Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

Interesting study that I found in a Puerto Rico blog about the history of October Cyclones affecting Puerto Rico:

(a) In the years 1954, 1962, 1963, 1974, 1975, 1988, 1990, 1995, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005 and 2007, originated in the month of October (sometimes, at the end of September) several disturbances which might have had its origin in the geographical area which is now the "Invest 98L".

(b) Between them, the most powerful seems to have been "Flora", which at the beginning of October 1963 crossed as powerful hurricane on the southern half of the Caribbean. Flora originated in latitude 8 ° N and 33 ° W.

(c) The greater part of these disturbances of October originated in Africa route, have ended up reaching our area (and not exactly to Puerto Rico) as simple storms or depressions.(a) in October, and since 1950, Puerto Rico has not been reached by any hurricane whose name begins with the letter "P" or following.

Very informative, good catch. One thing for sure, let's hope that 98L don't turn in any Flora and stays weak bringing some well needed water and no more

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
941 PM AST MON OCT 8 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL SLOWLY
RETROGRESS OVR PR BY THU THEN FILL OVR THE WEEKEND. A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND ENTER THE ERN CARIBBEAN SEA SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT WIND FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER THE WEEKEND LIMITING SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF
INVEST 98L. GFES MEAN SOLUTION INDICATES A SHARP TROUGH WITH THIS
FEATURE STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALSO NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WHAT APPEARS LIKELY IS THAT FEATURE OR SYSTEM WILL
BE VERY SLOW TO LEAVE THE REGION. SO POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SVRL
DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EVENTUAL
TRACK OF SYSTEM.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Watching invest 98L.



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
602 AM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST NORTH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS OVER PR BY THURSDAY THEN FILL OVER THE
WEEKEND. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AND ENTER THE ERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...EASTERN PUERTO RICO RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION OBSERVED OVER THE
MUNICIPALITIES OF CEIBA AND FAJARDO. THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATED JUST
BEFORE 5 AM AST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED EAST NORTHEAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES...WILL SLOWLY RETROGRESS OVER PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES FOR MOST PART OF THE
WEEK...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN MOISTURE THURSDAY...AS A
SLOT OF DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION.

MEANWHILE...FARTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND AFRICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
SATURDAY. THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANY BY DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH
LATEST SJU-GFS LAYER PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS INDICATING VALUES
OVER 2.5 INCHES. ALL COMPUTER MODELS AGREED THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME ACTIVE AS IT APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE
WEEKEND. IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE WEATHER LOCALLY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL XCPT ISOLD/SCT MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA...FOR
USVI AND EAST PR THRU MORNING THEN MAINLY WEST PR IN AFTERNOON. SCT
MTN OBSC THIS AFTERNOON OVR PR. WIND AOB 10 KT SFC TO FL150 THRU WED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 89 78 / 30 40 50 50
STT 88 78 89 80 / 30 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

Here is the discussion of 98L by Rob of CrownWeather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
244 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERS...ONE NORTHEAST
OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY RETROGRESS WESTWARD AND DEEPEN
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE BEGINNING TO FILL
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT EASTERLY
TRADES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION
INDUCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELD
ACROSS REGION WILL KEEP PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.70 TO 2.00 INCHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANYING A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS SO FAR EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
PREVAILING EASTERLIES ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MEANDERING
TUTT AND DIURNAL AND LOCAL INFLUENCES WILL MAKE FOR VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO BE INITIALLY FOCUSED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND EAST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ...THEN TO BE LATER SPREAD AND STEER TOWARDS
WEST SECTIONS OF THE THE ISLAND LATER IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS CAN ALSO EXPECT PERIODS OF MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH SOME OF THE RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT
TJMZ AND TJPS THROUGH ABOUT 09/22Z AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION PERSISTS.
AFT 09/22Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TIST/TISX AND TNCM/TKPK.
EAST WINDS OF UP TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 20 50 50 50
STT 78 88 79 89 / 50 50 50 50

[cycloneye]

From St Croix posting at stormcarib.com

http://stormcarib.com/


Trouble Ahead with Invest 98L !



•From: Isabel Cerni <isabelcerni at gmail.com>
•Date: Tue, 9 Oct 2012 12:52:24 -0500



Good Afternoon,

I think, rather, I hope, that everyone along the island chain is monitoring 98L. It is in our best interest to pay attention to this system. The report from the Atlantic Tropical Weather Services is that both the GFS and the European Compt. models both seem to suggest developement into a tropical storm in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Sunday and Monday.

