Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest surface analysis of the Caribbean of Wave/Low Invest 98L.

[HurricaneFan]

It seems based on most forecasts it is expected to take a REALLY sharp recurve.
I mean At first it seems that all Islands at least as far West as PR would get a lot of Rain from this,but now the forecast doesn't seem so sure.

[cycloneye]

It seems based on most forecasts it is expected to take a REALLY sharp recurve.
I mean At first it seems that all Islands at least as far West as PR would get a lot of Rain from this,but now the forecast doesn't seem so sure.

The track will depend on developing more fast or slowly. But regardless of development,plenty of rain will fall. As NHC says,all who live in the islands should monitor the progress of this system.

[sweetpea]

I am really hoping this really goes Poof! Flying in to Puerto Rico on the 20th for a wk. It has been quite a while since I have been there. Looking forward to visiting family and vacationing without dodging a storm.

[cycloneye]

I am really hoping this really goes Poof! Flying in to Puerto Rico on the 20th for a wk. It has been quite a while since I have been there. Looking forward to visiting family and vacationing without dodging a storm.

Well,I think that your flight will go on and the vacation will go well unless this system begins to crawl thru the area.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION TODAY. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

http://www.metoffice.gov.tt/bulletin


Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service

Excerpt of an Information Bulletin issued...

INFORMATION BULLETIN #1

ACTIVE AND VIGOUROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED 880 KM EAST OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.

At 11.00 am today an area of low pressure associated with a very active Tropical Wave was centered approximately 880 km east of Trinidad and Tobago.

The wave is moving toward the west to west-northwest at 25 km/h. Environmental conditions are marginally favourable at this time for further development.

The leading periphery of the wave is forecast to begin affecting Trinidad and Tobago tomorrow –Thursday 11th October. Showery activity in varying intensities with resultant street/flash flooding and gusty winds may accompany the passage of this Tropical Wave.

All interests in Trinidad and Tobago are asked to regard the possibility of these adverse weather conditions seriously and adopt measures which would safeguard lives and property and pay close attention to information being issued by the Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service.

WE STRONGLY UNDERSCORE THAT TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO IS NOT UNDER ANY TROPICAL STORM THREAT, WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME.

The Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service is closely monitoring weather conditions and will issue another bulletin at 6:00 pm or sooner if the situation warrants.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
253 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER REGIME
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT EXPECTED TO ALIGN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER
USVI AND PUERTO RICO BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS FEATURE
WILL COMBINE WITH ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS TO
PRODUCE PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS USVI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. IN FACT...MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
PRONOUNCED FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TUTT IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER
THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER TO THE WEST AND A
RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS...IF ANY...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT OVERALL...A WETTER/ACTIVE PATTERN COULD BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FREQUENT PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTN RANGE OF PR AND MOVE WEST NORTHWEST
TO THE COASTAL MUNICIPALITIES. MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG NXT 24
HRS BUT SHRA/ISOLD WILL AFFECT LOCAL FLYING AREA TIL AT LEAST
10/22Z CAUSING PRODS OF MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WITH BRIEF SFC WND GUSTS. .
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO CAUSE LOW CIG/VSBY WITH MTN TOP OBSCR
TIL 10/22Z. EXCPT FOR PASSING SHRA OVR COASTAL WATERS...EXPCT DECR
CLDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVR LAND AFT 10/22Z AND DURG OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WX IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 30 30 30 30
STT 80 89 80 89 / 30 30 40 40

[Macrocane]

