Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012

.AVIATION...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ON FRIDAY, SHRA/TSRA WILL AGAIN CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR/WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TSRA LIKELY IN THE VICINITY
OF KJMZ IN THE AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED VCTS THERE FRI AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME EAST 5-10 KT FRI EXCEPT WESTERLY AT KJMZ.
/GREGORIA

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE MOVING WEST
TONIGHT. IN ITS WAKE A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS EASTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH THE 12Z JSJ
SOUNDING INDICATING A PWAT IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE SOURCE AND A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO WITH
CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS EXPECTING PASSING
SHOWERS. REPORTED ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR INDICATE NEAR 4 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED NEAR GURABO AND VILLALBA WITH URBAN FLOOD
STATEMENTS ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS EARLIER.

THE RECENT GUIDANCE INDICATES A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF CONVECTION UNDER THIS FLOW
REGIME BEING THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INDICATED IN THE FORECAST WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. BY SUNDAY SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
REGION WITH A RIDGE BUILDING AT THE UPPER LEVELS..WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHING.

&&

.MARINE...

THE FORECAST FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS FOR SEAS RANGING FROM NEAR
3 TO 5 FEET TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE CARIBBEAN
WATERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND SEAS FROM 1 TO 3 FEET ARE FORECAST
THEN INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 89 / 30 30 0 50
STT 79 86 79 85 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE REGION...EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS DURING THE
WEEKEND. A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VARIABLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DOTED THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME.
SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LOW LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS/REFLECTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION
UNTIL AT LEAST SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...LOCAL EFFECTS AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL
VENTILATION...WILL INDUCE A FEW MORE DAYS OF FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PART OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.

AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH SOME DRIER...MORE STABLE AND "WARMER" AIR MASS GENERALLY
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER QUICK
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE L/LVL ESE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TIL 28/15Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJPS FM TIME TO TIME. AFTN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND
NORTH WESTERN PR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCR AND PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 28/17 AND 28/21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 30 0 50 0
STT 86 79 85 79 / 30 30 30 20

[HurricaneFan]

Is that a Tropical Wave flaring up a lot to the ESE of the Windward Islands?
Is it expected to reach the NE Caribbean?If so,at what time?
I didn't see the forecast mention it yet.

[cycloneye]

Is that a Tropical Wave flaring up a lot to the ESE of the Windward Islands?
Is it expected to reach the NE Caribbean?If so,at what time?
I didn't see the forecast mention it yet.

Is all related to a Surface Trough that is north of ITCZ. 2 PM discussion.


...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SENEGAL AT 13N16W CONTINUING SE ALONG 9N25W 7N36W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 7N36W ALONG 7N49W 7N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN
15W-26W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 27W-29W. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 17N46W TO
10N48W. THE TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE WEST. THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 7N-18N BETWEEN 43W-51W.

[Macrocane]

Latest HPC Tropical Discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
210 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2012

AT 15 UTC TROPICAL STORM NORMAN CENTERED NEAR 22.8N 108.6W...WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40KT.
IT IS MOVING NORTH AT 14KT. SEE NHC BULLETIN FOR DETAILS.

DISCUSSION FROM SEP 27/00 UTC: A BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS MEXICO TO THE SOUTHERN USA...WHILE CENTERING ON A CLOSED
HIGH NEAR JALISCO/COLIMA IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS TO HOLD
THROUGH 54-60 HRS...THEN START TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH AS A POTENT
POLAR TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH. AT 500 HPA...A HIGH OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO IS FAVORING SUBSIDENCE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE BASIN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS HIGH WILL
ALSO ERODE AS POLAR TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE
POLAR TROUGHS ENTERS IN THE BASIN...IT WILL SUSTAIN A POLAR FRONT
THAT WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
INITIALLY...IT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER RIDGE AND OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM NORMAN (SEE BELOW) TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY ACROSS COAHUILA AND NORTHWESTERN NUEVO LEON. BY 36-60
HRS HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL
TAMAULIPAS/NORTHWESTERN VERACRUZ/SAN LUIS POTOSI AND REACHING
SIMILAR AMOUNTS. BY 60-84 HRS...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL AFFECT
VERACRUZ AND CHIAPAS PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING AT
35-70MM/DAY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED ACROSS SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND THE EJE VOLCANICO ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED UPPER
DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF POLAR TROUGH. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

ACROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE BROAD MID/UPPER RIDGE IS STEERING
RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NORMAN (SEE THE NHC FOR DETAILS).
THIS SYSTEM HAS GOOD VENTILATION AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SINALOA DURING THE DAY TODAY. DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE
SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL WILL LEAD TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY ACROSS MOST OF SINALOA AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN SONORA THROUGH 36 HRS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE AFTERWARDS.