The Canadian Compt. model "goes absolutely bonkers" and forecasts this system to impact Barbados and the Windward islands as a moderate Tropical Storm by Thurs. then significantly intensifying it into a hurricane and turn northward impacting much of the islands in the Leewards on Friday into Saturday bringing hurricane conditions by Saturday night.

Rob Lightbown of the ATWS strongly suggest that all residents and vacationers in the Lesser Antilles and the island of Barbados keep close tabs on the progress of this system.

40 to 50 mph winds and rough seas can be expected along the entire island chain of the Lesser Antilles. This squally weather is then expected to spread across the US and British Virgin Islands as we get into Saturday.

So, there we have it. Now it's a matter of monitoring this system and hope that it just dissipates or goes out to sea. But most importantly is to make sure that we have all our hurricane supplies in place and not have to run out at the last minute. I suggest that you watch the updates on the Weather Channel at 10 mins to the hour for the latest on the progress of this system, those of you on the mainland and here locally. Those in the other islands will have other weather services for updates. There are many Internet sites that are monitoring hurricanes; go to Google search for information. Until later when I will report on our present conditions which so far have been somewhat mixed and to see where 98L is located. All the best to everyone in the direct route of 98L. May God bless us all.

Isabel

[Macrocane]

Today's HPC Caribbean discussion:

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 09/00 UTC: AT MID/UPPER LEVELS...A POLAR
TROUGH IS INITIALIZED OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN USA. OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT LOW LEVELS IT WILL
SUSTAIN A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE A POLAR RIDGE MIGRATES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN USA AT 48-96 HRS. THE POLAR RIDGE IS TO SUSTAIN A
BRISK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO BY 54/60 HRS...THAT PERSIST THROUGH 72 HRS. THIS WILL FAVOR
TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...WITH
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY TO AFFECT
NORTHERN CHIAPAS-TABASCO-CAMPECHE. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
THE WINDS INTENSIFY...MODELS CONSISTENTLY SHOW A SHEAR LINE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS-EASTERN
CUBA-JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS TO NORTHERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA BY 54-60 HRS. THIS THEN PERSISTS THROUGH 84-96 HRS. BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FEATURE...WITH
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CAYMAN ISLES TO RESULT
IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY...WHILE
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA-JAMAICA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS TO BELIZE...WHERE THE SHEAR LINE IS TO
FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.

THE POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA IS TO YIELD TO A BUILDING CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THE
RIDGE IS TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN USA...AND SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA LATER IN THE CYCLE.
AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS...EXPECTING A SUBSIDENCE CAP
TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN...WHILE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO-CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS ON THE DIVERGENT
SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS IS TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
MOST ACTIVE TO ASSOCIATE WITH TROPICAL WAVES (SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS).

FARTHER EAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN...TUTT AND TUTT LOWS REMAIN THE
MESO-SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES DOMINATING MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN. IN THIS FLOW...A TUTT LOW TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO RETROGRESS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TO
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS SYSTEM IS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW...AND
AS SUCH IT IS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/FILL WHILE PULLING TO THE
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE BASIN. EARLY IN THE CYCLE CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OTHER
ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH IS TO AFFECT NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WHERE IT IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY.

ANOTHER TUTT TO THE EAST ANCHORS ON A LOW TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHILE EXTENDING A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE TUTT
TO RETROGRESS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS TROUGH ALOFT MEANDERS
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. BY 60-72 HRS THE LOW IS TO SETTLE JUST
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE WILL SUSTAIN A FAIRLY DEEP MID
LEVEL REFLECTION...AND AS SUCH IT IS TO FAVOR DEEP LAYER
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. ACROSS THE LEEWARD/FRENCH-VIRGIN ISLES IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO RICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 48-60 HRS...AND
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY AT 60-84 HRS. ACROSS
NORTHERN VENEZUELA/ABC ISLANDS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA....WHERE THE MAXIMA IS TO
PEAK AT 20-45MM LATER IN THE CYCLE.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
47W 50W 52W 54W 56W 58W 60W TW
64W 65W 66W 68W 70W 72W 74W TW
85W 87W 89W 91W 93W 95W 97W EW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W IS TO ENTER FRENCH GUIANA THROUGH 30-36
HRS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. ACROSS SURINAME TO GUYANA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. AS IT
APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER IN THE CYCLE IT IS TO THEN FAVOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 64W LIES ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUTT. THIS LIMITS THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY ACROSS THE USVI TO PUERTO
RICO. AS IT ENTERS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 85W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS
NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS...WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...WHILE OVER BELIZE-GUATEMALA TO THE
SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Remains at 20% on 8 PM TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH.

