Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion of the two Tropical Waves that are located East of the Lesser Antilles.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
18N24W TO 10N27W. THE WAVE IS FINALLY GAINING SOME WESTWARD
MOTION AT NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF MOISTURE COVERING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC. MAXIMUM MOISTURE
VALUES ARE NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE AND BROAD AS THE WAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS EXPLAINS THE LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
21W-27W...FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN
27W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N38W TO 10N43W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. IT
LIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 35W-41W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 41W-44W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
342 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE LOCALLY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MID TO MAINLY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL DIG BACK TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARD AND INTO THE
LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME
FRAME...AND MAY RETROGRESS FURTHER INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DESPITE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...STILL EXPECT ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO INTERACT
WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...SOMEWHAT
DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE INDICATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJBQ AND THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ AND TJSJ UNTIL 30/22Z. THEREAFTER...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE LOCAL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHRA/TSRA ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 79 89 / 10 20 20 20
STT 80 89 80 89 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

We have invest 96L in the Eastern Atlantic. You can find all the information about it at the 96L thread.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113797&p=2278207#p2278207

8 PM Discussion of Wave in Central Atlantic.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N40W
TO 10N44W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
425 AM AST MON OCT 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH TODAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED AND DIP FURTHER
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TUESDAY...THEN RETROGRESS
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WEDNESDAY AND LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH THEN END OF THE WEEK BEFORE FILLING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SPREAD FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AN EASTERLY
PERTURBATION/TUTT INDUCED JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST... A TROPICAL WAVE
WITH AXIS NOW NEAR 44 WEST IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLANDS AGAIN
TODAY. HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED INTEGRATED
PRECIPITABLE WATER AS WELL AS WEATHER RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE PERIODS OF EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION EACH
DAY.

WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED APPROACHING
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO REGION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL SAG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE PREVAILING EASTERLIES WILL THEN TRANSPORT
THIS ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH LOCAL
AND DIURNAL EFFECTS WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER DAYTIME CONVECTION
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS .

THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK... AS A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT HOT AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EACH DAY WITH PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
IN ISOLATED SPOTS DURING THE AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND TOO A LESSER DEGREE
OVER PARTS OF THE CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK TROF JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SPREAD
SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TNCM AND TKPK TIL 01/22Z WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD ACROSS TIST AND TISX AFT 01/16Z WITH BRIEF
MVFR PSBL AND MOV ONSHORE IN ERN PR AFT 02/00Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DEVELOP IN WRN PR AFT 01/17Z WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR AT
TJMZ. LLVL WINDS BCMG EAST 5 TO 15 KT WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ALONG THE COASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...AT THE SAN JUAN AREA...SEPTEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE
SIXTH DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 2.13 INCHES. THE DRIEST
SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WAS SEPTEMBER 1940 WITH 1.49 INCHES. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES...SEPTEMBER 2012 ENDED AS THE WARMEST SEPTEMBER
ON RECORD WITH AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 84.9 DEGREES...TYING
SEPTEMBER 1995. AT CYRIL E. KING AIRPORT/SAINT THOMAS...SEPTEMBER
2012 ENDED AS THE DRIEST SEPTEMBER ON RECORD WITH 0.92 INCHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 88 79 / 20 60 50 50
STT 88 80 89 79 / 30 60 50 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion of Central Atlantic wave west of Invest 96L.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion of Central Atlantic Wave located west of Invest 96L.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
19N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N
BETWEEN 47W AND 48W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
326 PM AST MON OCT 1 2012

SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON...FIRST...OVER THE SOUTH SECTION OF PUERTO RICO IN
THE VICINITY OF PONCE...AND LATER OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ENHANCE BY
THE COMBINATION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS WITH SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATED NEAR
SUNSET TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WHICH IS AFFECTING THE
LOCAL REGION IS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...LATEST COMPUTER
GUIDANCE INDICATE A SLOT OF DRY AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 1.10 INCHES AND THETA-E VALUES AT 700MB AT 315K.
IF THIS VERIFIES...WEDNESDAY MOST PROBABLY WILL BE THE DRIEST DAY
OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO.