MID/UPPER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS YUCATAN/WESTERN CUBA INTO CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS DEVELOPING A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODELS SHOW BROAD YET WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER IN THE CYCLE.
IN THE MEAN TIME...BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...

MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
NORTHWARD ACROSS JAMAICA/HISPANIOLA/EASTERN CUBA. FURTHERMORE...
INFLOW OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION FURTHERMORE.
INITIALLY...STRONGEST CONVECTION WILL AFFECT JAMAICA/WESTERN CUBA
PRODUCING LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...EXPECTING LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY DURING THE
SAME PERIOD. BEST DYNAMIC FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED
BY 36-84 HRS. DURING THIS PERIOD...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS TO
SURGE TO 20-40MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY ACROSS
JAMAICA AND WESTERN CUBA. EXPECTING 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY ACROSS HISPANIOLA BY 36-60 HRS...DECREASING SLIGHTLY
AFTERWARDS AS BEST FORCING MOVES WESTWARD. ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS...ALSO EXPECTING HEAVY CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS
OF IN THE ORDER OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY
INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING
AT 20-35MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS.

THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AS SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ESTABLISHES AND DRIER AIR MASS IS ADVECTED FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE DURING THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/LEEWARD ISLANDS. ACROSS PUERTO RICO...EXPECTING
LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. MUCH MORE QUIET CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS WITH ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION DOMINATING.
FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS VENEZUELA...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY IN THE LLANOS REGION. TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
GUYANAS...EXPECTING GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN. SOME ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY 60-84 HRS AS WAVE ARRIVES IN FROM THE EAST...WHICH
WILL PRODUCED LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
GUYANA/NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN NORTHWEST TIER.
EXPECTING MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS OF 25-50MM/DAY. AMOUNTS WILL PEAK
ACROSS THE CHOCO AND NORTHWESTERN CAUCA BY 36-60 HRS LEADING TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 30-60MM/DAY. ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...CONVECTION
WILL PEAK LATER IN THE CYCLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF
60-60MM/DAY ACROSS NICARAGUA BY 36-60 HRS...AND EXTENDING ACROSS
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BY 60-84 HRS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
33W 36W 38W 40W 42W 44W 46W TW
60W 62W 64W DSIPT TUTT INDCD
78W 81W 83W 85W 86W DSIPT TW
91W 94W 97W 99W DSIPT EW

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 33W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N.
THIS WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH RETROGRESSING TUTT TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUYANA BY 60-84 HRS
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.

A TUTT-INDUCED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES EXTENDS ALONG
60W TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY LOSE
DEFINITION AS IT IS EMBEDDED NOW IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
PATTERN. STILL...IT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
LEEWARD ISLES TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W AND SOUTH OF 21N SUSTAINING SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS JAMAICA-EASTERN CUBA-THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE
WAVE IS FORECAST TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND
INTERACTS WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY TUTT ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...AND A DEVELOPING BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN/GULF OF HONDURAS. STILL...IT WILL ENHANCE
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CUBA/JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EARLY IN
THE CYCLE...AND ACROSS NICARAGUA/HONDURAS (SEE ABOVE FOR AMOUNTS).

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 91W AND SOUTH OF 16N IS MOVING TOWARDS A
MORE FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND CONDUCIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION.
THIS WAVE IS ALSO FORECAST TO LOSE DEFINITION...YET...IT WILL
ENHANCE ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS
PEAKING AT LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.

CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
319 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL MOVE WEST NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO
RICO WITH OVER THREE INCHES PER HOUR REPORTED IN THE MUNICIPALITY
OF LARES. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET.

THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING
HOURS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS
EXPECTED. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
LOCALLY...MID NEXT WEEK. IN THE LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO WILL AFFECT THE AREAS AROUND TJBQ...THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AT THE SURFACE. SHRA/TSRA ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR....NORTHERN...AND NORTHWESTERN PR.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 90 79 90 / 0 50 0 20
STT 78 88 79 89 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

To let you know that many quakes have been occuring North of PR/USVI/BVI. See the details at the Caribbean seismic activity thread in the Geology forum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2277909#p2277909

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTED
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE WEST WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A RELATIVELY
UNSTABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT
LEAST SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS...WITH FEW OF THEM AFFECTING THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
WAS OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WHILE FILLING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. A RELATIVELY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
TRANSPORT PATCHES OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FROM TIME TO
TIME FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST
LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION...WILL INDUCE A FAIRLY
ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
COASTAL AREAS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER QUICK
PASSING -SHRA/SHRA EMBEDDED IN THE L/LVL ESE FLOW WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS TIL 29/15Z. THESE SHOWERS WILL
BRIEFLY AFFECT TIST...TISX AND TJPS FM TIME TO TIME. AFTN
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS CENTRAL...NORTHERN AND
NORTH WESTERN PR. AS A RESULT...EXPECT MTN TOP OBSCR AND PERIODS
OF MVFR/IFR NEAR TJMZ AND TJBQ BTW 29/17 AND 29/21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 90 78 / 50 0 20 10
STT 88 79 89 78 / 30 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

I don't know how is the situation is in the others islands... but for sure be aware because of JELLYFISH are back in the butterfly island and maybe for a long time (given the article see below) as water temp are pretty hot for this month of September! Hey Cycloneye, how about PR?


GOSIER

Jellyfish are well parties to stay

Emmanuel BLUMSTEIN France-Antilles Guadeloupe 29.09.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 188310.php

Less present on the edge of the beach, the Medusa rubs to bathers and surfers who take a short distance. Caution! (E.B.)

Jellyfish are found on the coast of the South Grand-Terre. They return each year, but the exceptional heat of this month of September prompt them to extend their stay. Caution!

It could not escape downriver along the gosierien coast swimmers: jellyfish, relatively discreet during the summer holidays, play extra time. Swimmers used to reach the islet of Gosier swimming must, like skiers, avoid obstacles otherwise come in contact with the most stinging filaments, at worst, that can cause worrisome reactions.

STRESSED JELLYFISH

This month of September, the jellyfish squat the coastline. For a simple reason: they feel well. "It's hot, it rains regularly, there are few tropical storms so the little choppy waters. The addition of these factors therefore promotes the explosion of jellyfish larvae, explains Alain Calais, animal trainer at the Aquarium of Guadeloupe. It is a great course: larvae, that stack like dishes on the depths, await a heat shock to break free. »

Because jellyfish are very sensitive to changes, generating stress: ' jellyfish know stress: like all human beings live, when conditions change and are bad, automatically they reproduce to survive. '. Add to this that the now-placid sea is an extraordinary incubator for these beings fragile living the swell can implement parts. Should be done as far the hunt for jellyfish? "The Medusa is a predatory, and humans perceive as a nuisance." But it has its role to play in the nature in the same way as all animals, and serves as food for some of them. "Because the jellyfish is also his predatory, the turtle, which in rafole. Nature is done well!


-Qui s'y frotte s'y pique

Need to distinguish between different types of jellyfish that frequent the coast. The most visible, often even from the surface of the water, theAurelia aurita, very common. If it is cooked in Asia, here, it causes rather little movements of panic when she ventured on the edges of very frequented beaches of South Grand-Terre.

The Aurelia aurita is recognizable by its prominent, and rugged, 'Hat' also called Corolla or umbrella. With stinging cells, it can assault release thousands of small harpoons. "These harpoons are placed in these cells and inject poison against the aggressor", explains Alain Calais, the WaSP by sea, often referred to as the burning, it flows from the mangrove: "In case of heavy rains, as the temperature of the water and the salinity decreases, the jellyfish leave its environment to reach the sea."

