Texas Fall 2012

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#41 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 10:13 am

Portastorm wrote:I think many of you will like this forecast from Larry Cosgrove, looking into October. I know one of you won't! :cheesy: :wink:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-september-29-2012-at-7-40-p-m-ct-part-2


I don't like it!
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#42 Postby ndale » Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:06 pm

Our rain gauge here in Pflugerville shows 2.3 inches for this rain event. No complaints there.
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#43 Postby weatherdude1108 » Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:37 pm

1.2 inches is the final tally for this event in South Cedar Park. No complaints here either. The landscape is loving it! :)
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#44 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:I think many of you will like this forecast from Larry Cosgrove, looking into October. I know one of you won't! :cheesy: :wink:

http://www.examiner.com/article/weatheramerica-newsletter-saturday-september-29-2012-at-7-40-p-m-ct-part-2


I don't like it!


Yes, I knew that! :lol:

On the bright side (for you), I have seen one analog winter some folks are referencing and it was a blow-torch winter for most of the US. Maybe that will verify and you'll have another happy winter. But the odds do not appear in your favor at the moment, o' great HeatMiser.
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Re:

#45 Postby Portastorm » Sun Sep 30, 2012 12:40 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:1.2 inches is the final tally for this event in South Cedar Park. No complaints here either. The landscape is loving it! :)


The Portastorm Weather Center recorded 1.55 inches for the event. Not as much as we thought we might get ... but nobody's complaining.
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#46 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 30, 2012 1:29 pm

Looking forward to next weekend. Models are showing DFW not getting out of the 60s on Sat and Sun struggling to get out of the 50s. Austin staying in the 60s and Houston falling from the 70s. Looks like the bigger front will arrive Sat/Sun and a weaker front Friday-ish. Beyond that temps looks below normal for the rest of the run.
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#47 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:52 pm

November is coming early this year!

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#48 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:34 am

Here is data on lake levels for areas around San Angelo. The lakes in west central Texas are much lower than any of ours, as San Angelo goes into Stage 3 water restrictions. However, their lakes benefitted a lot this weekend! :D

http://www.gosanangelo.com/news/2012/oc ... october-1/
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#49 Postby horselattitudesfarm » Mon Oct 01, 2012 10:41 am

cycloneye wrote:Texas folks for sure are happy to see this unfold. Saved loop.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/suww13.jpg

Its nice to see such a big rain shield out west. By the way, did you notice that strange gap in the radar imaging down in southeast New Mexico. That gap is always there and is in almost all radar images I see, even going back several years. Here's one I captured a few weeks ago: It may just be a lack of coverage from other radars , but the radar achoes to the southwest look truncated and not at the radius-edge of a circle like the other sides.
Image

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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#50 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Oct 01, 2012 11:14 am

horselattitudesfarm wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Texas folks for sure are happy to see this unfold. Saved loop.

http://oi45.tinypic.com/suww13.jpg

Its nice to see such a big rain shield out west. By the way, did you notice that strange gap in the radar imaging down in southeast New Mexico. That gap is always there and is in almost all radar images I see, even going back several years. Here's one I captured a few weeks ago: It may just be a lack of coverage from other radars , but the radar echoes to the southwest look truncated and not at the radius-edge of a circle like the other sides.
http://imageshack.us/a/img835/2421/strangetriangeshapeover.gif

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Interesting! It looks like the Guadalupe Mountains are in that area (or some mountain range). The radar waves could be bouncing off the mountains, dispersing them or blocking them from returning the echoes to the radar. Just my guess.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#51 Postby iorange55 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:42 am

This weekend's front looks to be the "real deal"

Maybe even the 40s reaching the DFW area? :lol:
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#52 Postby Portastorm » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:34 am

iorange55 wrote:This weekend's front looks to be the "real deal"

Maybe even the 40s reaching the DFW area? :lol:


While the medium-range globals (Euro and GFS) have wavered a bit on strength from run to run ... they have been consistent for days now in showing a very strong front (the strongest since earlier this calendar year) for late this coming weekend. I think highs in the mids 60s for south central Texas is distinctly possible. And cooler for you Metroplexers.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#53 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:07 am

Portastorm wrote:
iorange55 wrote:This weekend's front looks to be the "real deal"

Maybe even the 40s reaching the DFW area? :lol:


While the medium-range globals (Euro and GFS) have wavered a bit on strength from run to run ... they have been consistent for days now in showing a very strong front (the strongest since earlier this calendar year) for late this coming weekend. I think highs in the mids 60s for south central Texas is distinctly possible. And cooler for you Metroplexers.


