Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

San Juan NWS local Statement.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
628 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE PUERTO RICO COASTAL WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL PUERTO RICO INCLUDING
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE
WATER ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN
EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 6 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.2 WEST. THIS WAS ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 140 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 320 DEGREES AT
9 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR
OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO
TODAY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND. STRONGLY
CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO SO IF
ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
713 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE MONA PASSAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL WAS MOVING NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING AND A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR
OR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST NHC TRACK HAS THE CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING
VERY NEAR OR ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAFAEL IS STILL NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND
IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES. THIS MEANS THAT SOME ADDITIONAL
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK COULD STILL OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. RAIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FROM EAST SOUTHEAST TO WEST NORTHWEST TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED. FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND OVER PUERTO RICO SUNDAY...AS RAFAEL BEGINS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE LOCAL REGION AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST.

CURRENTLY...THE MAIN IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...WITH SECONDARY IMPACTS BEING INCREASING
WINDS AND SEAS...RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SURF.

ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR OR EVEN LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS IN INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ELSEWHERE...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY TODAY...
WITH MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN INCREASING BANDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
TODAY...AS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL MOVES CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF
SHORE WATERS AND THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE EARLY RAINFALL
ESTIMATE FOR THESE AREAS IS GENERALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE...THESE NUMBERS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. ALSO...GIVEN THE
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE
OF RAIN BANDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...AND AN EARLY ESTIMATE FOR THESE AREAS IS 1 TO 3
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 88 78 / 80 80 80 30
STT 87 79 88 80 / 80 80 80 50

[cycloneye]

This rundown on how will the conditions be in Puerto Rico/Virgin Islands is made by TV met Ada Monzon of TV11 Univision.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Analysis of the Rafael storm (8 am, October 13)TROPICAL storm watch for PR TROPICAL storm warning for Virgin IslandsSummary: Rafael is slow in his translation and its center of low pressure will be closest to PR between tonight and Sunday. Rain event can be significant tomorrow and Monday associated with the tail of Rafael.

FORECAST today: take advantage of the morning... with semisoleado time, some intermittent rains, and occasional breeze from the North. In the afternoon, they can quickly develop downpours or locally intense thunderstorm with possibility of local flooding (similar to the pattern that we have had for several days). Exit calm but Rafael is pending for any changes to this forecast, and the progress of the storm. Every 3 hours there is new update of data, and the use of RADAR and satellite models is more important at this stage.

RAFAEL Center: Rafael has resisted to move much in the early morning hours. We woke up and it is almost in the same place yesterday, when already this time should have been on the Anegada passage. According to the forecast set, it will pass over the Virgin Islands, or between Vieques and Culebra-Islas Virgin, at night, and at dawn on Sunday will be about 60-100 miles northeast of San Juan.

RAINS of RAFAEL: We certainly depend on that queue for the formation of rain, because there is less rainfall in the Center. The Virgin Islands are under the supervision of flash floods. PR does not have such a bulletin because it has not rained enough, and unless we do not see the threat of that queue on PR or the development of heavy rains because the Center was strengthened, will not be issued. You have to see how it develops the phenomenon between today and tomorrow, but generally with phenomena that come to the northeast of PR, once you pass the Center, it is that we have rain.

Wind: Gentle breeze today in the north-northeast, and between this evening, night and morning can increase 15-25 mph with higher gusts, in the order of 30-40 mph, depending on whether we get bands of thunderstorm, especially in the eastern half of the island.

SWELL: In the Atlantic, Anegada and Caribbean there is danger of squalls, strong gusts winds and waves of 10-12'. Craft in exposed areas must be protected and in port.

[msbee]

gloomy dark skies, light drizzle at this time on SXM.
Not much wind
I can see a heavier squall coming in from the South.
Overnight my little backyard rain gauge showed 2.5 inches of rain has fallen already.

[msbee]

SxmDCOMM - TS Rafael ADVISORY #3 UPDATE on Current Situation; Conditions Expectedto Further Deteriorate; Tropical Storm Warning Remains in Effect

From: Roddy Heyliger <roddyheyliger at gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 09:36:37 -0400

News Release – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST MEDIA ADVISORY

Department of Communication (DCOMM), Ennia Bldg., Longwall Rd., Philipsburg, Sint Maarten W.I. Tel. +1 721 543-1162, 542-4119, Fax: 543-1169; Email: gis at sintmaarten.net; Website: http://www.sintmaartengov.org


For Immediate Release: Saturday, October 13, 2012/N320-Advisory #3 – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST MEDIA ADVISORY

Tropical Storm Rafael; Country remains a Tropical Storm Warning; Public advised to monitor progress of storm

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – Tropical Storm (TS) Rafael, the 17th storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season continues its slow move to the West up the island chain towards the Virgin Islands.
Weather conditions will continue to deteriorate during the course of Saturday

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the country according to the Meteorological Department of Curacao (MDC).
A Tropical Storm Warning means that storm conditions are expected within 36 hours somewhere within the warning area. Residents are advised to monitor radio broadcasts and weather reports for updates.

