Texas Fall 2012

[horselattitudesfarm]

The QPF forecast out of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) continues to ramp up for Texas. Values from 1-4 inches look likely now with a solid 1-2 inches in south central Texas. Seen some parallels in the NWSFO AFDs to the event on Sept. 13-14. That would be great!

http://imageshack.us/a/img715/3455/p120i12.gif

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Notice how the heavy 'good' rains are shown to avoid us here in the DFW area.....again

[jasons2k]

I could use the rain here. I mostly missed out on the rains from two weeks ago, so it's been about a month since I've had any decent rain. The plants sure could use it. I'll be interested to see tonight's model runs since they seemed to split today.

[cycloneye]

Texas folks for sure are happy to see this unfold. Saved loop.

[Rgv20]

Flash Flood Warning

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC479-290630-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0035.120929T0339Z-120929T0630Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1039 PM CDT FRI SEP 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
WESTERN WEBB COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CDT

* AT 1028 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM
NORTHWEST WEBB COUNTY...SOUTH INTO MEXICO. BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN ACROSS RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWEST WEBB
COUNTY...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.
IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE CITY OF
LAREDO OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS...PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAREDO...BOTINES...CALLAGHAN...CHUPADERA RANCH AIRPORT...COLUMBIA
BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 2821 9941 2803 9939 2803 9933 2792 9928
2739 9926 2739 9950 2749 9949 2749 9953
2759 9954 2760 9959 2763 9961 2762 9966
2765 9972 2772 9977 2779 9988 2797 9994
2799 10000 2813 10009 2820 10021

$$

JR

[Terri]

Do I see a clearing for those of us in the Austin area?

[Ntxw]

Was a few days off and a little too aggressive with the cold front. Did deliver morning lows though! Latest CPC output is cooler than normal for the central part of the country the second half of the month. The PNA is forecasted to rise positive, this supports the cooler idea. For Texas I think we get a cold front once a week chipping away at temps slowly. Euro and GFS agrees.

CFSv2 is hinting at a start of persistent wet conditions for the state starting late this month. Analogs point to this scenario. The 5h pattern for North America is shifting into an EPO-/-AO configuration later this month. This should translate into a likely wet/cold October.

The PNA did not rise as positive and in fact was slightly negative side of neutral. This probably aided in the week-long heat just after mid-month which in fact was impressive. The current weather coincides with the shift of EPO and has begun the wet/cooler period.



Heading into first half October, CPC is showing below to much below average for the middle of the country. The models (ensembles included) favor the EPO to go very negative which should translate into a +PNA for much of this period. We should look for passage of a very potent cold front by next weekend into the following week. Probably chilliest and most fall-like air mass of the season. Analogs suggest a wet and cold October, so following what happens this month is crucial both in terms of cold air and storm patterns.

So far this fall, I have noticed the storm track through Texas has been west to east versus the usual Panhandle hooker that swings up into the midwest. This is the reason we have been lacking severe weather. Instead we get a few days of wet/cool via slow moving upper lows. Is this a trend? I sure hope so for winter's sake for the eastern half of the country (gulf lows anyone?).

[Rgv20]

A chance of Severe Thunderstorms this evening for my area..



Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase during the day today. The slow approach of a cold front interacting with deep tropical moisture will generate showers and thunderstorms across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe, with locally heavy rainfall and strong, damaging winds. Any of the heavier showers and thunderstorms will have the potential to produce nuisance flooding in low lying and poorly draining areas. Marine: Small craft should exercise caution on Laguna Madre and on the offshore waters today. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 10 pm this evening through Sunday evening for the Gulf Waters. -Billings-

[weatherdude1108]

Streets and highways were dry on the trip to SA and back. We have gotten about an inch of rain. Looks like this "historic flood" prediction isn't coming to fruition. Lakes will not benefit (again), but the plants and trees will like it.

[Ntxw]

Streets and highways were dry on the trip to SA and back. We have gotten about an inch of rain. Looks like this "historic flood" prediction isn't coming to fruition. Lakes will not benefit (again), but the plants and trees will like it.

The flooding has been further west than SA and near I-20 in west Texas along the upper low. It seems the globals were the first to sniff this out of a further north track. I disagree that the lakes won't benefit, the Edwards plateau has been inundated and the river levels will feed downstream to various lakes (Colorado River looks to benefit).

