WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

euro6208 · #21 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:39 pm

looks like the strongest of the two and headed for land appears to make a run to a typhoon over vietnam...

WTPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 117.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 117.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 15.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.7N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.7N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.9N 115.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 15.1N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 15.2N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.0N 100.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 118.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

euro6208 · #22 Postby **euro6208** » Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:57 pm

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 991.4mb/ 57.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.4

euro6208 · #23 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 3:31 am

WTPN31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 117.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 117.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 15.1N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 14.9N 117.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 14.9N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 15.0N 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 15.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 14.9N 102.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 15.3N 117.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 575 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 20
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Meow · #24 Postby **Meow** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 8:09 am

Looks like Gaemi’s centre is near some atoll.

STS 1220 (GAEMI)
Issued at 13:00 UTC, 3 October 2012

<Analyses at 03/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°20'(15.3°)
E117°35'(117.6°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E116°30'(116.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E114°05'(114.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 06/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00'(15.0°)
E109°55'(109.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL370km(200NM)

euro6208 · #25 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:28 am

on the verge of becoming our 14th typhoon of the season...

WTPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 14.8N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.7N 116.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.7N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.8N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.9N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 15.2N 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 117.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 21
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Latest Discussion...

WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
09//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 030951Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS
IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM RJTD,
PGTW AND KNES. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). TS 21W LIES JUST WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTER, WITH LOW (05-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
FAVORABLE WESTWARD OUTFLOW. TS 21W HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD IN
A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE HAS
STARTED TO TRANSITION FROM THE NEAR- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH
TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECASTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRANSITIONING TO THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING RELATIVELY SLOWLY AS A DEEP,
BROAD TROUGH, WHICH IS OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, PROPAGATES EAST.
AFTER TAU 24, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND PROVIDE A
STRONGER WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE, RESULTING IN AN ACCELERATION
WESTWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH UNCERTAINTY BEING IN THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD ACCELERATION.
DUE TO THAT DISAGREEMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
TS 21W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER GENERALLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 21W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
WESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
VIETNAM JUST BEFORE TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 AS
IT INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST ASIA. AGAIN,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A VERY LOW SPREAD ON TRACK, BUT THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

phwxenthusiast · #26 Postby **phwxenthusiast** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 6:13 pm

exposed....

strong wind shear and dry air, wow i didn't see that coming...

dexterlabio · #27 Postby **dexterlabio** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 9:44 pm

looking at the IR loop, you can hardly think this is still a storm, but the visible sat imagery shows the naked but defined center of circulation. funny thing is the storm's circulation moved closer to Luzon and it's sunny here in Manila. JMA graphic shows gale-force winds covering parts of Luzon but that doesn't look to be the case.

Now back to TS GAEMI

TS 1220 (GAEMI)
Issued at 01:10 UTC, 4 October 2012

<Analyses at 04/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°00'(15.0°)
E118°30'(118.5°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55'(14.9°)
E116°35'(116.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°30'(14.5°)
E112°50'(112.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 07/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E108°10'(108.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)

euro6208 · #28 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:29 pm

no longer forecast to become a typhoon...

WTPN31 PGTW 040300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 011A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 118.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 118.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 14.8N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 14.7N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.7N 115.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.8N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.9N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.3N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 118.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 21 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MALIKSI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED STORM
MOTION IN REMARKS SECTION FROM SOUTHWARD TO EASTWARD.//
NNNN

euro6208 · #29 Postby **euro6208** » Wed Oct 03, 2012 11:36 pm

WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM
EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME FULLY
EXPOSED, WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 90 NM TO THE WEST
OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE MSI WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER IT IS NOTED THAT THIS POSITION IS
APPROXIMATELY 50 NM TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK POSITION
WHICH HAD BEEN ESTIMATED FROM ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES
OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE
STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES FROM THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTH TO A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR. AFTER TAU 24, WITH THE STR FIRMLY IN PLACE, TS 21W WILL PICK UP
SPEED AND TRACK DECISIVELY WESTWARD MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE
BEFORE TAU 72. AS THE STORM MOTION BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW, THE VWS WILL DECREASE AND ALLOW TS 21W TO INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE TEMPERED BY UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE FROM THE STR.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS GAEMI WILL QUICKLY ERODE OVER LAND DUE TO
FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE TOPOGRAPHY, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, HOWEVER,
THERE ARE DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEED. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS SLOWER THAN CONSENSUS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE QUASI-
STATIONARY MOVEMENT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 12-24 HOURS.
DUE TO THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TRACK SPEEDS AND UNCERTAINTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

mrbagyo · #30 Postby **mrbagyo** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 12:22 am

fully exposed, easterly wind shear doing its thing again

Meow · #31 Postby **Meow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 8:28 am