Awesome! :cold: There is also a 20% chance of light rain thrown in for Saturday through Sunday for the Austin area for good measure. :)
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#54 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:49 pm

I think the NWS may be taking the conservative route on this. Rightfully so being many days away, but I think DFW will fall on Sat from the 60s in the morning to the mid 50s as the front comes through and hold steady or continue to fall into the 40s that evening. Southern half of Texas will fall too probably not as dramatically but low to mid 60s for Austin-Houston not out of the question.

Further north in Oklahoma 40s look likely going into the upper 30s maybe Sunday morning.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#55 Postby Portastorm » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:59 pm

OK, I should probably have my head examined for posting this ... but I feel like Mother Nature may be giving us some clues for what's ahead. My concern about this post is that if things don't end up like I think they might, I'll be eating a Texas-sized crow sandwich come next March and what little respect I may have built up over the years will evaporate. How's that for caveats?! :lol:

Alright. Here it is. I've been researching and studying the weather for signs/clues about this coming winter. As you know, I've already posted a forecast. The strength of this weekend's front really impresses me and I couldn't remember offhand when the last time was when we saw such a strong front so early in autumn. I was visiting with one of our fellow S2Kers via PM, a person who shall go nameless to protect identity but this person has proven themselves to be very savvy weatherwise, about the last time Texas saw such a strong front this early in October. Guess what year comes up? 1976! And the 1976-77 analog has shown up in MANY 12-13 winter forecasts I have seen about this coming winter. It was quite a winter for most of Texas, by the way.

Something to think about. Comments? Suggestions for condiments for my crow sandwich?! :wink:
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#56 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 03, 2012 4:55 pm

Nice thoughts Portastorm. Either you will have cold turkey or a bunch of bologna this winter :cheesy: :wink:

FW have adjusted for the stout cold front and reflecting the potency of the coming air mass for this time of year (20+ degrees below average).

Dallas
Saturday: A chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Saturday Night:
A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 48. Windy, with a north northeast wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. North northeast wind around 5 mph.


Austin

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 60. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.


Houston

Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 71.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 56.
Last edited by Ntxw on Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#57 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:01 pm

Depending on who you use Houston will see highs ranging from the mid 60's to the upper 70's with lows from 48-57 on Sun. and Mon. My guess is Sun. will be in the 50's and 60's with Mon. in the 60's and 70's.
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#58 Postby Rgv20 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:27 am

The forecast high for my area for Sunday and Monday is in the low 80's with lows in the low 60's.....It is going to feel so nice! :D
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Re: Texas Fall 2012

#59 Postby wxman57 » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:34 am

horselattitudesfarm wrote:... By the way, did you notice that strange gap in the radar imaging down in southeast New Mexico. That gap is always there and is in almost all radar images I see, even going back several years. Here's one I captured a few weeks ago: It may just be a lack of coverage from other radars , but the radar echoes to the southwest look truncated and not at the radius-edge of a circle like the other sides.

http://imageshack.us/a/img835/2421/strangetriangeshapeover.gif


The gap is always there because there are no radars that cover that area.
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#60 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 04, 2012 1:44 pm

Any guesses on where the front is?

ImageImage

From FW

WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROPA EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SINCE THE AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT IS VERY DENSE IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE PARTIALLY
ON ITS OWN WEIGHT
AND NOT AWAIT THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. OF COURSE...SOME MIXING ON THE LEADING EDGE WILL SLOW IT
DOWN TODAY...BUT WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A WIND SHIFT AT
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES BY EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY. FOR NOW WE WILL
TURN THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
MORNING.


Is this October? :wink:
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