western eyewall illuminated by sunlight
almost the same size --- the eye of Jelawat and the island of Catanduanes
WPAC: JELAWAT - Post-Tropical
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3715
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
visible
western eyewall illuminated by sunlight
almost the same size --- the eye of Jelawat and the island of Catanduanes
western eyewall illuminated by sunlight
almost the same size --- the eye of Jelawat and the island of Catanduanes
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
-
dexterlabio
- Category 5
- Posts: 3468
- Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm
anyway, does anyone notice the eye getting cloud-filled?
EDITED: Okay it's just me.
The eye is still very clear on IR imagery.
EDITED: Okay it's just me.
The eye is still very clear on IR imagery.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
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- Contact:
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Looks like small low level vortices / cloud swirls in the eye, doesn't look to be "filling in" in the usual way we see it. That's my take! 
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cycloneye
- Admin
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.0N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.3N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 127.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 15.7N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 16.6N 127.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 17.7N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.7N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.8N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.0N 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.3N 124.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 27.3N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 127.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
I've always thought Super Typhoon Zeb in 1998 was a beautiful storm.
As you can see in the photo, Zeb was a powerful typhoon that made landfall on the Philippines at peak intensity. (1-minute sustained winds of 155KT!) While I admire the beauty of the storm, that doesn't mean I enjoy the fact that it was a deadly and destructive storm.
As you can see in the photo, Zeb was a powerful typhoon that made landfall on the Philippines at peak intensity. (1-minute sustained winds of 155KT!) While I admire the beauty of the storm, that doesn't mean I enjoy the fact that it was a deadly and destructive storm.
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-
windysocks
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 29
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2010 5:16 am
- Location: Hong Kong
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Goodbye, ricmood.
Seems that no one is quite sure where Jelawat is going to end up. A recurve west of Taiwan would surely mean that Taiwan is going to be visited twice (again) by a huge storm. Not good news!
Seems that no one is quite sure where Jelawat is going to end up. A recurve west of Taiwan would surely mean that Taiwan is going to be visited twice (again) by a huge storm. Not good news!
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145295
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
HurricaneBill wrote:I've always thought Super Typhoon Zeb in 1998 was a beautiful storm.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/storm_archi ... /ZEB4A.GIF
As you can see in the photo, Zeb was a powerful typhoon that made landfall on the Philippines at peak intensity. (1-minute sustained winds of 155KT!) While I admire the beauty of the storm, that doesn't mean I enjoy the fact that it was a deadly and destructive storm.
We created Storm2k for the tropical weather followers to track Tropical Cyclones around the world,many make landfall and many others stay at open sea. What you said is exactly the message that this weather community wants to send about tracking cyclones. Ok,let's go back to the Jelawat topic.
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DukeDevil91
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 62
- Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 4:04 pm
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
windysocks wrote:Goodbye, ricmood.
Seems that noone is quite sure where Jelawat is going to end up. A recurve west of Taiwan would surely mean that Taiwan is going to be visited twice (again) by a huge storm. Not good news!
This system is quite a bit larger than Tembin, yes?
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-
euro6208
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
T numbers/UW CIMSS in this situation are irrelevant...who knows how strong jelawat is...
i personally would say 155 knots!
i personally would say 155 knots!
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
They should send recon into those typhoons and get actual pressure and winds.
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Latest Discussion...a developing poleward outflow might actually intensify jelawat a bit more...
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 242158Z
CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 7.0. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. STY 18W IS SITUATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT, INCLUDING A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STY 18W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SITUATED
ALMOST DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD CONSISTENT WITH A SHIFT IN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CURRENT RUN.
B. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NORTH OF
STY 18W TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND STEER STY 18W MORE
WESTWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE WBAR STILL PREDICTS
AN ABRUPT AND HIGHLY IMPROBABLE POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE STEERING
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTAINING THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MODEL
AIDS. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLOWLY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES A BIT RESTRICTED BY THE BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AHEAD OF A SECOND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST ASIA DURING NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY REGARDING TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
FOLLOWING RECURVATURE. THE GFDN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A RAPID TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFDN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON A SATELLITE EYE FIX FROM PGTW AND A 242158Z
CORIOLIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT
WITH A PGTW DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 7.0. RECENT ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PERSISTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE. STY 18W IS SITUATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW
ALOFT, INCLUDING A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. STY 18W IS
TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL
STEERING RIDGE TOWARD THE BASE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW SITUATED
ALMOST DIRECTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD CONSISTENT WITH A SHIFT IN
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE CURRENT RUN.