Finally, the most poisonous, the physalie is not a jellyfish because it belongs to the family of the siphonophora. His purple body floats to the surface, and not below. The contact with objects with its filaments, which can reach 10 metres, is extremely painful and can leave traces several days on the skin.


-What if I bite?

Each year, the same notes are repeated, but a bite of callback is not evil, it. In the event of prolonged contact, the best rest of rub burns with of hot sand, so as to remove the harpoons, provided that there is no scar. Then apply the scald cream. Rub with lemon can also be very effective. Grandmother's recipe, namely sprinkling the bite with urine, would be more random.

On the other hand, vinegar would be very effective to explode cells clinging to the skin. Best yet is to prevent any risk while swimming with a thick lycra covering the entire torso and forearms.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion of Surface Trough East of Windward Islands.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N16W CONTINUING OVER ATLC WATERS ALONG 9N21W
9N34W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM 9N34W ALONG 9N40W 8N50W 9N57W.
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 14N52W TO
10N53W. THIS TROUGH MORE OUTLINES AN AREA OF WIND SPEED
CONVERGENCE WITH STRONGER WINDS TO THE EAST AND WEAKER WINDS TO
THE WEST. THE TROUGH IS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG
52W. THIS COMBINATION IS HELPING PRODUCE SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

[cycloneye]

Warmest September on record and second driest September on record in Puerto Rico

Gusty,here is the answer to your question.

CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

[Gustywind]

Warmest September on record and second driest September on record in Puerto Rico

Gusty,here is the answer to your question.

CLIMATE...SEP 2012 AT THE SJU LMM INTL ARPT WILL END AS THE WARMEST
SEP ON RECORD. SEP 2012 HAS NOW MOVED SOLELY INTO FIRST PLACE AND
TEMPS IN THE MID 90S TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TOMORROW WILL ONLY HELP
IN MOVING FURTHER APART FROM SEP 1995. IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEP
2012 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE SECOND DRIEST SEP ON RECORD WITH A
TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR. THE THIRD DRIEST SEP ON
RECORD IS 1987 WITH 1.73 INCHES AND FOURTH IS 2006 WITH 1.78
INCHES. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE TO PICKUP ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN BEFORE THE MONTH ENDS WHICH COULD ALTER THE CURRENT RANKS BUT
IT CAN BE SAID WITH DEFINITE CERTAINTY THAT SEP WILL END IN THE
TOP FIVE DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD.

Thanks for the answer

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, usually i swim in this period, but this year and especially in September, i 'd prefered cancel my routines because of the impressive amounts of jellyfishes in Guadeloupe especially le Gosier !

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
245 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND A TROUGH
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WAS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST PART OF PUERTO RICO. AS 2 PM...MOST OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FEET
PER LATEST 12Z TJSJ SOUNDING...IS PROMOTING THIS HOT TEMPERATURES
MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY...BEFORE A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFT WEST...AND A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND FLOW ESTABLISH OVER THE REGION.

IN TERM OF CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE LOCAL AREA...A DRIER
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE REGION TOMORROW...LIMITING
EVEN MORE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION. FOR
TUESDAY...THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BRING BETTER MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE REGION...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
LONG TERM...AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS WITH NO WX. WINDS MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SEP 2012 WILL END AS THE WARMEST AND ONE OF THE
DRIEST SEPTEMBERS ON RECORD FOR A LOT OF PLACES ACROSS THE ISLAND.
FUELS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST HAVE DRIED OUT SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 30 DAYS AND MIGHT SUPPORT FIRE. RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WHILE MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ERODES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL DROP TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH ARE BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
THE LOW MOISTURE CONTENT WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH VALUES. WINDS
WILL BE THE SOUTHEAST AT 15MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE MON AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND TEMPS DROP A FEW DEGS AS
WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 91 79 89 / 0 20 10 20
STT 83 90 79 90 / 10 20 10 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.UPDATE...TJSJ EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. IN CONTRAST...RADAR
DOPPLER ONLY DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. FOR
TOMORROW...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHARP DECREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 30/12Z. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO. ASIDE FROM THOSE MINOR CHANGES...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

Off Topic=Gusty,dont forget to stop by the 2012-2013 NBA season thread at the Sports forum as I know that you are a big fan of the NBA and the upcomming season is only a month away from the start.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=113121&hilit=&p=2278080#p2278080

[Macrocane]

The temperatures in Central America on September 28, 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala. Near normal in Honduras and Nicaragua. Cooler than normal in Belize, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 23.0°C (73.4°F) Coolest since July 21
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 6.3°C (43.3°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.5°C (74.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.2°C (64.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.0°C (53.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.2°C (70.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F) Coldest since June 25
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

-Warmer than normal in Guatemala, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Near normal in Belize, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama.