THE EAST WIND FLOW WHICH IS PREVAILING AT THIS TIME...IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE
THESE SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THURSDAY AND POSSIBLE FRIDAY. IN THE
LONG TERM...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TRJMZ..AND
TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 01/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 78 89 / 60 30 20 20
STT 80 89 79 90 / 60 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion of Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic that is west of Invest 96L.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N46W TO 7N49W MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE
WAVE IS ALSO APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH MAY BE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN
45W-51W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER AND MID LEVELS...A LOW REMAINS EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA IS FORCED
BACK OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES BY A VERY LARGE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE CENTRAL NORTHEAST ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS
LOW AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS...BUT THEY RESUME BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE REGAINS CONTROL OF THE MID ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR IS PEPPERED WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE BROKEN THROUGH THE 50 KFT
LEVEL. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY EAST AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD
OF PUERTO RICO HAS SEEN SOME RAIN...WITH AT LEAST ONE HALF INCH
SEEN IN NAGUABO SINCE MIDNIGHT. MAJOR MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OR THE INTENSITY OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR
THAT IS CLEARLY SEEN IN THE MIMIC PRODUCT NOSING IN FROM THE
EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AND THE MODELS DO
REFLECT A DECREASE IN 1000-850 MB THICKNESS LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. INTERESTINGLY...HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE NAM5 BRINGS IN
MUCH DRIER AIR...IT ALSO IS THE MOST BULLISH ON THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOCAL AREA SHOWING MANY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. HAVE TEMPERED THE PREVIOUS VERY DRY FORECAST FOR THAT
PERIOD WITH THIS MODEL IN LIGHT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY AND UPSTREAM
MOISTURE VISIBLE IN SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY...BUT KEPT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING RELATIVELY DRY TO ACCOMMODATE THE
BRIEF DECREASE IN MOISTURE. MOISTURE AND SHOWERS RETURN THURSDAY.

THE MAIN EFFECT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO BE TO SUPPRESS
THE APPROACHING WAVES FROM THE EAST. WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO RETREAT FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY MORNING AND A
WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH MIGRATES WEST AND TILTS NORTH-SOUTH OVER
THE MONA CHANNEL...FLOW AT THE SURFACE BECOMES QUITE SOUTHERLY AND SHOWERS
SHOULD AGAIN EBB ON THE NORTH COAST. BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWER 90S
FOR THE NORTH COAST...AND MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE ISLANDS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST.

THE CURRENT GFS FROM 02/00Z HAS THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE
ATLANTIC...NOW APPROACHING 40 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...RE-CURVING
ON WEDNESDAY AND JOINING ON FRIDAY THE MASSIVE LOW THAT MOVES
INTO THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE USVI/BVI
TERMINALS AS WELL AS TJSJ. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR...AFFECTING TJMZ AND POSSIBLY
THE VICINITY OF TJBQ..TJPS...AND TJSJ. INCREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WIND IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AFTER 02/13Z...MAINLY EASTERLY WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SOME SWELL FROM TROPICAL STORM
NADINE MAINTAIN 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS IN OPEN WATERS AROUND THE ISLANDS
TROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 78 / 50 50 20 50
STT 89 79 89 79 / 60 30 20 50

[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion of Tropical Wave located East of Lesser Antilles.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

[cycloneye]

2 PM discussion of Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N49W TO 14N52W TO
9N52W MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST TUE OCT 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE LOCAL AREA LIES BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLANTIC AND TUTT LOW NEAR 26N 50W. THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN BETWEEN OF THESE FEATURES IS INDUCING COOL AIR ADVECTION
AND GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. SUBTROPICAL
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SPLIT AND MOVES
NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 96L LOCATED NEAR 38W IS FORECAST TO RE-CURVE STARTING
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN MOVING MAINLY WEST AT 15-20KT. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE BLENDED PWAT ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR HAVE BEEN DETECTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO FUEL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PR AND USVI THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
AS A RESULT...NEW CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FORECAST AREA THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN TYPE FLOODING HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM MARICAO TO MAYAGUEZ AS
HEAVIEST BURSTS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE INDUCED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE LOCAL AREA. A TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS...
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST
SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON. SOME ENHANCEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TUTT
DIGS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

LATEST GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE (INVEST 96L) IN
THE ATLANTIC WILL RE-CURVE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND
JOINING ON FRIDAY THE DEEP POLAR LOW THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST
ATLANTIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS
OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS. AS A RESULT...MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 02/21Z. ELSEWHERE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS...
EXCEPT ACROSS TJBQ WHERE VCTS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND SOME NE SWELLS FROM TROPICAL
STORM NADINE AND TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96L MAINTAIN 5 TO 6 FOOT
SEAS IN OPEN WATERS AROUND THE ISLANDS TROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 78 89 / 40 40 20 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 20 20

[Macrocane]

Today's HPC tropical discussion:

