WPAC: MALIKSI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

8.1N-154.5E..Southeast of Guam...

[euro6208]

here we go!


AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 151.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
FLARING OVER A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 272155Z
SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOWLY-DEVELOPING, ELONGATED LLCC WITH
WEAK, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 272356Z ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. A SHIP OBSERVATION
AT 9.8N 150.3E INDICATES 10-KNOT NORTHERLY WINDS AND SLP NEAR 1007MB
WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT CHUUK (7.5N 151.9E) INDICATE
PERSISTENT 10-15 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS, SLP NEAR 1006MB AND A 24-HOUR
SLP DECREASE OF 1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND
LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON
THE WEAK LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

looks like another round of rain coming...



000
WWMY80 PGUM 290114
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1114 AM CHST SAT SEP 29 2012

GUZ001>005-291300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1114 AM CHST SAT SEP 29 2012

...MONSOON DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

A MONSOON DISTURBANCE IS CENTERED NEAR 11 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
152 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS LARGE
AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MARIANAS.

SHOWERY WEATHER AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE MARIANAS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
SHOWERY WEATHER COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.

THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAY ALSO NEED TO ISSUE
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IF AND WHEN UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES
LIKELY ACROSS THE MARIANAS. THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WOULD BE
TRANSMITTED UNDER WMO HEADER FGMY70 PGUM.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

*maliksi* is developing...quite a large monsoon system...

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
151.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 149.2E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
AN ELONGATED REGION OF BROAD TURNING WITH A STRUGGLING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITHIN THE REGION STARTING TO
CONSOLIDATE. A RECENT 282334Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A REGION OF ENHANCED EASTERLY FLOW (20-25
KNOTS), HOWEVER THE PASS MISSED THE LLCC. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PASS
SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL WINDS ARE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SURFACE
PRESSURES TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN GUAM (CURRENTLY 1003.4
MB) INDICATES AN APPROXIMATELY 2 MB FALL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC
IS CREATING AN AREA OF BROAD DIFFLUENCE AND IS PROVIDING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW SUPPORT. ADDITIONALLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) APPEARS
TO BE LOW TO MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS), BASED ON THE RECENT 290000Z
JTWC UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVING SIGNATURE OF
THE LLCC, GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND CURRENT SURFACE PRESSURE TRENDS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[Meow]

Now it is a tropical depression, and it may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 13:30 UTC, 29 September 2012

<Analyses at 29/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°50'(12.8°)
E151°00'(151.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°10'(16.2°)
E146°00'(146.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 291255
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1055 PM CHST SAT SEP 29 2012

GUZ001>005-300100-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1055 PM CHST SAT SEP 29 2012

...MONSOON DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

A MONSOON DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 11.5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 149.5 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE SATURDAY NIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. THESE SHOWERS
COVER THE LOCAL AREA...AND LARGE AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
MARIANAS.

THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND REMAINS FAIRLY
DISORGANIZED. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE MARIANAS. SHOWERY WEATHER AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN
THE COMING DAYS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAY ISSUE A HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK IF AND WHEN UNUSUALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BECOMES LIKELY ACROSS
THE MARIANAS. THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WOULD BE TRANSMITTED UNDER WMO
HEADER FGMY70 PGUM.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

ZIOBRO/CHAN

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 300200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2N 150.7E TO 19.3N 147.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 300130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 150.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 111.7E, IS
NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 345 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW VORTEX HAS
EMERGED AND BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDS HAVE CONSIDERABLY DEEPENED
AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS
PROGRESSION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY
INCLUDING A 302314Z AMSU-B PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
MARGINAL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
010200Z. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 300251 AAA
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1251 PM CHST SUN SEP 30 2012

GUZ001>005-301300-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1251 PM CHST SUN SEP 30 2012

UPDATED TO UPGRADE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

...MONSOON DISTURBANCE ORGANIZING EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

A MONSOON DISTURBANCE WAS CENTERED NEAR 14.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 150.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE THIS MORNING...AND IS NOW THE
SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON
WARNING CENTER. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE COVER A LARGE AREA BETWEEN 9N AND
12N FROM 141E TO 147E WHICH IS SOUTH OF GUAM...AND BETWEEN 9N AND
18N FROM 147E TO 162E WHICH IS EAST OF THE MARIANAS.

THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED BUT
IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES. MODELS SHOW THAT THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE MARIANAS...PROBABLY NORTH OF SAIPAN. SHOWERY
WEATHER AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

[Meow]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 300251 .

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

I don’t know why you still haven’t edited the title. It is already a tropical depression with 30 knots 10-min maximum sustained winds.

[euro6208]

a outer rainband about to move over us....some heavy downpour expected throughout the marianas...

[Extratropical94]

NRL has it listed as 20W.TWENTY, I guess the first JTWC advisory will be out shortly.

[Extratropical94]

WTPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300152Z SEP 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 149.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 149.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.0N 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 19.7N 145.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 21.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 28.4N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 34.1N 147.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 42.2N 157.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 148.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
NORTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 300200Z SEP 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 300200) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 301200Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND
011500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Depression 20W

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 301344
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1144 PM CHST SUN SEP 30 2012

GUZ001>005-010200-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1144 PM CHST SUN SEP 30 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W HAS FORMED EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.7 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE AND 148.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS
ABOUT 340 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM...220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
SAIPAN...190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN AND 210 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12
MPH.

THIS DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND WILL
POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOMETIME ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS PREDICTED TO MOVE NORTH OF PAGAN BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SHOWERY WEATHER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY. SOME AREAS COULD EXPEREICE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND LISTEN FOR
THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

ZIOBRO

[euro6208]

First Discussion on our 20th tropical cyclone...born on the first day of october...

WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHEAST OF
GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN BANDS OF
DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN ORGANIZING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS
REACHED BETWEEN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITY
FAVORS THE LOWER AS THE ORGANIZATION HAS ONLY RECENTLY IMPROVED. TD
20W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED
OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, IN ADDITION TO THE RECENT PASSAGE OF TS 18W
HAS CAUSED A WEAKNESS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR CAUSING
TD 20W TO TRACK NORTH-WESTWARD TOWARDS THE BREAK IN THE STR. SURFACE
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
RANGING FROM 29 TO 31 CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 20W
IS LOCATED UNDER A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DEVELOPING TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH ENHANCE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS
(10 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 20W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, AND WILL BE NEAR THE STR AXIS
AROUND TAU 72. FAVORABLE SSTS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS OF VWS WILL ALLOW TD 20W TO STEADILY INTENSIFY.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD BUT IN GENERAL INDICATES A
NORTHWEST TRACK OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, HOWEVER THE
NUMBER OF AVAILABLE MODEL AIDS IS LIMITED IN THIS EARLY STAGE OF
DEVELOPMENT.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, TAKING
TD 20W INTO THE MID-LATITUDES AND TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL
SYSTEM BY TAU 120. TD 20W WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD JUST BEYOND TAU
72, ACCELERATING THROUGH TAU 120 AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE NORTH OF THE
STR AXIS AND WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW.
AS THIS IS THE FIRST FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE
TRACK AND INTENSIFICATION.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

incredibly huge!

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 301500
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 1 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W HAS FORMED EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.6 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

190 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALAMAGAN
210 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN
220 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
340 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...16.7 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
148.6 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM CHST.

$$

AYDLETT

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 010314
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202012
200 PM CHST MON OCT 1 2012

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W PASSING SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALAMAGAN...PAGAN AND
AGRIHAN ISLANDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS.

AT 100 PM CHST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.8 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

30 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ALAMAGAN
55 MILES SOUTH OF PAGAN
105 MILES SOUTH OF AGRIHAN
150 MILES NORTH OF SAIPAN AND
275 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13
MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FORWARD SPEED
AND CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 MPH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL
STORM TONIGHT. THE CENTER OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W IS CURRENTLY
PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALAMAGAN.

REPEATING THE 100 PM POSITION...17.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
145.8 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT 500 PM CHST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 PM.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 146.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 146.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.4N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 19.8N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 21.2N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.1N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 26.7N 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 32.4N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 39.5N 155.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 145.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF PAGAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 11
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z. //
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