ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Yep that does appear so it cooled. I'm not sure how that is when the colder SST's are gone from the daily's but it is what it is. I still like how it looks at the sub-surface however.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/1/12 update

Nino 3.4 cools down again, this time to +0.2C. That is down from +0.3C that was at last week's update. The October CPC update will be released on the 4th and we will see if El Nino is declared officially or not.But I suspect that they will wait another month to see how things evolve.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

A little update from the latest sub-surface. The recent expansion of the western warm pool is showing 2c anomalies now, the 1.5c anomalies are 75 meters from breaking the surface between 160E and 180.

[South Texas Storms]

Do you still think this Nino event will peak at moderate strength? I'm beginning to doubt that it will.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Do you still think this Nino event will peak at moderate strength? I'm beginning to doubt that it will.

SSTs in region 3.4 peaked in August and are going down. This event doesn't even qualify as El Nino as it requires SST anomalies of +0.5C for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/C ... o34Mon.gif

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

Do you still think this Nino event will peak at moderate strength? I'm beginning to doubt that it will.

It's what I thought would happen using analogs, I feel I should still stick with it. If it turns out wrong it will be a good learning curve on the why vs the results

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

Do you still think this Nino event will peak at moderate strength? I'm beginning to doubt that it will.

It's what I thought would happen using analogs, I feel I should still stick with it. If it turns out wrong it will be a good learning curve on the why vs the results

Do the current sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific look good for warming in the near future?

[euro6208]

a westerly wind burst has occured in the western pacific...will this help this unofficial el nino to strengthen?

A combination of factors, including an atmospheric Kelvin wave and perhaps somewhat better coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere with respect to ENSO have resulted in a westerly wind burst across the western Pacific.

[Ntxw]

Do the current sub-surface temperatures in the Pacific look good for warming in the near future?

It's plenty warm 1-2c anomalies. Missing ingredient is a major oceanic Kelvin wave to push it. As euro just mentioned it's trying out west while the east is showing anomalous easterlies. MJO has been circling between weak and phase 6. It is projected to progress but models are not very reliable regarding the matter.

[NDG]

This is neutral as it can be at Nino 3.4

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah it is right now. But look at the warm waters building to the west and like Ntxw says, the subsurface temperatures tell a different story.

[cycloneye]

October CPC Update=Borderline ENSO Neutral/Weak El Nino are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere Winter 2012-2013

Ok folks,digest this update and analize it

Synopsis: Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, possibly strengthening during the next few months.

During September 2012, the trend towards El Niño slowed in several key oceanic and atmospheric indicators. However, the Pacific basin reflects borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remained elevated across the Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1), although anomalies decreased during the month as indicated by weekly index values in the Niño regions (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened (Fig. 3), but continued to show large regions of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Interestingly, low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean (Fig. 5), which may portend possible strengthening of the subsurface anomalies in the coming months. Despite these winds, the atmosphere was still largely ENSO-neutral, as reflected by the Southern Oscillation index and near-average upper-level and lower-level winds across much of the Pacific. Tropical convection increased near the Date Line, which is consistent with weak El Niño conditions, but also remained elevated over eastern Indonesia, which is further westward than expected (Fig. 6). Thus, the atmosphere and ocean indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.

Compared to the past few months, the chance is reduced for El Niño to develop during Northern Hemisphere fall/winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak (Fig. 7). The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[Ntxw]

The anomaly map also shows the PDO rising even more. This is important for winter forecasters who were thinking a very -PDO was going to remain. Baja and SoCal warm waters very nearing the bridge with a patch of cold to cover.

Edit: Thanks Cycloneye for the update from the CPC. It's so strange that they finally accept Neutral-Borderline weak Nino conditions now that they have seen some cooling. Before with warmer waters it was solid Neutral .

SSTs

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[NDG]

I keep saying that the chances of a moderate El Nino developing is almost nonexistent at this point, IMO.
It just does not add up.

Edit: Even the subsurface temps are not as warm as they were a few months ago with a cold spot underneath the surface of Nino 3.4

[dexterlabio]

We're at the last quarter of the year and El Nino is now quite far from being with us. So ENSO this year could end up like in 2008, from La Nina to warm neutral, am I right?

Maybe El Nino isn't supposed to appear soon but the next year. Mixed signals continue and indicators are not consistently showing a trend towards El Nino.

[Ntxw]

It's trying, it's fighting, will it get there?

One week ago


Today


One week ago


Today


East vs the west, PDO vs EPO, good vs evil...errr maybe not that lol

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of the latest CPC October update.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... comment_72

The progression of oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific towards El Niño has been interrupted by a marked cooling over the past two weeks, and the onset of a full-fledged El Niño event this fall and winter is now in considerable doubt. Sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific were approximately 0.5°C above average--the threshold for a weak El Niño event--from the beginning of July through mid-September. However, for the past two weeks, these temperatures have fallen to just 0.2°C above average--solidly in the neutral category. In addition, over the past three months, winds, pressures, and cloud cover over the Pacific have not responded in the fashion typically associated with an El Niño (one exception: some stronger westerly surface winds than usual have developed near New Guinea and Indonesia, which could act to push warm water eastwards towards South America in coming months and tip the ocean more towards El Niño.) NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classified conditions as being neutral in their monthly El Niño discussion, issued October 4, but continued their El Niño watch, giving a 55% chance that an El Niño event will be in place for the October-November-December period. This is a big reduction from 69% odds given in their September forecast. NOAA's final take on the matter:

Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Niño, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak. The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

The lack of a progression towards El Niño so far this October means that the Atlantic hurricane season is likely to extend into November, as has been the norm over the past decade. El Niño events tend to increase wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, suppressing hurricane activity. However, the latest 2-week wind shear forecast from the GFS model shows continued near-average wind shear levels over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic through mid-October. Given the recent faltering of El Niño, I expect that near-average wind shear levels will continue over the tropical Atlantic into November, and that we will see one or two more tropical storms in the Atlantic this hurricane season.




Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average between October 2011 and October 2012 in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific between 5°S - 5°N, 170°W - 120°W (the Niño 3.4 region.) A La Niña episode occurs when SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region are 0.5°C cooler than average for an extended period (below the thick blue line.) La Niña conditions were in place between October 2011 - March 2012. El Niño conditions occur when SSTs in the El Niño 3.4 region are more than 0.5°C warmer than average (above the thick red line.) El Niño conditions developed in early July, but have fallen below the threshold for a weak El Niño event over the past two weeks

[ozonepete]

So this event is not and won't be a significant El Nino for the next few months. So outside of no significant contribution to shear for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season, it will have minimal atmospheric consequences that could cause significantly unusual weather over the U.S. this winter. At least that's the way past history of these events indicates. That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

[cycloneye]

There will be a new update by CPC on Tuesday of how is ENSO doing and especially Nino 3.4. I suspect after looking at the different graphics of the subsurface,no warming took place in the past 7 days,but we will see what CPC has.

[LarryWx]

That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

Some weak El Nino winters have been very cold in the E US: examples 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Very cold weak El Ninos are most favored if there is also a -NAO and +PDO in DJF. The -PDO is quite stubborn right now and odds favor it staying negative into winter. But that could still change. The NAO for winter is still anyone's guess. I guess there's now some doubt whether or not we'll get back into weak El Nino territory. I'm thinking yes but we'll have to see.