEANWHILE...THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...FAVORING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN. FURTHERMORE...AN ARRIVING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION
FURTHERMORE (SEE BELOW). ACROSS THE QUINTANA ROO/BELIZE/NORTHERN
HONDURAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. EXPECTING A DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS. ACROSS EASTERN
VERACRUZ/CHIAPAS/TABASCO AND MOST OF GUATEMALA EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY ALSO THROUGH 60 HRS. AREA OF
HEAVIEST CONVECTION WILL CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY
60-84 HRS WITH MAXIMA INCREASING TO 35-70MM/DAY. ACTIVE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH THE CYCLE...WITH
STRONGEST CELLS REMAINING MOSTLY OFFSHORE.

IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE TROUGH OVER THE
CONTINENT SUSTAINS THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE REFLECTS AT MID-LEVELS AS IT CENTERS
AT 28N 72W. ALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...IT WILL REMAIN
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...HOWEVER...WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE RIDGE AND UNDER A
REGION OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENTLY ACTIVE PATTERN. ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AMOUNTS
FROM 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS EXPECTING HEAVIEST BY 36-60 HRS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY DECREASING SLOWLY AFTERWARDS.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A BROAD
TROUGH CENTERS ON A LOW AT 32N 55W. THE NHC IS MONITORING THIS
SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE... A REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS YET WELL ESTABLISHED LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. STILL...IN INTERACTION WITH
TUTT-INDUCED WAVE (SEE BELOW) EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY...WITH
HEAVIEST BY 60-84 HRS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
42W 44W 47W 50W 54W 57W 60W TW
59W 62W 65W 68W 71W 74W 77W TUTT INDCD
74W 77W 80W 83W 85W 88W 92W TW
84W 86W 88W 90W 92W 94W DISS TW
105W 107W 109W 110W 111W 113W 114W TW

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 42W. THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/WINDWARD ISLES BY 60-84 HRS
PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.
THE WAVE WILL ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA
AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATION ALONG 59W IS NOT SHOWING A STRONG
SIGNATURE IN CONVECTION ENHANCEMENT. STILL...IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TUTT...IT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH 36 HRS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS PERTURBATION WILL ENHANCE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO PUERTO RICO/VIRGIN ISLES LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY BY 36-60
HRS. ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W HAS ALSO A LIMITED EFFECT ON
CONVECTION. STILL...IT WILL FAVOR WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY ACROSS
JAMAICA. ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA IT WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS PANAMA TO COSTA RICA
IT WILL THEN FAVOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.

A STRONGER TROPICAL WAVE LIES TO THE EAST ALONG 84W TO SOUTH OF
22N. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH UPPER TROUGH AND BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTHWEST...AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AS WELL
AS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. OVER NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/BELIZE/EASTERN YUCATAN EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. OVER EL
SALVADOR/SOUTHERN HONDURAS EXPECTING HEAVIEST BY 36-60 HRS
REACHING 15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. SIMILAR
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER AND TO THE WEST OF
GUATEMALA...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

A WAVE ALONG 105W AND SOUTH OF 17N IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AS
IT MEANDERS WEST ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS SYSTEM FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. MEANWHILE...AS IT MEANDERS ACROSS GUERRERO TO
COLIMA/NAYARIT...THIS IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)