ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters has to say about El Nino Watch.

El Niño watch continues
Sea surface temperatures were at 0.5°C above average as of September 17 in the equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, and have been near or above the 0.5°C above average--the threshold needed for a weak El Niño event--since the beginning of July. However, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the region have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their September 6 El Niño discussion. They continued their El Niño watch, and gave a 69% chance that an El Niño event will be in place by the end of September. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear has been close to average over the tropical Atlantic since the beginning of hurricane season in June. However, the past few runs of the GFS model have predicted a significant rise in wind shear over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic by early October, which may represent El Niño finally beginning to kick in and affect the atmospheric circulation over the Atlantic.

This block of text has been repeated a lot this summer. Its been the same for a long while now. The bolded part: much more wind shear in the Caribbean? It has already been hostile to begin with this whole time!!

:uarrow:
It can't kick in soon enough IMO.

Yeah, we were all sweating bullets watching those weak CAT1 hurricanes thousands of miles away end up under-performing. I wouldn't mind it finishing the basin off either because I then wouldn't have to check up on it anymore every couple of days.

The PDO is colder this time go round so it will be interesting which will win out. We won't go to La Nina or cold neutral but it's still an interesting idea for the next few weeks before warming resumes.

I hope this happens, would throw everything off . The Nino 3.4 going down 0.3ºC in 1 week is a good start.

I agree with Dr Jeff Masters, shear was not that much of a problem during the season, the problem has been dry & stable air ruling the Caribbean and most of the tropical Atlantic.

[ozonepete]

Smart point.

[tolakram]

edit: Woops ... pays to read the entire thread before posting. Ah well, I'll make the same point as it's worth repeating.

This block of text has been repeated a lot this summer. Its been the same for a long while now. The bolded part: much more wind shear in the Caribbean? It has already been hostile to begin with this whole time!!

Hostile yes, but not because of wind shear.



Why did you think Masters was wrong here? Do you have different measurements to back up a claim that El Nino has been effecting the Caribbean all year?

What has been out of wack is instability, very similar to last years. It's as if the tropics are in a drought.



Seems to me many focus on the one magic bullet to make a season good or bad, and this year Nino was not it, in my opinion.

[dexterlabio]

I think I'm just gonna sit here and wait for an official announcement of El Nino. The mixed signals make me go nuts. When I thought Daily SOI values were going down steadily then it goes positive, and 3.4 cools down when I thought it would heat up.

And if ever Nino conditions were already present in June-August, it's just that these weren't enough to greatly affect the hurricane season in both EPAC and Atlantic. Just my opinion.

[Cyclenall]

I just want to stress to everyone that I didn't mention wind shear in my post, however a different form of wind shear did play a role in the problems systems in the Caribbean faced this year. The same result will continue, no TC's noteworthy in the Caribbean.

[weatherdude1108]

I think I'm just gonna sit here and wait for an official announcement of El Nino. The mixed signals make me go nuts. When I thought Daily SOI values were going down steadily then it goes positive, and 3.4 cools down when I thought it would heat up.

And if ever Nino conditions were already present in June-August, it's just that these weren't enough to greatly affect the hurricane season in both EPAC and Atlantic. Just my opinion.

I agree! Too many hands in the cookie jar. I'll just kick back and enjoy the ride.

I feel like the atmosphere is lagging behind the weak El Nino signals based on what I've read and the posts. It is acting neutral. Not enough warming to effect the big picture.

When La Nina went neutral earlier this year, didn't the atmosphere lag behind in that case? The atmosphere acted as though it were still La Nina, even though the ocean conditions suggested it was neutral? It is amazing how dynamic and complicated the whole system is!

[Kingarabian]

All I can tell you folks is, that despite summer being over and we should be getting into fall, it's hot! This summer has been hot as hell. Last year was much much cooler. I don't have stats to prove this, but I sell ice cream at my store and never have I sold this much ice cream.

It has rained a lot these past 2 weeks, but it's also been hot.

[LarryWx]

Hostile yes, but not because of wind shear.

What has been out of wack is instability, very similar to last years. It's as if the tropics are in a drought.

Seems to me many focus on the one magic bullet to make a season good or bad, and this year Nino was not it, in my opinion.