[Shoshana]

Near P'ville in Austin so far since abt 9 pm last night we've received 2.1" of rain. Pretty significant amount. No flooding though.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
406 PM CDT SAT SEP 29 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 404 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR
GREEN LAKE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF PORT LAVACA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KAMAY...
PORT LAVACA...
ALAMO BEACH...
POINT COMFORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 2856 9650 2852 9651 2848 9681 2860 9688
2870 9665 2865 9660 2860 9660 2860 9658
2870 9658 2871 9644 2873 9641 2871 9639
2867 9640 2866 9637 2865 9641 2862 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 247DEG 13KT 2858 9678

$$

TMT

[weatherdude1108]

Streets and highways were dry on the trip to SA and back. We have gotten about an inch of rain. Looks like this "historic flood" prediction isn't coming to fruition. Lakes will not benefit (again), but the plants and trees will like it.

The flooding has been further west than SA and near I-20 in west Texas along the upper low. It seems the globals were the first to sniff this out of a further north track. I disagree that the lakes won't benefit, the Edwards plateau has been inundated and the river levels will feed downstream to various lakes (Colorado River looks to benefit).

http://i48.tinypic.com/34osg95.gif

You're probably right I'm sure. Just been so long since we've had a beneficial hydrologically significant rain like that, my optimism is waining.

[Ntxw]

You're probably right I'm sure. Just been so long since we've had a beneficial hydrologically significant rain like that, my optimism is waining.

I feel your pain, we've been donut holed here lately like horselatitudefarms mentioned. I'm just glad we're getting something and overall for the year most of us are doing well near average rainfall wise. I just remind myself what it was like this time last year and I end up being grateful for just sprinkles . Little bits goes a long way when you string them together

[vbhoutex]

You're probably right I'm sure. Just been so long since we've had a beneficial hydrologically significant rain like that, my optimism is waining.

I feel your pain, we've been donut holed here lately like horselatitudefarms mentioned. I'm just glad we're getting something and overall for the year most of us are doing well near average rainfall wise. I just remind myself what it was like this time last year and I end up being grateful for just sprinkles . Little bits goes a long way when you string them together

No kidding. After last year, when I smell rain I get excited and grateful!! Currently pouring here in W Houston and I am smiling big!!

[Shoshana]

about another .4" of rain since last post. Ground is soggy and squishy. We're on the side of a hill so what doesn't absorb runs downhill to the creek.

[Portastorm]

I think many of you will like this forecast from Larry Cosgrove, looking into October. I know one of you won't!

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-september-29-2012-at-7-40-p-m-ct-part-2

[weatherdude1108]

You're probably right I'm sure. Just been so long since we've had a beneficial hydrologically significant rain like that, my optimism is waining.

I feel your pain, we've been donut holed here lately like horselatitudefarms mentioned. I'm just glad we're getting something and overall for the year most of us are doing well near average rainfall wise. I just remind myself what it was like this time last year and I end up being grateful for just sprinkles . Little bits goes a long way when you string them together

No kidding. After last year, when I smell rain I get excited and grateful!! Currently pouring here in W Houston and I am smiling big!!

Yeah, I am definitely grateful for this year. Last year was an anomaly as far as I'm concerned! Torture! The subsoil is in so much better shape than last year and the lakes in central Texas are a few feet higher (much higher in Dallas area). Looking forward to a more wet and cold pattern!

[WacoWx]

Not quite the event we expected, especially for the south Texas area (8" isolated?), but appreciated rains. San Antonio may disagree. I really wanted to see the historical PWAT values to show their teeth. I haven't seen 2.2+ values before and I felt like the perfect storm (drought buster) was at our doorstep.

Just wanted to thank the NWS folks for their great write ups on the forecast discussions on the Dallas and Austin areas (the only ones I read). Theres no such thing as too descriptive, and I continue to learn more from others professional descriptions.

If youre reading this, thank you!

edit: I did get to see a few hours of good counterclockwise radar returns riding down I-20 earlier. Radarscope is a good radar app FYI iPhone. Subtract 20 degrees and give me my beard back and I woulda thought I was in Seattle today.

YOLO

[Terri]

Rancho del Thibodeaux ended up with 1.72 inches... Nothing to sneeze at. SO much better than last year. Instead of the smell of rain in the air, it was the smell of smoke. So, I'll take what we received Friday and Saturday all day long as opposed to packing fire preparation luggage.

[Ntxw]

Some final tallies, still ongoing in far east Texas, looks like most of us got 1-2 inches of refreshments. Not often does this happen statewide per any given system. Even most tropical systems only dumps in a certain corridor.