ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

I think it transitioned to ST, then to LOW. They did say the convection was away from the center and that the strongest winds were further from the center than normal...so I think for at least a couple BT times, it was ST...then degenerated to a low with no convection.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Nadine

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO at 40%.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
AND IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. REGENERATION OF
THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

[cycloneye]

Believe it or not,they are still doing missions to Ex Nadine.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 22 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-126

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WILL FLY AS
STATED IN TCPOD 12-125 EXCEPT TAKEOFF
TIME MOVED UP ONE HOUR TO 22/1700Z.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE IS LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES WEST-
NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO
10 MPH. WHILE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION
OF THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Very little doubt this won't re-transition back into a fully tropical storm. Sea Surface Temperatures will be gradually warming over the next 96 hours according to SHIPS. With an upper-level anticyclone forecast to build atop the storm, it wouldn't surprise me to see Nadine regain hurricane intensity before being absorbed finally by a front in 6-7 days.

[HenkL]

GFS and ECMWF models (12Z) now agree on (ex-)Nadine going west and getting stronger again later on.

[greenkat]

Is this going to pose a threat to the Canary Islands/W. Sahara? That would just be...

[brunota2003]

I think we might see our percentage chances increasing with the 8 pm TWO...maybe to as high as 60% or 70%. Plenty of convection near where the center was forecast to be, and it is sticking around...not pulsing.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO remains at 40%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS
IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT
575 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM
INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY
WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

[brunota2003]

Or not

[galaxy401]

They did note the increase though but only "somewhat".

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 14, 2012092300, , BEST, 0, 304N, 257W, 45, 987, LO

[DanieleItalyRm]

IT Increase:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Evil Jeremy]

Up to 60%.

[P.K.]

This is the latest Meteo-France warning on this.

WONT50 LFPW 230820

A
SECURITE ON METAREA 2, METEO-FRANCE,
WARNING NR 390, SUNDAY 23 SEPTEMBER 2012 AT 0820 UTC
GENERAL SYNOPSIS, SUNDAY 23 AT 00 UTC
LOW 993 44N14W, MOVING NORTHEAST AND DEEPENING, EXPECTED 990 50N04W
BY 24/00 UTC, THEN MOVING NORTH AND EXPECTED 985 54N04W BY 24/12 UTC.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE 997 NEAR 30N26W, SLOW-MOVING, EXPECTED
995 NEAR 31N28W BY 24/12 UTC.
IROISE, YEU
FROM 24/00 UTC TO 24/09 UTC.
NORTHWEST 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
ROCHEBONNE
FROM 23/21 UTC TO 24/09 UTC.
SOUTHWEST 8, VEERING WEST OR NORTHWEST SOON. SEVERE GUSTS.
AGAIN FROM 24/15 UTC TO 24/21 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTHWEST 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
CANTABRICO
FROM 23/18 UTC TO 24/18 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTHWEST INCREASING 8 OR 9, VEERING WESTERLY SOON, BACKING WEST OR
SOUTHWEST 8 LATER. SEVERE GUSTS.
FINISTERRE
CONTINUING TO 24/00 UTC.
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST 8, VEERING NORTHWEST SOON.
AGAIN FROM 24/09 UTC TO 24/12 UTC AT LEAST.
SOUTHWEST 8. SEVERE GUSTS.
PAZENN
CONTINUING TO 24/00 UTC.
CYCLONIC AT TIMES 8, BECOMING NORTHWEST 8 SOON. SEVERE GUSTS.
EAST OF ROMEO :
CONTINUING TO 23/18 UTC.
NORTHERLY 8. GUSTS.
EAST OF CHARCOT :
CONTINUING TO 23/18 UTC.
CYCLONIC 8, MAINLY NORTHWESTERLY. SEVERE GUSTS. HIGH AND CROSS SEA .
NORTH OF PORTO :
CONTINUING TO 23/18 UTC.
SOUTHWEST OR WEST 8. GUSTS.
IRVING, NORTH OF METEOR :
CONTINUING TO 24/12 UTC AT LEAST.
CYCLONIC 8, LOCALLY NORTH OR NORTHEAST 9 OVER IRVING, DECREASING OVER
METEOR LATER. SEVERE GUSTS. LOCALLY HIGH AND CROSS SEA.=

[DanieleItalyRm]

Because the track near europe does not start? they should not stop . ..



NADINE (TS)
wind 50 kts (93 Km/h)
Gust 60 kts (111 Km/h)
987 Hpa



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Up to 90%

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 460 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE.

[DanieleItalyRm]

This structure It's already a tropical storm, without a doubt.
If it had been on the coast of U.S.A. it was already 'classified.

[cycloneye]

12z Best track is at Tropical Storm status.

AL, 14, 2012092312, , BEST, 0, 305N, 254W, 45, 987, TS