Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion of Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N32W TO 9N32W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
MONSOON TROUGH THAT IS CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE WHERE A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW HAS BEEN ANALYZED. THE WAVE
CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH REGION NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
31W-33W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W.

[Gustywind]

Very sad news here as crash plane has occured today in the butterfly island . The pilot is dead and the passenger seriously hurt. My condoleances to the family

VARIOUS FACTS. Accident of ULM, a death

franceantilles.fr 07.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189272.php

Late morning, off the coast of Gosier, a ULM crashed at sea, presumably due to an engine failure. The pilot couldn't have come off and would be drowned. His passenger could be recovered. He was seriously wounded.

[cycloneye]

Very sad news here as crash plane has occured today in the butterfly island . The pilot is dead and the passenger seriously hurt. My condoleances to the family

VARIOUS FACTS. Accident of ULM, a death

franceantilles.fr 07.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189272.php

Late morning, off the coast of Gosier, a ULM crashed at sea, presumably due to an engine failure. The pilot couldn't have come off and would be drowned. His passenger could be recovered. He was seriously wounded.

That is terrible news from the Butterfly island Gusty. My condolenses to the family of the pilot and thankfully,the passenger got out alive and hopefully has a full recovery soon.

[msbee]

Very sad news here as crash plane has occured today in the butterfly island . The pilot is dead and the passenger seriously hurt. My condoleances to the family

VARIOUS FACTS. Accident of ULM, a death

franceantilles.fr 07.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189272.php

Late morning, off the coast of Gosier, a ULM crashed at sea, presumably due to an engine failure. The pilot couldn't have come off and would be drowned. His passenger could be recovered. He was seriously wounded.

I am so sorry to hear that Gusty.

Did you know also there was a crash on Antigua with 2 dead?

http://www.winnfm.com/news/local/1628-t ... in-antigua

[Gustywind]

Very sad news here as crash plane has occured today in the butterfly island . The pilot is dead and the passenger seriously hurt. My condoleances to the family

VARIOUS FACTS. Accident of ULM, a death

franceantilles.fr 07.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189272.php

Late morning, off the coast of Gosier, a ULM crashed at sea, presumably due to an engine failure. The pilot couldn't have come off and would be drowned. His passenger could be recovered. He was seriously wounded.

I am so sorry to hear that Gusty.

Did you know also there was a crash on Antigua with 2 dead?

http://www.winnfm.com/news/local/1628-t ... in-antigua

What? Another one in Antigua? Waouw, what's up in the Carib?

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL AREA NEXT
FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL WERE OBSERVED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT...AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE AFFECTED THE AREA. THE SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA...WHICH IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT OF
THE WIND FLOW TOMORROW...WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS NOT GOING TO LAST TOO LONG.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN NEXT FEW DAYS...AND
IN FACT...WILL MOVE EVEN CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE PROMISE
TO MAINTAIN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. NO
CHANGES IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL BUT SHRA/TSRA PSBL ALL TAF SITES NEXT 24
HRS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDS. WILL LIKELY UPDATE SEVERAL TAFS FOR MORE
SHRA. SOME MTN OBSC LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AFTER 08/16Z. WIND
BLO FL200 REMAIN LGT/VRBL BLO 10 KT THRU MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 20
STT 89 78 88 79 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT
1600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE PRODUCING AN
ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

[cycloneye]

Let's watch the progress of Invest 98L that is ESE of the Windward Islands. Some models develop it and moves it thru the islands. Follow the discussions about this system at the 98L thread. Of course you can also discuss about it here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113865&p=2279155#p2279155

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
247 PM AST MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO
INDUCE AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW. TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO
EXTENT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE
TO INDUCE AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. AS A RESULT...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...RESULTING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREAS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.V.I. LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AMPLIFIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...
HOWEVER AFTERNOON CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TUTT AND ITS MID LEVEL REFLECTION...NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID
WEEK...WITH ASSOCIATED AXIS REACHING THE LOCAL ISLANDS ON FRIDAY.
CONVECTION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY
AS THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE TUTT PREVAILS OVER THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTN SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR AND MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST TOWARDS
THE NORTH COASTAL AREAS TIL AT LEAST 08/22Z.THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CAUSE BRIEF MVFR CONDS IN CIG/VSBY WITH SUDDEN SFC WND GUST
AS THEY PASS BY. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTD FM E-SE BLO FL200. AFT 08/22Z...
EXPECT GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF CLOUD LYRS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY LEAVING
VFR CONDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FLYING AREA. LOW LEVEL WINDS CONTD FM
E-SE BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...NCDC BUOYS CONTINUES TO SHOW PULSES OF NORTHEAST SWELLS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES...UNDER A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 89 77 89 / 30 30 30 40
STT 80 88 79 88 / 40 40 40 40

[msbee]

Let's watch the progress of Invest 98L that is ESE of the Windward Islands. Some models develop it and moves it thru the islands. Follow the discussions about this system at the 98L thread. Of course you can also discuss about it here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113865&p=2279155#p2279155

can't stop watching to our East yet, can we?