B. STY 18W IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED TO THE NORTH OF
STY 18W TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ITS WAKE AND STEER STY 18W MORE
WESTWARD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THROUGH FORECAST TAU 72, ALTHOUGH THE WBAR STILL PREDICTS
AN ABRUPT AND HIGHLY IMPROBABLE POLEWARD TRACK INTO THE STEERING
RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72 LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTAINING THE REMAINING CONSENSUS MODEL
AIDS. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND ALONG-TRACK OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT REMAIN FAVORABLE. AFTER TAU 24, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE SLOWLY AS OUTFLOW BECOMES A BIT RESTRICTED BY THE BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN INCREASED MODEL AGREEMENT, THERE IS
NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.
C. STY 18W IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE STEERING RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72 AHEAD OF A SECOND MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EAST ASIA DURING NEXT FEW DAYS. INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM DURING THIS PERIOD. A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE EXTENDED
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY REGARDING TRANSLATIONAL SPEED
FOLLOWING RECURVATURE. THE GFDN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A RAPID TRACK
TO THE NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, WHICH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
THEREFORE, THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE GFDN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN POST-RECURVATURE TRACK SPEED, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Tornado or whirlwind as the PI government is calling it, regardless it caused a big scare.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/09/25/lawin-jelawat-produces-a-whirlwind-tornado-that-strikes-quezon-philippines/
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/09/25/lawin-jelawat-produces-a-whirlwind-tornado-that-strikes-quezon-philippines/
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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RobWESTPACWX
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Ptarmigan wrote:They should send recon into those typhoons and get actual pressure and winds.
O how this would be a blessing, unfortunately that hasn't happened for quite sometime now.
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Satellites, Charts and Forecasting tools for East Asia at WESTERNPACIFICWEATHER.COM
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euro6208
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
RobWESTPACWX wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:They should send recon into those typhoons and get actual pressure and winds.
O how this would be a blessing, unfortunately that hasn't happened for quite sometime now.
we have global hawks stationed on guam and more coming in the next few years to monitor our basin...hopefully a sign that recon will be back after so many years...
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Meow
Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
Typhoon Hunter wrote:Looks like small low level vortices / cloud swirls in the eye, doesn't look to be "filling in" in the usual way we see it. That's my take!
You can see an anticyclonic vortex in every strong tropical cyclone’s eye via visible imagery.
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Typhoon Hunter
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Re: WPAC: JELAWAT - Typhoon
euro6208 wrote:RobWESTPACWX wrote:Ptarmigan wrote:They should send recon into those typhoons and get actual pressure and winds.
O how this would be a blessing, unfortunately that hasn't happened for quite sometime now.
we have global hawks stationed on guam and more coming in the next few years to monitor our basin...hopefully a sign that recon will be back after so many years...
Oohh that would be surperb. The operating costs of Global Hawks must be so much lower than sending in a C-130 or P3. We could gather so much useful information on the strongest storms on the planet by having Wpac recon. It was a real miracle we had recon when Megi was a full peak.
Dvorak holding steady at T7.0 right now, interests in SE Taiwan really need to keep a close eye on this, slight shift left in track and they'll be dealing with a landfall. Hope those folks in Luzon are watching closely too!
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brunota2003
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euro6208
Re:
brunota2003 wrote:I tink I read that the WPac is supposed to start getting recon in 2014 by a system much similar to our Global Hawks in the Atlantic? I wish I could remember where I read it so I could dig up the link.
http://www.guampdn.com/article/20120911/NEWS01/120911002/UPDATE-New-Navy-drones-will-deploy-Guam
is it this one? ...yes they will be deployed in 2014 but operations wouldn't start by 2017...
The military will start preparing to deploy the drones to during Fiscal 2014, and operations in the Pacific should start about three years later
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