Poor Gaemi...

euro6208 · #32 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:46 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 116.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 116.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 14.5N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 14.5N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 14.5N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 14.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 14.1N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 116.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM EAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED, WITH DEEP
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
HAS DEEPENED AND ITS DISPLACEMENT FROM THE LLCC HAS DECREASED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE MSI
ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AVERAGED
FROM DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 08 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA TOWARDS VIETNAM UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE SHORTLY AFTER TAU 36. WITH
THE STORM MOTION NOW IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, THE VWS
WILL BE MITIGATED, ALLOWING TS 21W TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSIFICATION WILL BE TEMPERED BY UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE STR. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL, THE STORM WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 72 DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE DUE WESTWARD STORM
MOTION BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK SPEEDS. FOR
THIS REASON, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. //
NNNN

euro6208 · #33 Postby **euro6208** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 10:47 pm

mrbagyo wrote:fully exposed, easterly wind shear doing its thing again

looks like it upwelled cooler waters due to her stationary movement...

Meow · #34 Postby **Meow** » Thu Oct 04, 2012 11:42 pm

euro6208 wrote:looks like it upwelled cooler waters due to her stationary movement...

No. High vertical wind shear from the south makes Gaemi exposed.

euro6208 · #35 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 12:06 am

Meow wrote:
euro6208 wrote:looks like it upwelled cooler waters due to her stationary movement...

No. High vertical wind shear from the south makes Gaemi exposed.

i know...i was just mentioning the upwelled cooler waters because of her slow sometimes stationary movement...do you get it? you are making yourselve look stupid...

mrbagyo · #36 Postby **mrbagyo** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 3:32 am

No. High vertical wind shear from the south makes Gaemi exposed.

i thought the wind shear came from the north-east. I based it on the displacement of the convection relative to the LLC..
and yes, I think upwelling may cause weakening specially when a TC hover in the same area for a long period of time churning the cooler water to the upper surface of the sea thus lowering the SST, I think it happened to STY Lupit back in 2009 when she was in the Philippine Sea just east of extreme northern Luzon

Hurricane_Luis · #37 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:04 am

Sheared

euro6208 · #38 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:19 am

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 14.3N 114.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3N 114.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 13.9N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.6N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 13.5N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 13.4N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 114.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED
WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING SHEARED IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK SPEED HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS,
BUT REMAINS ON A STEADY WESTWARD DIRECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
35 KNOTS IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF A 2.5/3.O DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW
BECAUSE OF A 0452Z OSCAT PASS SHOWING 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE LLCC,
LEADING TO MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)(15 TO 20
KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTH CHINA SEA TOWARDS VIETNAM UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
STR AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF HUE SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24. THE
STORM MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME INTO PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW, CAUSING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE VWS AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 24. AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL, THE
STORM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE DUE
WESTWARD STORM MOTION AND HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TRACK
SPEEDS. BASED ON THE STEADY SPEEDS AND GOOD MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

euro6208 · #39 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:23 am

wow! it was forecast to become a typhoon but suddenly everything is going downhill for gaemi...wind shear, dry air and that unexpected stationary track near luzon which caused some upwelling really destroyed this system...

along track sst and ocean heat potential favors strengthening but decreases near vietnam...i don't think this system will rebound from her suffering....

euro6208 · #40 Postby **euro6208** » Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:13 pm

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 111.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 111.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 13.1N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 12.9N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 111.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN

WDPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 21W (GAEMI) WARNING NR
19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 21W (GAEMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 21W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW
CONCEALING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE BULK OF THIS
DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY INCLUDING A 062202Z SSMIS SHOWS IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING BUT SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS POSITIONED ALONG THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC, THERE IS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ASSESSED
AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35
TO 45 KNOTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 40 TO 45 KNOTS. TS 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 21W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF VIETNAM BY TAU
12. AFTER TAU 12, GAEMI IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. TS 21W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS PRIOR TO
LANDFALL AS THE EASTERLY VWS IS OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE QUICK
WESTWARD TRACK.//
NNNN

WPAC: GAEMI - Post-Tropical

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