![Image](http://imageshack.us/a/img209/3866/wp1912.gif)
WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 30.3N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.3N 142.3E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 31.5N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 32.4N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 06 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 33.2N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 34.9N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 41.2N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 30.6N 142.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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possible typhoon?
WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 19W (EWINIAR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 345 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
WEAKENING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 262118Z 37GHZ
CORIOLIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A TIGHTLY WRAPPED SYSTEM WITH
A SMALL EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO APPEAR. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT AUTOMATED
INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE CORIOLIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS TS 19W BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A
CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 19W IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER IT. TS 19W WILL LIKELY HOLD ITS INTENSITY DESPITE
THIS INTERACTION DUE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT CURRENTLY IN PLACE.
AFTER TAU 24, TS 19W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 36 UPON A
REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WILL COMMENCE BY TAU 48 AND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME FULLY
EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY INSIDE
AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR HISTORICAL
TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE DURING RECURVATURE SCENARIOS AND TO OFFSET
GFDN WHICH TAKES AN ERRONEOUS POLEWARD TRACK. DUE TO GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.//
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