I've been given the impression that dryness/SAL are positively correlated with El Ninos to a decent extent. In other words, it isn't just increased shear that Ninos tend to produce. It does seem as if the last few Ninos have had above average levels of SAL. So, the weak Nino could very well have been having a good bit of influence after all..via SAL as opposed to shear. I don't know for sure, but I suspect it to be the case.

[weatherdude1108]

Hostile yes, but not because of wind shear.

What has been out of wack is instability, very similar to last years. It's as if the tropics are in a drought.

Seems to me many focus on the one magic bullet to make a season good or bad, and this year Nino was not it, in my opinion.

I've been given the impression that dryness/SAL are positively correlated with El Ninos to a decent extent. In other words, it isn't just increased shear that Ninos tend to produce. It does seem as if the last few Ninos have had above average levels of SAL. So, the weak Nino could very well have been having a good bit of influence after all..via SAL as opposed to shear. I don't know for sure, but I suspect it to be the case.

Saharan dust? I had to look up "SAL."

So the Ninos create the SAL? Or vice versa?

I love this site! Seeing these posts and threads, I realize how much I DON'T know about the weather. I feel humbled, and can't find the appropriate emoticon for humbleness.

[Ntxw]

I don't think El Nino's directly makes more SAL. It would be a mistake to pinpoint one feature as to why a hurricane season is good or fails. It would also be a mistake to disregard any single event as to not either. You have to look at it as a whole picture not one working over the others but how they react to each other. The Indian Dipole controls the monsoon there, which in turns feeds storms through northern Africa (Eastern Africa had experienced it's worst drought in decades last summer and fall).

An El Nino (of any kind) likes to influence this by promoting the MJO away from the Indian Ocean. This in turn cuts off systems from dampening the Saharan dust and cause drought in northern Africa. I am not saying this is the reason (it may even be some kind of MJO cycle) but it's one of the many intricacies of the global atmospheric patterns as a whole and saying El Nino had no cause or even full cause is not taking everything into consideration.

[NDG]

All I can tell you folks is, that despite summer being over and we should be getting into fall, it's hot! This summer has been hot as hell. Last year was much much cooler. I don't have stats to prove this, but I sell ice cream at my store and never have I sold this much ice cream.

It has rained a lot these past 2 weeks, but it's also been hot.

Is really hard for me to swallow that Hawaii has been hotter this summer than last summer with such a cold PDO surrounding the Hawaiian Islands this summer.
Sooo, I went to the climate page of Honolulu and sure thing, officially at the Honolulu Int Airport as well as other official sites across the Islands, it has been cooler than average this summer if anything cooler than last summer.
Do you have any facts to back up your statement?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=hnl

[Kingarabian]

All I can tell you folks is, that despite summer being over and we should be getting into fall, it's hot! This summer has been hot as hell. Last year was much much cooler. I don't have stats to prove this, but I sell ice cream at my store and never have I sold this much ice cream.

It has rained a lot these past 2 weeks, but it's also been hot.

Is really hard for me to swallow that Hawaii has been hotter this summer than last summer with such a cold PDO surrounding the Hawaiian Islands this summer.
Sooo, I went to the climate page of Honolulu and sure thing, officially at the Honolulu Int Airport as well as other official sites across the Islands, it has been cooler than average this summer if anything cooler than last summer.
Do you have any facts to back up your statement?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=hnl

The facts to back up my statement are from the locals and I of course. I know the numbers say it's "cooler" but trust me, my electricity bill has averaged $900.00 a month this summer (2 commercial air conditioning units on full blast for 10 hours a day, 7 days a week(Because it's hot!!!)) compared to last summer which was an average of $625.00 . It's also nearing fall as well...

My bottles of water sales are higher then ever as well.
Ice cream sales.
More people lurking in my store because of the heat outside.

Trust me it's hot.

[NDG]

All I can tell you folks is, that despite summer being over and we should be getting into fall, it's hot! This summer has been hot as hell. Last year was much much cooler. I don't have stats to prove this, but I sell ice cream at my store and never have I sold this much ice cream.

It has rained a lot these past 2 weeks, but it's also been hot.

Is really hard for me to swallow that Hawaii has been hotter this summer than last summer with such a cold PDO surrounding the Hawaiian Islands this summer.
Sooo, I went to the climate page of Honolulu and sure thing, officially at the Honolulu Int Airport as well as other official sites across the Islands, it has been cooler than average this summer if anything cooler than last summer.
Do you have any facts to back up your statement?

