Central Caribbean Potential Storm: ETA 10 Days

[Blown Away]

12z GFS: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html
384 hours:


240 Hours: Low develops and moves slowly NW

[cycloneye]

I want to see the Euro jump on it and GFS have consistency on showing it and if that happens, I will jump on the development bandwagon.

[boca]

The 18z GFS has it moving NE not being a US threat

[cycloneye]

2nd run in a row showing a Hurricane in the Western Caribbean. It has been a while that we have not been on model watching mode.

Animation.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Hurricane Alexis]

The 18z GFS has it moving NE not being a US threat

It moves NE initially, then north, and in the last frame it moves NNW.

[Hurricaneman]

October 5th 0zGFS had it near Puerto Rico in 384 at 1002mb

October 5th 6zGFS had it 250 miles south of Jamaica at 384hrs at 1005mb


October 5th 12zGFS had it 200 miles west of Jamaica at 384 hrs at 982mb

October 5th 18ZGFS had it Near Jamaica at 384 hrs at 986mb

October 5th 12zEuro seems to have a broad area of low pressure at 240 just like the last few GFS runs at 240, so this does have some model support, will the models suddenly drop it or could this be a threat to possibly Jamaica, Cuba and possibly Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane Alexis]

00Z GFS develops a system in the central caribbean in 240 hours and then moves it northward through Hispaniola.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[Fego]

GFS 06Z again passing over Hispaniola. Here we are watching any trend toward the right.

[Hurricaneman]

GFS 06Z again passing over Hispaniola. Here we are watching any trend toward the right.

actually it looks like the 6zGFS seems to split this into 2 seperate lows, one near Puerto Rico and one 200 miles south of Jamaica, wouldn't that be something if we get 2 tropical systems out of this

The 12zGFS forms this near Aruba in 228 hrs and moves it to just south of the Isle of Youth at 384hrs, so model development is now within 10 days and not getting pushed back so it slightly bears watching for the time being, it looks also like it develops a second low and transfers all the energy to that low

Does anyone think this comes from a mix of the monsoon trough and the wave at 8N directly south of the Cape Verde islands currently

[Caribwxgirl]

Where do you guys find the model runs? I'd like to be able to find them. Thanks

[SFLcane]

Where do you guys find the model runs? I'd like to be able to find them. Thanks

Here are just a few..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[weatherwindow]

GFS 06Z again passing over Hispaniola. Here we are watching any trend toward the right.

10/7 00Z GFS...Over Mayaguez @ 240 hrs

[Caribwxgirl]

Where do you guys find the model runs? I'd like to be able to find them. Thanks

Here are just a few..

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Thank you thank you thank you :d

[wxman57]

I don't believe the GFS at day 15 for a second. Every single run has a different solution. Caribbean has been hostile all year and there is no evidence of anything changing now.

[floridasun78]

I don't believe the GFS at day 15 for a second. Every single run has a different solution. Caribbean has been hostile all year and there is no evidence of anything changing now.

wx trying say close topic down not thing going happen let all go winter topic page

[Hurricaneman]

IMO this should be merged with the Eastern Altantic Wave thread as it seems to develop that wave into the caribbean

[cycloneye]

Blown Away ,to not have two threads about the same topic of models for development, this thread is locked as your point of origin for development was not clear but it looks much more now with the wave in the Atlantic.