ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion
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- Hurricane Alexis
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Does anyone think it survives and makes it to Florida? Very slim chance though.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Interesting little system, defying intensity and track forecasts...of course not as much as some of her previous mates.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hurricane Alexis wrote:Does anyone think it survives and makes it to Florida? Very slim chance though.
I think dry and air and shear would destroy it before it ever got to South Florida.
Might slip through Cuba to NW Carib as just a remnant low but chances for Florida are indeed, very slim.
Now, if it lingered in the NW Carib for a while, then maybe it could eventually go North or NE towards Florida but I haven't seen that anywhere so probably a bit ridiculous
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
My posts are just my opinion and are most likely not backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Bottom line is that I am just expressing my opinion!!!
- wxman57
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SW winds over 50 kts aloft over Patty now. Recon on the way, but I don't think they'll find TS winds. Strong shear is taking its toll. As is evidence by the NNE winds north of the center, it's still attached to the cold front, too:
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not much to look at, as shear has really taken its toll. Highest FL wind plane has found was about 28-30 kts. Surface winds generally 15-25 kts, though the plane somehow managed to find SFMR winds nearly twice the FL wind well north of the weak low center. They look quite suspect. I don't know what's up with the SFMR winds over the last year or two. So many times we see FL winds of 20-25 kts and SFMR winds of 40kts or more. Doesn't make sense. Cold front extends right down to Patty and through the southeastern Bahamas. Dew points near 70 in the Bahamas and into the 60s in northern Cuba.
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Not much to look at, as shear has really taken its toll. Highest FL wind plane has found was about 28-30 kts. Surface winds generally 15-25 kts, though the plane somehow managed to find SFMR winds nearly twice the FL wind well north of the weak low center. They look quite suspect. I don't know what's up with the SFMR winds over the last year or two. So many times we see FL winds of 20-25 kts and SFMR winds of 40kts or more. Doesn't make sense. Cold front extends right down to Patty and through the southeastern Bahamas. Dew points near 70 in the Bahamas and into the 60s in northern Cuba.
http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/Patty2.gif
Those high SFMR winds could just be the upper-level wind shear.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
completely exposed now. ..decapitation a la Chris a few years back...RIP Patty...
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not a TS now by any stretch of the imagination. Remnant low - and still attached to the cold front:
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I don't know why this was ever named to begin with. I thought maybe because of its extremely short life it would have been passed by the NHC. Its track is very odd as well, moving SW all the way into the Caribbean?
Is recon even high enough to sample that while trying to get a sense of a TC's strength? I never thought of that factor before and its never come up in my years of tracking tropical cyclones.
CrazyC83 wrote:Those high SFMR winds could just be the upper-level wind shear.
Is recon even high enough to sample that while trying to get a sense of a TC's strength? I never thought of that factor before and its never come up in my years of tracking tropical cyclones.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion
.PATTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Tropical Depression - Discussion
ROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0233.shtml
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162012
1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012
...PATTY MOVING LITTLE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 72.1W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ENE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0233.shtml
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Re: ATL: PATTY - Remnants - Discussion
See you in 2018, Patty.
...Patty no longer a tropical cyclone...
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