Overnight and into early Saturday morning, Ministry VROMI (ESF-3), Police (ESF-5) along with the Fire Department (ESF-4) closed certain roads that were flooded, however they have been re-opened. When it becomes necessary, flood prone roads will be closed temporarily until street flooding subsides.

Construction works have been taking place at the Rolandus Channel near Bobby’s Marina for a number of months. However, the channel is in full use to allow floods waters to flow towards the sea.

Water levels in the Fresh and Salt Ponds have been at a low level prior to the storm and both ponds can accommodate a significant amount of rainwater which will be pumped into the Rolandus Channel and allowed to flow into the sea via the Great Bay Channel in order to avoid any overflow due to heavy and continuous rainfall.

According to the MDC 8.00am advisory, TS Rafael is forecasted to pass approximately 120 miles West of Sint Maarten on Saturday evening as a moderate tropical storm.

Residents are advised to secure loose items in and around their yards and businesses as a precautionary measure; garbage pails should also be properly secured.

MDC says impact on local conditions from TS Rafael could be strong to near gale force winds with possible gusts to tropical storm force (40 to 50 miles per hour) on Saturday. Seas will be moderate to very rough on Saturday with waves between eight to 12 feet.

MDC says rainfall is expected to be heavy with occasional thunderstorms; three to five inches of rainfall is likely in some locations leading to street flooding in low lying areas.

Motorists are advised to exercise caution while driving in low lying areas which could flood – street flooding - due to heavy and persistent rainfall.

Motorists driving near hillsides are also asked to exercise caution with respect to possible rock falls.

TS Rafael at 8.00am was approximately 165 miles South-Southeast of St. Croix or 185 miles South-Southwest of Sint Maarten, and moving Northwest at 9 miles per hour; highest wind speeds are near 40 miles per hour with higher gusts. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles to the Southeast of the center.

The 10 Emergency Support Functions (ESFs) that form the country’s’ disaster management organization are on alert and closely monitoring current conditions. Some ESFs have been active in taking measures and responding to situations.
The ESFs are: GEBE Utility Company, Telem Telecommunications, Public Works Dept., Fire Dept., Police, Ministry of Public Health and Social Development, Dept of Communications, Ministry of General Affairs, and the Ministry of Tourism, Economy, Transportation and Telecommunications.

[cycloneye]

Flood Watch issued for all of Puerto Rico

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
947 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

PRZ001>013-132215-
/O.EXA.TJSJ.FF.A.0007.000000T0000Z-121014T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
INCLUDING THE MUNICIPALITIES AND/OR ISLANDS OF...SAN JUAN...
CAROLINA...FAJARDO...HUMACAO...GUAYAMA...ARROYO...YABUCOA...
SALINAS...COCO...CAGUAS...ARECIBO...VEGA BAJA...DORADO...COAMO...
COROZAL...AIBONITO...VILLALBA...JAYUYA...PONCE...AGUADILLA...
ISABELA...HATILLO...QUEBRADILLAS...UTUADO...SABANA GRANDE...LARES...
ADJUNTAS...HORMIGUEROS...MOCA...AGUADA...LUYANDO...CABO ROJO...
LAJAS...CULEBRA...ESPERANZA
947 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING VIEQUES
AND CULEBRA.

* THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING

* BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THROUGH LATE TODAY...
BUT ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...AS TROPICAL
STORM RAFAEL MOVES CLOSER ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THE
FOCUS OF THE RAIN WILL CHANGE ON SUNDAY...AS RAFAEL MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA AND THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...RESULTING
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERING ACROSS SOUTHERN PUERTO
RICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...
AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.

&&

$$

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest from our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe. Looks like some areas received nice amounts of water (see below). We continue to monitor closely the situation as the rain could be a main problem.