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

DISCUSSION FROM OCT 10/00 UTC: MODELS INITIALIZE A POLAR TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN USA-WESTERN ATLANTIC. THROUGH DAY 03
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MEANDER EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC-WHILE BASE IS TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS THIS IS TO
SUSTAIN A POLAR FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN USA/WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HRS. BY 72
HRS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN USA...THE
FRONT IS TO MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH AXIS
WEST ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
RIDGE IS TO ALSO FAVOR A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 20-25KT ACROSS
THE BAHAMAS-CUBA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA-SOUTHERN MEXICO. FURTHERMORE...THIS IS TO TRIGGER A SHEAR
LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA TO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BY 42/48 HRS...THERE IT IS TO MEANDER THROUGH
72/78 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE THE TRAILING END OF THE SHEAR LINE
IS TO RETROGRESS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS/SOUTHERN BELIZE... WHILE MAIN AXIS REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS/CENTRAL CUBA. AS THE NORTHERLIES ESTABLISH ACROSS
THE GULF/WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THEY ARE TO ENHANCE TOPOGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-NORTHERN HONDURAS. OVER
SOUTHERN MEXICO EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM/DAY TO AFFECT NORTHERN CHIAPAS-TABASCO-CAMPECHE THROUGH
60-72 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN HONDURAS TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY. BY 72-84
HRS THE MAXIMA IS TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM. SHEAR LINE CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS INTO THIS AREA...THIS IS THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
20-40MM BY 72-84 HRS. ACROSS EASTERN/CENTRAL CUBA-JAMAICA
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY...TO GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER IN THE CYCLE. OTHER
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS/NICARAGUA IS TO RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY.

THE POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA IS TO YIELD TO A BUILDING CELL
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. AT MID/UPPER LEVELS THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN USA...AND SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN/NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA BY 48-72 HRS. AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS...
EXPECTING A SUBSIDENCE CAP TO GRADUALLY ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN...LEADING TO GRADUAL EROSION OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE. CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MEXICO-CENTRAL AMERICA ARE TO REMAIN ON
THE DIVERGENT SIDE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT THROUGH 66-72 HRS. THIS IS
TO VENT DEEP CONVECTION...WITH MOST ACTIVE TO ASSOCIATE WITH
TROPICAL WAVES (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).

A WANING TUTT LOW IS INITIALIZED OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
AXIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN/FILL AS IT SHEARS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLOMBIA/PANAMA EARLY IN THE CYCLE. MEANWHILE...IT IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER
COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY.

TUTT ALOFT REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH CLOSED LOW SLOWLY RELOCATING ALONG THIS
AXIS TOWARDS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PER MODEL GUIDANCE...THE TUTT
ALOFT IS TO ALIGN FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO NORTHERN VENEZUELA EARLY IN THE CYCLE...WHERE IT IS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 54-60 HRS. AS IT PERSISTS...CLOSED LOW IS TO
MEANDER SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TO GRADUALLY SETTLE
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO/SAINT CROIX BY 66-72 HRS. IT THEN QUICKLY
WEAKENS/WANES OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER
TO THE WEST AND A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE ESTABLISHES TO
THE EAST. AS THE TUTT MEANDERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...MODELS
GENERALLY FAVOR DEEP LAYER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WITH
INSTABILITY TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW SETTLES TO THE SOUTH. ACROSS THE
LEEWARD/FRENCH-VIRGIN ISLES IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO RICO
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY
THROUGH 36 HRS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY AT
36-60 HRS. ACROSS NORTHERN VENEZUELA/ABC ISLANDS...AS IT INTERACTS
WITH THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE IS
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST VENEZUELA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA....WHERE
THE MAXIMA IS TO PEAK AT 20-45MM.

PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC...FORECAST
FROM 00UTC.

INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
52W 54W 56W 58W 60W 62W 64 TW
67W 69W 71W 73W 75W 77W 79W TW
89W 91W 93W 95W 97W 100W 103W EW

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 52W IS TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE GUIANAS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. AS IT APPROACHES THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS IS TO
INTERACT WITH WANING TUTT TO THE WEST...FAVORING A SURGE IN
ACTIVITY. ACROSS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLANDS WE NOW EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 25-50MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-150MM/DAY. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS WAVE FOR POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT.

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W ENTERS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY IN
THE CYCLE. AS IT REMAINS ON THE CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE TUTT ALOFT
ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE REMAINS SPARSE AND ILL ORGANIZED. AS A
RESULT WE ONLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY. ACROSS JAMAICA IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER NORTHWEST
VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY BY 48-72 HRS.