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 02/00 UTC: MEXICO CONTINUES UNDER INFLUENCE OF
STRONG POLAR TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM AT LOW-LEVELS.
THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO SLOWLY START LIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 60-72 HRS. AS THE TROUGH LIFTS...A RIDGE WILL
BUILD TO ITS SOUTHWEST. DEEP-LAYER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW HAS DRIED
MOST OF MEXICO EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN STATES AND THE YUCATAN.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS STATIONARY AND WEAKENING ACROSS
NORTHWEST YUCATAN INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. TUTT ACROSS THE YUCATAN IS DRIFTING
NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST. IN THE MEANTIME...TUTT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
VENTILATION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA TO SUSTAIN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY.
FURTHERMORE...REGION OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH 60-72 HRS ACROSS
THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING THROUGH
36 HRS IN THE ORDER OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY.
THESE ARE TO DECREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY BY
36-60 HRS...AND TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST ACTIVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS GUATEMALA
AFFECTED BY ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF A JET FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND VENTILATION FROM A TUTT LIFTING TO ITS
NORTH. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
50-100MM/DAY...RAPIDLY DECREASING TO MAXIMA 15-25MM/DAY BY 30-60
HRS. AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED ACROSS CARIBBEAN PLAINS AS REGION OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVES IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH 36
HRS. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE TRANSPORT LATER IN THE
CYCLE TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA...EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TO PEAK BY 60-84
HRS WHEN EASTERLY WAVE ARRIVES. FURTHERMORE...ORGANIZING TUTT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL INTERACT WITH ORGANIZING PANAMA
LOW AND CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS
BY LATE CYCLE. EXPECTING A SURGE IN CONVECTION BY 60-84 HRS TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

ACROSS WESTERN CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS/NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...DEEP
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TODAY TO RAPIDLY
DECREASE AFTER 36-48 HRS. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COUPLED
WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE EAST OF POLAR TROUGH WITH
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA REACHING 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DECREASE AFTERWARDS.

TO THE EAST...AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH DEEPENING TUTT
TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY.
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS. BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC FORCING WILL
DECREASE AFTERWARDS LEADING TO A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION. ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/USVI...EXPECTING MOST ACTIVE TODAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF
PASSING EASTERLY WAVE/COLD AIR ADVECTION AT UPPER LEVELS AND WEAK
TUTT ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. CONVECTION WILL
RAPIDLY DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING.

AN TUTT-INDUCED WAVE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLES AND WILL LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM/DAY THROUGH 24-36 HRS. EXPECTING A DECREASE AFTER THIS
PERIOD WITH A NEW INCREASE BY 60-84 HRS...AS A TROPICAL WAVE
ARRIVES FROM THE EAST.EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY WITH THIS WAVE.

ACROSS COLOMBIA...ACTIVE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION ONLY IN NORTHERN
VALLEYS EARLY IN THE CYCLE WILL EVOLVE INTO A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN
IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS PANAMA LOW INTENSIFIES.
MODELS AGREE IN WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS PACIFIC BASIN ENHANCING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL PEAK BY 60-84 HRS
LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM/DAY
ACROSS THE CHOCO AND PARTS OF THE CAUCA VALLEY. TO THE EAST ACROSS
VENEZUELA...MOST ACTIVE WILL PERSIST ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE AND A TROPICAL WAVE
ARRIVING BY LATE CYCLE. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS...AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
54W 56W 60W 63W 66W 69W 72W TW
61W 64W 67W 71W 75W 78W 81W TUTT INDCD
68W 71W 74W 77W 79W 82W 85W EW
92W 94W 96W 98W 101W 103W 105W TUTT INDCD

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 54W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N.
THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. ACROSS THE WINDWARDS IT WILL PRODUCE
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY AND ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
GUYANA MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY.

A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE HAS FORMED AT 61W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.
THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS THE
ANTILLES...IT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA IT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

AN EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 68W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.
THIS WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS PUERTO RICO
TODAY...LEADING TO MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS HISPANIOLA...THE
WAVE WILL PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/BELIZE IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA...IT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 92W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 11N.
THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN
GUATEMALA...IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT ALOFT AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE
OF BREEZES IT WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA 50-100MM/DAY.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion of Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles that is west of Invest 96L.