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=hnl

The facts to back up my statement are from the locals and I of course. I know the numbers say it's "cooler" but trust me, my electricity bill has averaged $900.00 a month this summer (2 commercial air conditioning units on full blast for 10 hours a day, 7 days a week(Because it's hot!!!)) compared to last summer which was an average of $625.00 . It's also nearing fall as well...

My bottles of water sales are higher then ever as well.
Ice cream sales.
More people lurking in my store because of the heat outside.

Trust me it's hot.

Rookies
You guys have not even broke 90 during the summer, come over here to central interior FL to feel what really a hot and humid summer feels like.
Maybe you guys feel "hotter" because the easterly "cooling" winds, which I have not looked at, are as strong as last summer, but not that the actual temperatures are hotter.

[Ntxw]

Daily SOI hit 21.22 today, pretty high considering the circumstances. The MJO is very weak and incoherent at this time.

[LarryWx]

Daily SOI hit 21.22 today, pretty high considering the circumstances. The MJO is very weak and incoherent at this time.

Wow, that 21.22 for 9/20 has to be a mistake. That assumes that the Darwin 24 hour averaged pressure fell from 1012.50 to 1009.10 mb. That definitely didn't occur! It was more like ~1012, which means that the daily SOI was really ~+4 rather than +21.22. This is based on looking at hourly SLP's as well as sfc weather maps. I often follow this day by day. This is a very rare error on their part. Hopefully, they'll fix it on their own. Nevertheless, I'll try to contact them.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

[South Texas Storms]

The monthly ENSO models updated today and most models are now forecasting a peak of about .8 to .9 C SSTs for this Nino event. Ntxw, do you still think this Nino will peak at moderate strength?

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

[cycloneye]

Here is the complete discussion about the Mid September update of the ENSO models.

http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[Ntxw]

The monthly ENSO models updated today and most models are now forecasting a peak of about .8 to .9 C SSTs for this Nino event. Ntxw, do you still think this Nino will peak at moderate strength?

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

I still do think it will end up low end moderate despite the recent changes. Thanks for posting the models guys! In reality for forecasting the winter low end moderate/high end weak doesn't have many differences whichever way it goes.

I did notice on the SST charts, the eastern extent of the warming in the northern-central Pacific is extending to the northeast portion just south of Alaska. Could be a sign of the cold PDO weakening in response to the latest -EPO pattern. If we can get the PDO to pop a little warmer for DJF we could get coast to coast cold with a weak nino.

[South Texas Storms]

The monthly ENSO models updated today and most models are now forecasting a peak of about .8 to .9 C SSTs for this Nino event. Ntxw, do you still think this Nino will peak at moderate strength?

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/cu ... table.html

I still do think it will end up low end moderate despite the recent changes. Thanks for posting the models guys! In reality for forecasting the winter low end moderate/high end weak doesn't have many differences whichever way it goes.

I did notice on the SST charts, the eastern extent of the warming in the northern-central Pacific is extending to the northeast portion just south of Alaska. Could be a sign of the cold PDO weakening in response to the latest -EPO pattern.

Do you think the warmer waters now across the EPAC will slowly move west into region 3.4 over the next few weeks?
And when do you think El Nino will finally start to affect the atmospheric patterns across North America, aka when will the subtropical jet start to affect the southern U.S.?

[Ntxw]

Do you think the warmer waters now across the EPAC will slowly move west into region 3.4 over the next few weeks?
And when do you think El Nino will finally start to affect the atmospheric patterns across North America, aka when will the subtropical jet start to affect the southern U.S.?

I don't think the warming will come from the east moving west. As some posts before, the sub-surface tells the story that the western regions is where warming will happen first. 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 after the cooling periods (volatile Septembers) all resumed warming at the sub-surface from the west and as this pool progressed by upwelling to the surface we had our peaks in Oct-Dec. I believe it will happen the same way this go round.

GWO is a good indicator of the atmosphere I recently learned, and it has been low amplitude which means no El Nino atmospheric patterns yet. But it's neutral now and when it pops positive we have it. Though the -EPO pattern may be sign it has begun.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/g ... ites.shtml - Click the 40 days

STJ is a hard variable to predict, we may have already been affected with it feeding into the last storm and EPAC activity. When/if the Nino gets stronger so will the jet.