AN EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 89W IS ENHANCING ITCZ RELATED CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR/GUATEMALA. THIS IS TO SPREAD WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO WHERE IT IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. THROUGH 48-60
HRS MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 40-80MM WHILE SPREADING ACROSS OAXACA
TO GUERRERO/CENTRAL MEXICO.

SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
ALVAREZ...ONAMET (REPUBLICA DOMINICANA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[Gustywind]

WEATHER FORECAST. Back to green before the arrival of a new tropical wave
franceantilles.fr 10.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189417.php


The air mass becomes less unstable with the arrival of a drier air, limiting the stormy developments. However, this lull is short-lived because new showers are expected in the run-up to an active tropical wave.

The air mass becomes less unstable with the arrival of a drier air, limiting the stormy developments. Showers are still possible, but expected rollups should not reach important thresholds. However, this lull is short-lived because vows are expected to approach an active tropical wave, likely resulting in a new passage in yellow vigilance during the next 24 hours.
Accumulations of rain were important on the duration of the episode from last Sunday:
-150 to 200 litres per m2 on terrain and teats, and the pointe Northern Grande-Terre on the side of Anse-Bertrand.
-100 to 120 litres per m2 on great funds, Abymes, agglomeration pointoise, as well as the region of Capesterre-Belle-Eau.
-Less than 10 litres per m2 on the downwind side between Basseterre and La Cote Sous le Vent.
Note a very marked electrical activity and gusty winds at 65 km/h on la Désirade.

[msbee]

Gusty and Luis
best guesstimate of what we can expect and when??
Thanks

[cycloneye]

Gusty and Luis
best guesstimate of what we can expect and when??
Thanks

We still have to wait until it gets closer to the islands to see if it is going to start to develop or not and how it will be moving in terms of the track and speed. I think things will be more clear on both sometime on thursday (Hopefully)

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS EVENING...AND REPORTS FROM BUOYS WELL NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER INDICATE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN
SOME OF THE HEAVIER SQUALLS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
LARGE DISTURBANCE WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT LOW JUST WEST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RETROGRESS TOWARD PR OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS. TUTT WILL
THEN FILL SAT AND GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROF OVR THE WRN ATLC.
INVEST 98L MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY OVR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS KEEPING THE RISK OF DAILY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. TROPICAL
WAVE ESE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FCST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW
AROUND 15 MPH OVR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS REACHING ST. LUCIA BY
FRI AFTERNOON. LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH WIND SHEAR
UPWARDS OF 20KT OVR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AFFECTING THIS WAVE WHICH
WILL LIKELY HINDER ANY SIG DEVELOPMENT. THE 00Z EARLY TRACK CYCLE
GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE
GFS AND GFES RH AND WIND FIELDS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A HIGHLY
ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY SUBTROPICAL WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND VERY
LITTLE WEATHER ON ITS WRN SEMICIRCLE. THE 21Z SREF ARE THE ONLY
ONES SUGGESTING GOOD RAINS FOR ERN PR AND THE USVI WHILE THE MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF...GFS AND GFES MEAN KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO
THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. UNLESS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF PR
AND INTO THE DOM REPUBLIC SIGNIFICANT RAINS APPEAR UNLIKELY ATTM.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. All eyes continue to be on what will invest 98L do in the next 24-48 hours so stay tuned.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
557 AM AST THU OCT 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER
REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AND BE
NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POSSIBLY
AFFECTING PART OF THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TUTT REMAINS ALIGNED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME
AND WILL SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST...AS EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW MEANDERS
OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN PUERTO RICO TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TUTT WILL COMBINE WITH MOIST
AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND LOCAL EFFECTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...TO
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. FOR
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN A GOOD LOCATION
TO AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AN "OVERALL" DRIER AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO ENCOMPASS THE FA AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
BIT LESS COVERAGE OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAN
TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND BEYOND...THE LOCAL WEATHER
FORECAST WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE DISTURBANCE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE
CLOSELY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND ALTHOUGH WE ARE 24 HOURS
CLOSER TO THE EVENT...THERE REMAINS A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED.
NHC INDICATES THAT THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH...IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE WHAT EFFECTS THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL HAVE ON THE LOCAL AREA...IT APPEARS AT THIS
POINT...THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WOULD BE OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AND NOT ETCHED IN STONE.
ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PASSING SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST
ACROSS THE FLYING AREA. SOME VCSH ARE EXPECTED NEAR TJSJ...TIST
AND TISX THIS MORNING. LLVL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST TODAY...AT
AROUND 15 KTS. SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF PR BTWN 11/17 AND 11/21Z. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS NEAR TJMZ AND
TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
6 FEET OR LESS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. PULSES
OF NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES THROUGH TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.
SMALL BOAT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 79 / 50 40 40 40
STT 89 80 89 80 / 40 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