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

09 H 45, the level of vigilance is: ORANGE for strong rains/thunderstorms, be careful!
The ex-wave n ° 37, now Tropical Storml Rafael, spans all of the Antillean arc. Its Center is located in Caribbean Sea. Our archipelago should remain on the margins of the winds force storm.
The Guadeloupe archipelago is still well watered. Currently, the intensity of rainfall is moderate to fairly high on la Désirade (70 mm in 3 hours), St-François and the mold where the showers at times parade through a stream of South-South-East.
During the next 3 hours, little change time will remain often wet with very brief lulls, but also of the most intense and stormy episodes.
(South-East) wind undergoes the same variations, blowing between 30 km/h and 40 km/h in average wind (or even 50 mph on exposed capes) and gusting to 70/80 km/h.
These observations and their immediate evolution will fund day at 12: 40.

[abajan]

A cool, breezy and generally overcast day in Barbados with light rain from time to time. But what is most alarming is the sea on the south coast. Not only is it rough but it's also unusually high. Rockley beach has disappeared!

[Gustywind]

Friends, what's up the air of the Carib since last Sunday? Given a friend from ST Thomas, another aircrash has occured but this time in the USVI . That's awfull!!!! This is news is from the weather site of Stormcarib



Missing Pilot USVI
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/stthomas.shtml


•From: "Jane Higgins" <jhigginswear at islands.vi>
•Date: Sat, 13 Oct 2012 12:02:04 -0400



Jane Higgins Northwest side of St Thomas


From: Kurtz, Scott
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2012 2:08 PM
To: Weather Tidbits
Subject: 3 missing, 1 dead in small plane carsh in USVI ...




BC-CB--US Virgin Islands-Plane Crash,119

3 missing, 1 dead in small plane crash in USVI

Eds: APNewsNow.

CHARLOTTE AMALIE, U.S. Virgin Islands (AP) -- At least three

people are missing and one person has died after a small plane that

was delivering newspapers went down in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The interim executive director for the island's Port Authority

says the plane went down just eight miles (13 kilometers) south of

the airport in St. Thomas. David Mapp said in a phone interview

Saturday that the plane had been delivering newspapers to the

island of St. Croix and was returning to St. Thomas.

He said the plane had picked up a couple of passengers before it

returned to St. Thomas.

Mapp said rescue crews are still trying to recover more bodies.

He said he did not know what type of plane was involved.

(Copyright 2012 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

APTV-10-13-12 1338EDT

[msbee]

sorry to have to report another Caribbean airplane crash

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... d-for.html

[Gustywind]

sorry to have to report another Caribbean airplane crash

http://www.smn-news.com/st-maarten-st-m ... d-for.html

Yeah i just posted it in the another thread. I don't know if this drama was related to Rafael presence or not. Waouw, 3 airplanes crash in less than one week, that's really sad and worrying. Let's pray and keep the faith. Condoleances to all these families...

[Gustywind]

For info, it's raining continiously since 2 PM in Guadeloupe, hopefully not impressive amounts of water but that could cause big problems for the 24h as rain should continue to spread on the butterfly and adjacents islands more like yours Msbee. Let's continue to follow Rafael progress and be extremely carefull.

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

.DISCUSSION...CENTER OF RAFAEL STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN BUT SLOW
STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN APPARENT. MOST CONVECTION REMAINS ON ITS
EAST SIDE AND EXPECT THAT TO ENVELOPE THE CENTER MORE BY THIS
EVENING. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO ONGOING FORECASTS.
IN THE FACE OF MODEL GUIDANCE THAT DOES NOT FIT THE TRENDS FOR
THIS SYSTEM ONGOING WIND GRIDS WERE USED AND ONLY DELAYED 3 HOURS
WITH VERY MINOR OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS LIFTING NORTHWARD
AS WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES. AS IT DOES THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE
A GREATER TENDENCY TO WRAP AROUND CENTER OF RAFAEL AND POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAINS TO TARGET USVI AND POSSIBLY PR. 18Z TJSJ SUPPLEMENTAL
SOUNDING SHOWED LITTLE SURPRISE WITH 2.3 IN. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND NE WINDS TO 15 KFT...AND S WINDS ABOVE 40 KFT CONFIRMS TROUGH
LIFTING NORTHWARD AS STATED.

RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING FROM RAFAEL REMAINS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND/SEAS/RIP CURRENTS TO BE POTENTIAL
PROBLEMS TOO DEPENDING ON RAFAEL TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...PR TAF SITES TO BE VFR MOST OF NEXT 24 HRS XCPT OCNL
IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA WHICH WILL INCR TOWARDS THIS EVE. TNCM/TKPK
HAVE ALREADY SEEN INCRG LOWER CONDS DUE CONVECTION AND THIS HIGHER
FREQUENCY OF SHRA/TSRA WILL SPREAD INTO TIST/TISX TONIGHT. WINDS
OVR TNCM/TKPK TO BE S 25-40 KT TO FL100 BECMG SW 15-25 LATE SUN.
TIST/TISX TO HAVE VRBL 40 KT AT TIMES TONIGHT THEN SW 15-25 SUN.
PR CONT NE 10-25 KT TO FL100 THIS EVE THEN LIKELY BECMG NW
OVERNIGHT AND W BY SUN AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 89 78 89 / 80 80 30 40
STT 79 89 80 87 / 80 80 50 50

[caribepr]

For info, it's raining continiously since 2 PM in Guadeloupe, hopefully not impressive amounts of water but that could cause big problems for the 24h as rain should continue to spread on the butterfly and adjacents islands more like yours Msbee. Let's continue to follow Rafael progress and be extremely carefull.

Wishing you and your island well, Gusty, and all of us in the way of Rafael's trip across the sea.

[Gustywind]

For info, it's raining continiously since 2 PM in Guadeloupe, hopefully not impressive amounts of water but that could cause big problems for the 24h as rain should continue to spread on the butterfly and adjacents islands more like yours Msbee. Let's continue to follow Rafael progress and be extremely carefull.

Wishing you and your island well, Gusty, and all of us in the way of Rafael's trip across the sea.

Thanks to you . Hope that all the CARIB FAMILY is OK even if Rafael is spreading on the Lesser Antilles. By the way, reports of 5 trees down have been reported on the road in some localities of the butterfly islands. Some flooding are occuring but nothing especially bad... for the moment. I will keep you informed if i've more tonight. Looks like more rain is coming tonight to your way and orange alert is maintained tonight ... and at least tommorow even Monday given the latest from our Pro Mets. We continue to monitor the progress of TS Rafael.

[knotimpaired]

OMG, please tell me it is not true

[Gustywind]

This video has been taken from the very informative weather site of StormCarib.com
[b]Rafael impacts Soufriere waterfront[/b]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PciTFlEt ... e=youtu.be

[Gustywind]

WEATHER FORECAST. Rafael is always on our archipelago

franceantilles.fr 13.10.2012
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php


Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 260 km west of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. Rain showers are frequent this afternoon and tonight on our archipelago. They are sometimes intense and stormy. Rain will continue throughout the day Sunday.



Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 260 km west of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. Our archipelago is on the fringe of the winds force storm but remains concerned by the rear part of this low pressure, fairly active and extended area on any of the Antillean arc.
Rain showers are frequent this afternoon and tonight on our archipelago. They are sometimes intense and stormy. The rains will continue all day Sunday.
The south-easterly wind remains supported, with average speeds of 40 to 50 km/h (gusts exceeding 70 km/h) on the coast and the hills, before gradually weakening late in the day. The sea continues to be amortized slowly, average lows around 2 m at the end. However, it remains pretty hashed due to wind.
Some heavy showers have been circulated this morning in the East and West coasts margin and consequential rollups were observed on the Desirage (80 litres per m2 in 3 hours). Winds gusting to 90 km/h have been measured on the Désirade, and 65 km/h to Marie-Galante.
At the level of the sea, there are currently average lows of around 2.4 m.
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already soaked soils can cause strong accumulations of water causing landslides and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[caribepr]

For info, it's raining continiously since 2 PM in Guadeloupe, hopefully not impressive amounts of water but that could cause big problems for the 24h as rain should continue to spread on the butterfly and adjacents islands more like yours Msbee. Let's continue to follow Rafael progress and be extremely carefull.

Wishing you and your island well, Gusty, and all of us in the way of Rafael's trip across the sea.

Thanks to you . Hope that all the CARIB FAMILY is OK even if Rafael is spreading on the Lesser Antilles. By the way, reports of 5 trees down have been reported on the road in some localities of the butterfly islands. Some flooding are occuring but nothing especially bad... for the moment. I will keep you informed if i've more tonight. Looks like more rain is coming tonight to your way and orange alert is maintained tonight ... and at least tommorow even Monday given the latest from our Pro Mets. We continue to monitor the progress of TS Rafael.

While Rafael appears to be strengthening, it is also appearing to have taken almost a degree of turn to the north. I'm seeing blue sky here now.

[cycloneye]

Hi Mj. The new director of the San Juan NWS Roberto Garcia said in a press conference that we can't let our guard down just in case Rafael moves more closer before it goes away from our latitude. Also,he said that the tail of Rafael may contain some TS force winds in gusts and with heavy rains and that is another reason to keep the warning for Culebra and the watch for PR.