ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[ozonepete]

That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

Some weak El Nino winters have been very cold in the E US: examples 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Very cold weak El Ninos are most favored if there is also a -NAO and +PDO in DJF. The -PDO is quite stubborn right now and odds favor it staying negative into winter. But that could still change. The NAO for winter is still anyone's guess. I guess there's now some doubt whether or not we'll get back into weak El Nino territory. I'm thinking yes but we'll have to see.

Thanks, Larry. Although I thought those negative NAOs were not proven to be related to the weak El Ninos that were going on. The relationship is pretty tenuous, right? What's always been interesting to me is that here in the northeast we have had some of our coldest winters in strong La Nina where the NAO was persistently way below normal. Regardless, we pretty much have to have a predominately negative NAO here to have a below normal winter.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/9/12 Update

Nino 3.4 continues to go down as in this update is down to +0.1C,down from +0.2C that was last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

Some weak El Nino winters have been very cold in the E US: examples 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Very cold weak El Ninos are most favored if there is also a -NAO and +PDO in DJF. The -PDO is quite stubborn right now and odds favor it staying negative into winter. But that could still change. The NAO for winter is still anyone's guess. I guess there's now some doubt whether or not we'll get back into weak El Nino territory. I'm thinking yes but we'll have to see.

1976-1977 and 1977-1978 were some of the coldest winters in America. NAO plays a huge role in winter. A negative NAO being cooler, while positive NAO being warmer. I would also look at Pacific North America (PNA).

[LarryWx]

That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

Some weak El Nino winters have been very cold in the E US: examples 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Very cold weak El Ninos are most favored if there is also a -NAO and +PDO in DJF. The -PDO is quite stubborn right now and odds favor it staying negative into winter. But that could still change. The NAO for winter is still anyone's guess. I guess there's now some doubt whether or not we'll get back into weak El Nino territory. I'm thinking yes but we'll have to see.

Thanks, Larry. Although I thought those negative NAOs were not proven to be related to the weak El Ninos that were going on. The relationship is pretty tenuous, right? What's always been interesting to me is that here in the northeast we have had some of our coldest winters in strong La Nina where the NAO was persistently way below normal. Regardless, we pretty much have to have a predominately negative NAO here to have a below normal winter.

You're welcome. Based on my own research, I've determined that there is a partial correlation of weak El Nino peaks and -NAO averaged over DJF. It is far from a perfect correlation, but there seems to be a better than avg. chance for a -NAO as well as a +PDO when there is a weak Nino peak in fall or winter. Also, the number of solid -NAO/solid +PDO winters during weak Ninos has been a good bit larger than the # of solid +NAO/solid -PDO winters.

At this point and assuming we get back into weak Nino territory (which I favor), I have to favor to some extent a -NAO averaged over DJF. However, I favor a -PDO as of now due to the persistent strong -PDO of recent months. (It isn't as jumpy as the NAO month to month). That would need to rise quite a bit by November for me to change my mind.

When a weak Nino fall/winter peak is accompanied by a -NAO and +PDO in DJF, the winters tend to be some of the coldest in much of the E US.

[LarryWx]

That doesn't mean we won't have very unusual weather events in the U.S. this winter, just that they won't likely be because of this ENSO-neutral - weak El Nino.

Some weak El Nino winters have been very cold in the E US: examples 1969-70, 1976-7, and 1977-8. Very cold weak El Ninos are most favored if there is also a -NAO and +PDO in DJF. The -PDO is quite stubborn right now and odds favor it staying negative into winter. But that could still change. The NAO for winter is still anyone's guess. I guess there's now some doubt whether or not we'll get back into weak El Nino territory. I'm thinking yes but we'll have to see.

1976-1977 and 1977-1978 were some of the coldest winters in America. NAO plays a huge role in winter. A negative NAO being cooler, while positive NAO being warmer. I would also look at Pacific North America (PNA).

I agree 100% about the NAO. Also, I agree about the PNA, which is partially correlated with the PDO
SST pattern. When there is a weak El Nino along with a -NAO and a +PDO, the odds of a very cold eastern U.S. winter are way above average.

[cycloneye]

Australian's update at 10/9/12

The Aussies that were a little more bullish about El Nino are now retreating back from it.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Pacific eases further away from El Niño thresholds

Issued on Tuesday 9 October | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The chance of El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced over the past fortnight. The tropical Pacific continued its retreat from El Niño thresholds for the second consecutive fortnight (i.e., ocean temperatures cooled), remaining within the neutral range (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Other ENSO indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and tropical cloud patterns have persisted at neutral levels since late July.