TROPICAL WAVE IS W OF THE SURFACE LOW ABOVE EXTENDING FROM
18N51W ALONG 12N54W TO 8N55W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 51W-56W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
455 AM AST WED OCT 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE ALMOST 1000
MILES EAST NORTHEAST WILL MOVE TO WITHIN 450 MILES EAST NORTHEAST
BY FRIDAY AN THEN DRIFT BACK TO ITS ORIGINAL POSITION BY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
RETREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST UNTIED STATES WHILE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. A LOBE OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG LOW WILL CUT OFF ON FRIDAY
AND MOVE TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY SUNDAY. THIS
LOW LINGERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA MOST OF NEXT WEEK INDUCING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE THEN DISPLACES THE STRONG LOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE
CARIBBEAN ARE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY TODAY AND WILL CAUSE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG
HEATING TO FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF PUERTO RICO IN THE WAKE OF THE LUQUILLO RANGE...MUCH AS
IT DID ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE AREA
DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AND LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE
ANTILLES AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC DEEPENS. WINDS
BECOME VERY LIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A LOW ON THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG LOW IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC THEN MOVES
TO A POSITION NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THIS
LOW WILL BRING AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH IT. ALTHOUGH THE GFS LIMITS
THIS MOISTURE TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THE NAM ALLOWS IT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WOULD EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WOULD BE MORE VIGOROUS DURING ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AND SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCAL...SHOULD
INCREASE IN STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40 WEST AND 16 NORTH IS TAKEN NORTH AND
THEN NORTHEAST BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. ALTHOUGH IT HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DIRECTLY. THE GFS
KEEPS THE WEAK CUT-OFF LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT THE ECMWF FORMS IT MORE NORTH OF THE MONA CHANNEL. EITHER
SOLUTION SHOULD BRING LIGHTER WINDS.

SINCE THE GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE DRY...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TOWARD THE NAM5 DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RUNNING VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN SAN JUAN AND THE LOWER 90S IN
MANY LOWER ELEVATIONS. THESE MAY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO DURING THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...BUT SHOULD MOVE BACK ABOVE 90 DURING THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INDUCED BY THE CUT-OFF LOW MOVING NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PUERTO RICO...THEREFORE...VCTS IS POSSIBLE
FOR TJPS AND TJMZ AFTER 03/16Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 03/13Z
WITH SOME AREAS OBSERVING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS...FROM AN EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL PEAK TODAY AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
LATER THIS WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL FORM OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS AND BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THEIR CLOSE PROXIMITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 77 / 40 30 30 30
STT 88 79 89 78 / 40 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

8 AM discussion of Tropical Wave just east of Lesser Antilles.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW. THE WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH OF A 24N54W
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W.
THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS SHEARING THE CLOUD TOPS
IN THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Discussion of Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N57W TO 8N59W TO
9N52W MOVING WNW AT 20 KT. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST WED OCT 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANALYSIS
THIS AFTERNOON...DEPICTED AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC AND A TUTT LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AT
AROUND 24N 54W. A SURFACE PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN AN EAST NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE
MORNING MAINLY ACROSS THE SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FEW OF THEM
AFFECTED THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS
WELL AS PART OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. SHOWERS
ACROSS THOSE SECTOR GRADUALLY DIMINISHED LATE IN THE MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS AN SMALL AREA OF DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE LINGERING MOISTURE IN COMBINATION
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCAL OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS INDUCED THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
TYPICAL EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR EACH AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE
NIGHTS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH TO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE REGION.

THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BECOMES TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP OVER THE SW
QUADRANT OF PR THROUGH 22Z. AS A RESULT...VCTS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS COULD AFFECT TJPS AND TJMZ LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LLVL WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE ENE AT AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 77 89 / 30 30 30 30
STT 79 89 78 87 / 30 30 30 30

[Macrocane]

Today's HPC discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
139 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2012

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 03/00 UTC: MEXICO CONTINUES UNDER INFLUENCE OF
STRONG POLAR TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT
MID LEVELS...RIDGE WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO...REINFORCING THE CURRENT DRY SPELL AS REGION LIES UNDER
STABLE AIR MASS. THIS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS YUCATAN/CHIAPAS/TABASCO
AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE. AT LOW LEVELS...A STATIONARY FRONT
WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE GULF OF CAMPECHE WHILE WEAKENING.
INITIALLY...BEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CENTER ACROSS
EASTERN YUCATAN. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE WESTWARD WHILE
WEAKENING...RETROGRESSING INTO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE
CYCLE. DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS DECREASING AND SO WILL THE
ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECTING HEAVIEST ACROSS EASTERN YUCATAN/QUINTANA
ROO THROUGH 36 HRS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-40MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED
MAXIMA OF 50-100MM/DAY. ACROSS CAMPECHE/EASTERN CHIAPAS/NORTHERN
GUATEMALA/BELIZE EXPECTING AMOUNTS IN THE 30-60 RANGE. BY 36-60
HRS...HEAVIEST WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY...CONCENTRATING ACROSS CAMPECHE/TABASCO/CHIAPAS. BY
60-84 HRS...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST REMARKABLE FEATURES WILL BE
TUTT STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND EASTERLY WAVE
ARRIVING BY 36-42 HRS. THE LATTER WILL INCREASE BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
THIS WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION BY 36-60 HRS. VENTILATION
FROM TUTT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL AID CONVECTION FURTHERMORE.
ACROSS CENTRAL-NORTHERN HONDURAS/BELIZE AND EASTERN GUATEMALA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY
BY 36-60 HRS. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE AFTERWARDS AS BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVE WESTWARD. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA/WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR/NORTHWEST
NICARAGUA...EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY BY
60-84 HRS.