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes and looking at the models and the latest this active twave... looks like 98L could cross
(should it verifies first!) near the level of ST Vincent / St Lucie even more morth and then once in the Caribbean (63/65W) turns north an increased by moving near or in vicinity of PR?! Reminds me a bit Omar scenario. Let's wait and see...

[Gustywind]

Here is a recap of the pretty "explosive" last Sunday with the aircrash and the convective activity all that day ( see article below)

Thunderstorms, and large accumulations of rain on the island

V. D. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 08.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189369.php

WATERSPOUTS. Several waterspouts were reported yesterday, including Petit-Havre and even a "tornado" in Anse-Bertrand. (Manon Daher)

Yellow, then orange. Weather vigilance level climbed yesterday afternoon as thunderstorms are amplified.


Tornado in Anse-Bertrand, Saint-Félix and Petit-Havre waterspouts... All day yesterday, weather phenomena have been reported in various parts of the Department. Weather France got wind, even if no device has spotted them, nor measured.

What weather France has found, on the other hand, is a resurgence of bad weather and storms on the archipelago. After announcing the return to the level of vigilance green Saturday night and the end of danger due to heavy rains, yellow vigilance was reactivated 16 hours yesterday. After a lull Saturday, new storms erupted on the North of Basse-Terre, in particular the area of the breasts, where he fell 70 mm (1) water in less than 6 hours. Ditto on the pointe de la Grande Vigie in Anse-Bertrand. In mid-afternoon, the storms were across Northern Grande-Terre.

80-100 MM OF WATER IN 6 HOURS

At 5: 30 yesterday, a new weather France newsletter announced switch to orange alertness for "heavy rain and thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity was further amplified in the course of the afternoon.

Rollups reached 80 to 100 mm in 6 hours on the northeast of Grande-Terre and Basse-Terre reliefs. And 40 mm in 3 hours on the pointoise region. Last night, it continued raining more or less strong everywhere, especially in the small cul-de-Sac marine and pointoise area.

These storms, weather France had provided them. But more localized and less intensity. As at the end of last week, altitude conditions were favorable to the stormy developments. And then there was no wind. The risk was that these storms are stagnating. And this is what happened.

According forecast, thunderstorm activity were to persist until first part of night, with locally significant accumulations of precipitation, of the order of 100 to 150 mm in 12 hours. An improvement was expected later in the day.

(1) 1 mm = 1 litre/m2

[cycloneye]

Given my untrained eyes and looking at the models and the latest this active twave... looks like 98L could cross
(should it verifies first!) near the level of ST Vincent / St Lucie even more morth and then once in the Caribbean (63/65W) turns north an increased by moving near or in vicinity of PR?! Reminds me a bit Omar scenario. Let's wait and see...

Gusty,regardless of what occurs with the active wave 98L in terms of developing or not,plenty of rain with some squalls will move thru. Let's keep watching to see how it all evolves in the next 24-48 hours.

[Gustywind]

At the same time always last Sunday, i forgot to mention you this minor incident, hopefully without any death and injuried people... thanks God

Mounted water: children rescued at Ravine hot

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189371.php

V.D. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 08.10.2012

CAUGHT IN THE TRAP. Trapped by the river in flood, the three children were brought safely on the shore by the lifesavers.


LAMENTIN.Weather and especially thunderstorms that erupted throughout the day yesterday, particularly on the North of Basse-Terre and the relief of the breasts (see page 6) caused a rising waters to Ravine hot/Lamentin in mid-afternoon. Three children, who were bathing, found themselves stranded on the Bank by the River in flood.

Alerted to 15 hours, firefighters raised the helicopter Dragon of civil security, which went to area after having flown two lifesavers (SAV) of the centre's main relief of les Abymes. Save precious time. The VAS were on square in 5 minutes, when the road, they would have had for a 40-minute ride.

Children - two sisters of 10 and 12 years and a 10-year-old boy, all three of Lamentin - were not lowered by the Dragon. The lifesavers went to look for them. They have stretched ropes across the River, and share what they call a hotline to life. Children were recovered one after the other. Forty-five minutes after the dispatching of the rescue, the rescue operation was over and the children unharmed.

