WPAC: PRAPIROON - Extratropical

[Meow]

West of Guam. Another disturbance forming from ex-Maliski’s tail.

[Meow]

Now a tropical depression, it may become a tropical storm within 24 hours.



TD
Issued at 01:25 UTC, 5 October 2012

<Analyses at 05/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N14°30'(14.5°)
E144°30'(144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slowly
Central pressure 1006hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35'(15.6°)
E142°05'(142.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[euro6208]

i expect this to become our next tropical cyclone (1 min)...

nothing from dvorak yet...

[mrbagyo]

agree with you, this might be our next TC, just west of Saipan, its rotation is now apparent on the latest visible loop..
where will this go??

[mrbagyo]

UPGRADED TO MEDIUM

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.8N 142.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH A RIBBON OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE MSI SUGGESTS AN ELONGATION OF THE LLCC IN
THE EAST-WEST AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE IN
THE 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER A TUTT CELL WITH A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH, WHICH IS CREATING A MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
THE CURRENT LIMITING FACTOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CONSOLIDATING LLCC, WARM SSTS, AND
LOW VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

so after what? 4 invests developing in this large disturbance..this one wins

[Hurricane_Luis]

Looking good, Invest 98W in top left

[Meow]

Only this survived. Other tropical disturbances around that has dissipated.

[euro6208]

euro develops this into a monster typhoon...

[euro6208]

05/2101 UTC 17.1N 141.0E T1.0/1.0 99W -- West Pacific

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8N
142.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 141.1E, APPROXIMATELY 285 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSON AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH A LINE OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN
QUADRANT AND A LARGE AREA OF CONVERGENT FLOW TO THE EAST. A 060029Z
AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS WITH THE MSI SHOWING VERY
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE EAST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE 30 TO 31 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING
EXIST TO THE NORTH, SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND A POINT SOURCE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS CREATING A MARGINAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT
(10 TO 15 KNOTS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert



WTPN21 PGTW 061730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 140.5E TO 18.7N 134.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
061700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
139.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.4N
141.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH
OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED BUT FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 061051Z SSMIS 37GHZ
IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 061135Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 15
TO 20 KNOT WINDS; HOWEVER, COMPARED TO RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY
THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH WINDS WRAPPING MORE
TIGHTLY INTO THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN IMPROVING
ENVIRONMENT WITH DECREASING (WEAK 10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 25N 147E. IN GENERAL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
071730Z.//
NNNN

[somethingfunny]

Another one for Okinawa?

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 070305

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (W OF GUAM)

B. 07/0232Z

C. 18.2N

D. 137.4E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CASPER


upgrade eminent...

[euro6208]

Another one for Okinawa?

euro has this passing to the east of okinawa as a powerful typhoon but i wouldn't be surprised if *prapiroon* makes a direct hit...

bullish year for that island...

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Tropical Storm PRAPIROON

TS 1221 (PRAPIROON)
Issued at 13:05 UTC, 7 October 2012
<Analyses at 07/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N17°50'(17.8°)
E136°35'(136.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 08/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°50'(17.8°)
E133°05'(133.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)

<Forecast for 09/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E131°30'(131.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 10/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°40'(17.7°)
E131°05'(131.1°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL410km(220NM)

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING YET ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 062325Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 070009Z ASCAT IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND ONLY 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR
25N 145E. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS STILL INDICATE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.


i can't believe they haven't upgraded this yet...both PGTW and KNES are 2.0...

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 138.3E, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING YET ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH
FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 062325Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING
INTO THE NORTH QUADRANT OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 070009Z ASCAT IMAGE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
AND ONLY 05 TO 10 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR
25N 145E. OVERALL, THE DYNAMIC MODELS STILL INDICATE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.


i can't believe they haven't upgraded this yet...both PGTW and KNES are 2.0...

In many other ocasions JWTC upgrades first than JMA. Well,they may have reasons for not doing it yet.

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061721Z OCT 12//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 136.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 136.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 18.1N 135.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 18.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 18.0N 133.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.9N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.0N 131.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.4N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 19.1N 130.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 136.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (PRAPIROON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700NM
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND
CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 061721Z OCT
12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 061730). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
NNNN