This morning's discussion of 98L by Rob of Crownweather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

Invest 98L Located Just East Of The Windward Islands & Barbados:
Of more concern is Invest 98L which is located about 400 miles to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is fairly robust and continues to become better organized. Additionally, tropical storm force winds are occurring on the north side of the circulation and this system has a fairly good chance of becoming a tropical storm either today or at the latest on Friday. So, the Canadian model may have been on something a couple of days ago and I should have given it more weight.

Invest 98L is expected to track very near Barbados later this afternoon or this evening and then across the Windward Islands late tonight into Friday morning. Residents and vacationers on Barbados and in the Windward Islands should be prepared for tropical storm conditions with wind gusts to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon through tonight and into Friday. Since this is a pretty large system, much of the Leeward Islands will also be affected by strong winds of up to 40 to 50 mph, heavy rainfall and very rough seas from this afternoon right into Friday.

Once Invest 98L is in the eastern Caribbean on Friday it is expected to turn sharply northwestward and track across while intensifying to a moderate to strong tropical storm. I think a track right over Puerto Rico seems plausible on Saturday with tropical storm conditions likely across Puerto Rico and the US/British Virgin Island on Friday night through Saturday.

Once this system is past Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands it is forecast to turn north and north-northeastward and potentially intensify into a hurricane and possibly impact Bermuda right around Tuesday.

[Gustywind]

The wreck of the aircraft recovered yesterday

V.D. France-Antilles Guadeloupe 10.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189640.php

Pieces of the wreckage of the aircraft that crashed Sunday at the throat were recovered by the boat of lighthouses and beacons. (Roberto Bhandiwad)

Late morning yesterday, the boat of lighthouses and beacons - Kahouanne based in Fouillole - was on the site of the crash of the aircraft off the coast of pointe de la Verdure, in the throat. It was to recover the wreck of the aircraft, almost entirely submerged in near 5 or 6 metres of bottom, 300 metres from the shore. A wreck into several pieces, thrown by crane, with the assistance of divers from the marine brigade of Pointe-à-Pitre, and reduced to the ground to end of expertise.

It will be for the gendarmerie brigade of air transport (aviation), responsible of the technical part of the investigation, determine the causes of this accident, which claimed the lives of 64 driver, Albert Ukena, and made a serious casualty, Laurent Talvason, 42 years old. The aircraft type ULM crashed at sea in the late morning Sunday, just after take-off from the beach of the Canella Beach (our Monday edition). The hypothesis of a mechanical incident is being considered, but to confirm. The autopsy of the victim must take place today. It will determine if Albert Ukena died following the shock or even if he drowned.

[cycloneye]

Message from St Lucia on stormcarib.com.


•From: Susan Beckwith <suebeckwith123 at gmail.com>
•Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2012 09:30:38 -0400




Last night I was woken up by some pretty strong winds and heavy rain, it made such a noise that my husband and I both jumped out of bed wondering what on earth was going on. The wind appeared to be coming from the front of the house ( North) whereas it normally comes from the East. It has rained constantly since and it is not pleasant out there.



I am keeping an eye on Invest 98L as it approaches us, as it is a pretty big depression, I guess we are already experiencing its early effects.



Take care,



Sue

[cycloneye]

12z Surface Analysis. It looks like the low pressure will enter the Eastern Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

2 PM Tropical Weather Outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.