ACROSS JAMAICA...EASTERLY WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH DEEPENING TUTT
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PRODUCING ECHO TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING THROUGH 36 HRS IN THE
15-20MM/DAY RANGE...WITH MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY IN REGIONS AFFECTED
BY ECHO TRAINING. MORE QUIET PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH LATER IN THE
CYCLE AS MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES...SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS...AND DRIER AIR MASS IS ADVECTED FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORMS. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL ALSO DOMINATE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO. BY THE END OF THE CYCLE...A TUTT TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE NORTHEAST
ISLES. THIS WILL ENHANCE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND HIGHER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THE WEEKEND.

ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES...EXPECTING ACTIVE CONVECTION AS TUTT TO
THE NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION THROUGH THE CYCLE.
FURTHERMORE...ARRIVING TROPICAL WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH TUTT TO
INCREASE AMOUNTS THROUGH 36 HRS. EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. LATER...SLOWLY
RETROGRESSING TUTT TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION AND
SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY...IN MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...TROPICAL WAVE WILL
ALSO ENHANCE CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO
15-30MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...EXPECTING
A SURGE TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS...ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVE.

ACROSS COLOMBIA...MODELS CONTINUE CONFIDENT ABOUT A SURGE IN
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH THE CYCLE ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING PANAMA LOW. FURTHERMORE...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. INITIALLY...TUTT ACROSS
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WILL VENTILATE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN COAST
TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS. BY 36-84 HRS...EXPECTING A SURGE TO 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. ACROSS THE CHOCO...RELATIVELY QUIET
PATTERN INITIALLY WILL EVOLVE TO AN ACTIVE ONE. EXPECTING MAXIMA
INCREASING TO 35-70MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS...AND TO 40-80MM/DAY BY
60-84 HRS.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...CURRENT QUIET PATTERN WILL
ACTIVATE THROUGH THE CYCLE IN RESPONSE OF ORGANIZING LOW OF PANAMA
IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT. YET INITIALLY...A SURGE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS CARIBBEAN COAST...IN INTERACTION WITH TUTT...EXPECTING
15-20MM/DAY AND LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
ACTIVE LOW OF PANAMA HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS ACROSS CHOCO/GULF OF PANAMA THAT WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PANAMA AND THE
PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA LATER IN THE CYCLE. EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
60W 62W 65W 68W 71W 74 DSPT TW
68W 70W 73W 76W 79W DSPT TUTT INDCD
74W 77W 81W 84W 87W 90W 93W EW
96W 99W 101W 103W 105W 108W 111W TUTT INDCD

TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 60W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N WILL
ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLES TO PRODUCE MAXIMA
OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...EXPECTING MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY INITIALLY INCREASING TO 15-30MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS.
ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WAVE WILL LEAD
TO MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE
GULF OF URABA/ANTIOQUIA.

TUTT-INDUCED WAVE AT 68W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N WILL INTERACT
WITH TUTT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECTING A SURGE BY 36-60
HRS TO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY.

EASTERLY WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 74W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THIS
WAVE WILL ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS JAMAICA IN INTERACTION WITH
TUTT TO THE NORTH. EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY IN REGIONS OF
ECHO TRAINING. ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS/BELIZE IT WILL PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS COSTA RICA/WESTERN
PANAMA...IT WILL PRODUCE MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

A TUTT-INDUCED WAVE IS INITIALIZED AT 96W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N.
ALTHOUGH THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING THE NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...MOIST POOL
IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

8 PM Discussion of Tropical Wave near the Lesser Antilles.

TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 19N58W
TO 8N61W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INDICATED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-16N BETWEEN 57W-61W.