Given the rate of ocean cooling, and the continued neutral conditions in the atmosphere, the chance of an El Niño developing in 2012 has reduced further over the past fortnight. However, some risk still remains while the trade winds in the western Pacific continue to be weaker than normal. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology have increased their chances of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining at neutral levels, though still warmer than average, for the remainder of 2012.

[Cyclenall]

I like these turn of events, this is what I wanted. Maybe I'll get at least one thing right this year after all, I said "El Nino Cancel" months ago. The spectacular value would have been 0.0ºC but I'll take +0.1ºC for Nino 3.4.

I was also hoping for the other values to go lower as well and they all did this update cycle:

Nino 4: +0.3ºC
Nino 3.4: +0.1ºC
Nino 3: -0.1ºC
Nino 1+2: -0.1ºC

Pretty interesting. I know they went lower because of the little graphic but what were the values last week?

[cycloneye]

I like these turn of events, this is what I wanted. Maybe I'll get at least one thing right this year after all, I said "El Nino Cancel" months ago. The spectacular value would have been 0.0ºC but I'll take +0.1ºC for Nino 3.4.

I was also hoping for the other values to go lower as well and they all did this update cycle:

Nino 4: +0.3ºC
Nino 3.4: +0.1ºC
Nino 3: -0.1ºC
Nino 1+2: -0.1ºC

Pretty interesting. I know they went lower because of the little graphic but what were the values last week?

This was my post about last week's update on page 132.

Nino 3.4 cools down again, this time to +0.2C. That is down from +0.3C that was at last week's update. The October CPC update will be released on the 4th and we will see if El Nino is declared officially or not.But I suspect that they will wait another month to see how things evolve.

[Kingarabian]

I really wanted some nice El-Nino with some nice East Pacific fish.

[Ntxw]

3 weeks of cooling is now a much bigger factor. The western subsurface warm pool has had little advancement the past two weeks to the east. If we do get neutral conditions, the teleconnections will play a major role in winter since there won't be a defined enso signal as forcing and make winter forecasting more challenging if this is the case.

[Cyclenall]

I want to know the previous values for Nino 4, 3, and 1+2 to compare to these new numbers.

[LarryWx]

I want to know the previous values for Nino 4, 3, and 1+2 to compare to these new numbers.

This will tell you: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for

[Kingarabian]

Didn't someone on here say that the CPC compiles the SST data from a week or so back? Like if they report cooling, it doesn't necessarily mean last week cooled right?

[LarryWx]

Didn't someone on here say that the CPC compiles the SST data from a week or so back? Like if they report cooling, it doesn't necessarily mean last week cooled right?

It does mean that the average of the last calendar week cooled vs. the avg. of the prior cal. week. However, it doesn't necessarily mean that it cooled, say, over the last half of the last week.

[NDG]

So far this week no significant warming or cooling has taken place in Nino 3.4
Next update should stay near +.1 deg C



SOI has stayed positive in its 30 day average during at least the last 30 days and the 90 day average has continued to go up, now up to -.88
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

How more neutral can the ENSO currently be?
Now I am starting to doubt if it will ever get to an official weak El Nino phase later this Fall or Winter.

[Kingarabian]

So far this week no significant warming or cooling has taken place in Nino 3.4
Next update should stay near +.1 deg C

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SOI has stayed positive in its 30 day average during at least the last 30 days and the 90 day average has continued to go up, now up to -.88
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seaso ... soivalues/

How more neutral can the ENSO currently be?
Now I am starting to doubt if it will ever get to an official weak El Nino phase later this Fall or Winter.

While the warming is not that deep, the -PDO appears to finally be losing it's grip... compared to the same day last month.

9/10/12

[Ntxw]

I know it looks bad now, but the nino is not dead. Until that warm pool is gone from it's current location the sub-surface is not showing neutral or La Nina, it is still a Nino formation. Until that is gone (it's growing in fact) declaring it dead is not wise. Sure anything more than a weak Nino may have taken a hit, but I doubt anything less than a weak Nino is unlikely from now until spring.

We are one MJO burst away from runaway warming at the surface especially with the PDO rising. There will be a big MJO by the second half of this month, if it falters then that may be the last chance for it to get going. Until then it's pretty much anomalous surface cooling in the eastern basin.

[Kingarabian]

If El-Nino does not develop...then well, I'm just going to have to donate to S2K.

[Ntxw]

It's possible we might see warming back in tomorrow's update. There is 1c+ anomalies now present within 3.4 and the subsurface continues to warm significantly due to unusual downwelling. Is this the ghost of Nino's past? Or resurrection? We'll find out soon. Cold PDO continues to get broken down off the coast of NA.

[Ntxw]

It's possible we might see warming back in tomorrow's update

Nope looks like late week warming appears to not have been enough according to CPC graph.