Super Typhoon Jelawat with his 40 nm eye!
WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.0N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.5N 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.2N 124.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.5N 131.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 33.8N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 38.7N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 124.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W
(EWINIAR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 18W (JELAWAT) WARNING NR
27//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 18W (JELAWAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A VERY SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A
THICK RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AND A NOW LARGER 40 NM EYE. A 262326Z
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED AND WELL
DEFINED SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGE EYE IN
THE MSI ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM
140 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND IS APPROACHING A
RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. STY 18W IS TRACKING ALONG SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN
EXTENSION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. STY 18W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NER.
AFTERWARDS, A SECONDARY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY EXITING FROM
EASTERN CHINA, WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THE NER
CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER TAU 48, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EAST OF JAPAN, ALSO WEAKENED BY THE SAME
TROUGH, WILL ASSUME STEERING AND CAUSE 18W TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, STEERED BY THE STR, STY 18W WILL
CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 96, AND MAKING LANDFALL ON
HONSHU, JAPAN. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK
POSITION, THEY VARY IN FORWARD TRANSLATION SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.
IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, MODELS ALSO CONTINUALLY VARY IN FORWARD
TRANSLATION SPEED, WITH ECMWF CONTINUALLY SHOWING A VERY SLOW TRACK.
ALL MODELS NOW TRACK ACROSS JAPAN AND INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN, BUT
HISTORICALLY STORMS ARE NOT ABLE TO CROSS JAPAN'S MOUNTAINOUS
GEOGRAPHY, THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES LANDFALL IN JAPAN
BUT STAYS EAST. DUE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL SPEED, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.//
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