Belize city, Belize 31.0°C (87.8°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 29.9°C (85.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34.0°C (93.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 29.6°C (85.3°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.5°C (72.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 34°C (93°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.5°C (83.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.1°C (59.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.9°C (78.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
506 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIP FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...THEN RETROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LOCAL REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FURTHER EAST
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS NEAR 37 WEST IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND SHOULD
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPRESS ANY SIGNIFICANT OR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER
STILL EXPECT LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO HELP TRIGGER SOME SHORT
LIVED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNDER THE CURRENT
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES AND HOT CONDITIONS
WILL DOMINATE ELSEWHERE INCLUDING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AS THE
ATLANTIC HIGH REESTABLISHES ITSELF NORTH OF THE AREA...LOCAL WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
OF SO WITH A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
LATEST GFS MODEL GUIDANCE INITIATED WELL AND CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TO HOLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.
UNTIL THEN EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOCAL AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH ONLY A FEW EARLY MORNING PASSING
PASSING SHOWERS IN SOME COASTAL AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME. NO SIGNIFICANT
OR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN SIGHT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IN AND AROUND TIST/TISX. AFT 30/17Z...SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS NW PR...RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AT TJBQ THROUGH
ABOUT 30/21Z. WINDS MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 10-15 KT.

&&

CLIMATE...SEPTEMBER 2012 AT THE SJU LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT WILL END AS THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD. SEPTEMBER 2012 HAS NOW
MOVED INTO FIRST PLACE WITH AN AVG TEMP OF 85 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT
SO FAR. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
IN THE LOW 90S WHICH COULD CHALLENGE TODAYS RECORD OF 94 DEGREES. IN
TERMS OF RAINFALL...SEPTEMBER 2012 WILL END AS AS THE SECOND DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH A TOTAL OF 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.

AT THE CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT IN ST. THOMAS...SEPTEMBER 2012 CURRENTLY RANKS
AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES OF RAIN. THE SECOND
DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS IN 1986 WITH 1.08 INCHES AND THIRD WAS 1987
WITH 1.42 INCHES. VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAIN IF ANY IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 10 10 10 20
STT 89 80 89 80 / 20 20 20 30

[Gustywind]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1003 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012

.UPDATE...TJSJ EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A FAIRLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. IN CONTRAST...RADAR
DOPPLER ONLY DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...NEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS
MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI. FOR
TOMORROW...ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHARP DECREASE
IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW MORNING. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO DECREASE NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY 30/12Z. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PUERTO
RICO. ASIDE FROM THOSE MINOR CHANGES...NO OTHER ADJUSTMENTS HAVE
BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS.

Off Topic=Gusty,dont forget to stop by the 2012-2013 NBA season thread at the Sports forum as I know that you are a big fan of the NBA and the upcomming season is only a month away from the start.

viewtopic.php?f=17&t=113121&hilit=&p=2278080#p2278080

You're right i'm a big fan and this season should provide us many surprises in store for sure. I will go on the season thread, don't worry about that

[cycloneye]

Here are the Tropical Waves that are out there in Caribbean and East of the Lesser Antilles.8 AM discussion.

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES EXTENDS FROM 15N21W TO A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 9N25W EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOONAL GYRE AND DEEP MOISTURE
NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING
FROM 19N37W TO 10N40W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM 24N79W TO 17N83W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS OVER
THE WAVE DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE E OF THE WAVE AXIS N
OF 16N BETWEEN 78W-81W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF CUBA. THE UPPER
LOW SEEMS TO BE TAKING A MORE SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN CONTROLLING
THE TILT AND PATH OF THE WAVE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS WAVE
WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DURING THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS
FORMED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.