[Gustywind]

Let's watch the progress of Invest 98L that is ESE of the Windward Islands. Some models develop it and moves it thru the islands. Follow the discussions about this system at the 98L thread. Of course you can also discuss about it here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113865&p=2279155#p2279155

Hey Cycloneye, what a change from yesterday, that was fast with 98L! Yeah, let's wait and see and monitor this 'little' thing.

[Gustywind]

New record of temperatures in Martinica reported yesterday at le Lamentin, 35°4. That's very warm .

[Gustywind]

More infos about the weather in Guadeloupe... i forgot to mention yesterday that numerous waterspouts (2)have been reported even a tornado at Anse-Bertrand in the same day .

http://www.guadeloupe.franceantilles.fr ... 189369.php

[Gustywind]

Very sad news here as crash plane has occured today in the butterfly island . The pilot is dead and the passenger seriously hurt. My condoleances to the family

VARIOUS FACTS. Accident of ULM, a death

franceantilles.fr 07.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189272.php

Late morning, off the coast of Gosier, a ULM crashed at sea, presumably due to an engine failure. The pilot couldn't have come off and would be drowned. His passenger could be recovered. He was seriously wounded.

That is terrible news from the Butterfly island Gusty. My condolenses to the family of the pilot and thankfully,the passenger got out alive and hopefully has a full recovery soon.

Yeah Cycloneye, that's tragic

[cycloneye]

Let's watch the progress of Invest 98L that is ESE of the Windward Islands. Some models develop it and moves it thru the islands. Follow the discussions about this system at the 98L thread. Of course you can also discuss about it here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113865&p=2279155#p2279155

Hey Cycloneye, what a change from yesterday, that was fast with 98L! Yeah, let's wait and see and monitor this 'little' thing.

Well Gusty,may not be a little thing as is a relative large system and the models are semi bullish on it. What may be sure to occur is plenty of rain that the system may bring to the islands. Is still early to say how much rain it brings and is also early to say about intensity.

[Gustywind]

Let's watch the progress of Invest 98L that is ESE of the Windward Islands. Some models develop it and moves it thru the islands. Follow the discussions about this system at the 98L thread. Of course you can also discuss about it here.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113865&p=2279155#p2279155

Hey Cycloneye, what a change from yesterday, that was fast with 98L! Yeah, let's wait and see and monitor this 'little' thing.

Well Gusty,may not be a little thing as is a relative large system and the models are semi bullish on it. What may be sure to occur is plenty of rain that the system may bring to the islands. Is still early to say how much rain it brings and is also early to say about intensity.

Folks Cycloneye, this system continues to gain weight and as you said the models are semi bullish... so we should keep a very close on it. If it could be a nice rainmarker, rains should be welcomed in all the islands of the EC including la linda isla del encanto but let's see if this scenario pan's out.

[Gustywind]

In terms of weather forecasts, Meteo-France Guadeloupe emphasizes on this feature as perturbation or a pretty active twave affecting us early Thursday but especially Friday even Saturday. Here is a snipet from our Pro Mets: "

Trend for Thursday October 11:Thursday, degradation is looming with the arrival of a new active tropical wave on the Lesser Antilles. Wind is strengthening at 30 / 35 km/H. Sea deterorating with waves reaching 2 meters. Returning East swell.

Trend for Friday 12 October and Saturday, October 13:Friday and Saturday: Weather is gloomy, rainy and stormy at time. The wind reached 40 to 50 km/h on average with a few gusts in thunderstorms. The sea becomes jerky and continues to widen. It becomes strong with waves reaching near 3 meters, or even more.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO remains at 10%.

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF
AFRICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE
ARE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

8 PM discussion of Wave 98L.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N39W TO 17N41W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 08N39W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SURROUNDING THE WAVE FROM 05N-15N BETWEEN 37W-44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 38W-44W.

[cycloneye]

Interesting study that I found in a Puerto Rico blog about the history of October Cyclones affecting Puerto Rico:

(a) In the years 1954, 1962, 1963, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005 and 2007, originated in the month of October (sometimes, at the end of September) several disturbances which might have had its origin in the geographical area which is now the "Invest 98L".

(b) Between them, the most powerful seems to have been "Flora", which at the beginning of October 1963 crossed as powerful hurricane on the southern half of the Caribbean. Flora originated in latitude 8 ° N and 33 ° W.

(c) The greater part of these disturbances of October originated in Africa route, have ended up reaching our area (and not exactly to Puerto Rico) as simple storms or depressions.(a) in October, and since 1950, Puerto Rico has not been reached by any hurricane whose name begins with the letter "P" or following.