[Gustywind]

Given my untrained eyes and looking at the models and the latest this active twave... looks like 98L could cross
(should it verifies first!) near the level of ST Vincent / St Lucie even more morth and then once in the Caribbean (63/65W) turns north an increased by moving near or in vicinity of PR?! Reminds me a bit Omar scenario. Let's wait and see...

Gusty,regardless of what occurs with the active wave 98L in terms of developing or not,plenty of rain with some squalls will move thru. Let's keep watching to see how it all evolves in the next 24-48 hours.

You're definitely right, all the islands chain should deal with juicy amount of water if this scenario verifies! Agree, all eyes should be now on 98L in the EC.

[Gustywind]

WEATHER FORECAST. The rain that night before an improvement

franceantilles.fr 09.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189417.php

The stormy risk increases during the evening and continues for the night. Heavy showers are therefore still expected. On the other hand, a temporary improvement seems to have emerged for the future. A return to the Green level of vigilance is therefore possible at the end of night if this is confirmed.

The stormy risk increases during the evening and continues for the night. Heavy showers are therefore still expected. Can expect rollups of rain of 50 to 100 litres per square metre in places, especially the Grands-Fonds in the Basse-Terre North passing through the region pointoise. A temporary improvement seems to have emerged for the future. A return to the Green level of vigilance is therefore possible at the end of night if this is confirmed.
Today, the atmosphere remained moist and unstable. The showers were generally more sparse but most have focused on the leading North Basse Terre of accruals that have reached 50 to 60 litres per m2 in 6 hours.

[Gustywind]

98L numbers on the increase... and gaining a bit latitud.

09/2345 UTC 9.5N 50.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
09/1800 UTC 8.5N 48.6W TOO WEAK 98L

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1015 PM AST TUE OCT 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RETROGRESS
TOWARD PR AND USVI AND MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. TUTT THEN
GETS ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROPICAL WAVE
ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAY EVENTUALLLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES WNW OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS.

&&

TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE WNW AT 15 TO 20 MPH STAYING MAINLY EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES. TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO KEEP SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM
OUR FCST AREA. IN ADDITION...SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE IMPACTED
BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KEEPING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY ASSYMETRIC WITH
LITTLE OR NO WEATHER ON THE WRN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...GFS HEIGHT
AND WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE INITIALLY MORE
SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE THAN TROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND MOST
OF ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER BEING REMOVED FAR FROM THE CENTER BUT
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT OFFER A BIG RELIEF TO OUR RAINFALL DEFICITS AND WILL MOST
LIKELY BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES DUE TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

[Macrocane]

Plenty of rain is expected in El Salvador from today through Thursday as a low pressure in the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua and the monsoon trough bring lots of moisture to the region. I will keep you updated.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. There is still uncertainty about how much effects from the Tropical Wave will be felt in Puerto Rico.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
537 AM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
RETROGRESS TOWARD THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THE
TUTT WILL GRADUALLY FILL...LIFT NORTH AND GENERALLY GET ABSORBED
BY A LARGER TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND COULD THEN AFFECT A PART OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED RETROGRESSING TUTT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOWER LEVEL REFLECTIONS WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST AND
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS...TO PRODUCE SOME
CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THEREAFTER...THE LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS FEATURE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THERE IS STILL A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND EVEN MORE SO ABOUT WHERE IT WOULD EVENTUALLY
TRACK IF IT DOES DEVELOP. IT APPEARS THAT A MORE ORGANIZED
TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGHT MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND CLOSER TO THE
LESSER ANTILLES...WHILE AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK SYSTEM COULD
AFFECT MORE OF THE EAST OR NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT THIS POINT...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS...IF
ANY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA. STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...RATHER FREQUENT PASSING SHRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH MAINLY VCSH FOR THE USVI/BVI AND POSSIBLY TJSJ.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST AT AROUND 10 KTS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR...CAUSING MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS...AND VCTS AT TJPS AND TJBQ...WHILE TSRA IS LIKELY
FOR TJMZ BETWEEN 10/17Z AND 10/21Z.

&&

.MARINE...EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS GENERALLY THE HIGHEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PULSES
OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 50 50 30
STT 88 79 89 80 / 40 50 50 40

[cycloneye]

8 AM Tropical Weather Outlook up to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI