WPAC: MARIA - Tropical Storm

[euro6208]

13.5N-146.2E or East of Guam...

no model support...

[mrbagyo]

better organized,,I'm a bit surprised JTWC is not yet giving any prog with this

[euro6208]

13/0232 UTC 17.0N 146.5E T1.0/1.0 90W -- West Pacific

currently no rain at all but it is cloudy and breezy...

[Meow]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 17.1N 146.1E MARIANAS ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 130611
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
411 PM CHST SAT OCT 13 2012

GUZ003-004-131800-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-
411 PM CHST SAT OCT 13 2012

...HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NORTH OF SAIPAN NEAR 17N146E IS
EXPECTED TO BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
TINIAN AND SAIPAN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY THROUGH NOON SUNDAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LOCAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE HEAVIEST
RAIN...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUSUPE ON SAIPAN. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHWEST.

RESIDENTS OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN SHOULD BE ALERT AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL OFFICIALS.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.8N, 146.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PAGAN, CNMI. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED BUT ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SAME ANIMATION ALSO SHOWS SOME
FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS BETWEEN TWO RIDGE AXES ONE TO
THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS,
BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING PGSN, ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. IN VIEW OF THE CONDITIONAL STABILITY OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

wow! this has organized deep convection persisting for over 12 hours!

this should be our 23rd tropical cyclone of the season...

[Iune]

Next name is Maria...

[HurricaneBill]

How do you track a system like Maria?

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 140050
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1050 AM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012

GUZ003>005-150100-
TINIAN-SAIPAN-NORTHERN MARIANAS-
1050 AM CHST SUN OCT 14 2012

...SHOWERS PULLING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WATERS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN NEAR 17N144E IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS WATERS.
THE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT FROM THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE
DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER THEY ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY
AFFECT THE MARIANAS AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS.

WINDS IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS NORTH OF SAIPAN WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN SHOWERS
TODAY...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH. HAZARDOUS SURF OF 8 TO 10 FEET
CAUSED BY SWELLS FROM DISTANT TYPHOON PRAPIROON WILL ALSO CONTINUE
ON WEST AND NORTHWEST FACING REEFS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

$$

STANKO

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 140000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1N 146.2E TO 22.3N 140.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
132032Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
145.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N,
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275 NM NORTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS DEEP
CENTRALIZED CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES STARTING
WITH A 131751Z AMSU-B PASS, INCLUDING A 132010Z AND A 132017Z SSMIS
PASS INDICATING THE LLCC HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH
BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CREATING MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) OVER THE LLCC (WITH
HIGH LEVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC), WHICH IS IN TURN
PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB. DUE TO THE LLCC
BEGINNING TO SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION BUILDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150000Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.8N
146.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 143.9E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION BUILDING OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES
STARTING WITH A 131751Z AMSU-B PASS, INCLUDING A 132010Z AND A
132017Z SSMIS PASS INDICATING THE LLCC HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS WITH BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
CREATING MODERATE LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
OVER THE LLCC (WITH HIGH LEVELS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC),
WHICH IS IN TURN PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 MB.
DUE TO THE LLCC BEGINNING TO SHOW IMPROVEMENTS IN ORGANIZATION WITH
DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION BUILDING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[Extratropical94]

JMA: 31st tropical depression

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 17.4N 144.6E MARIANAS MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.

JTWC: TD 23W

WTPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132351ZOCT2012//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.5N 143.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 143.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.8N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.3N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 26.2N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 31.7N 145.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 35.7N 152.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 38.2N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 143.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 132351Z OCT 12 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140000) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. //
NNNN

[P.K.]

22nd TS of the year.

WTPQ21 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1222 MARIA (1222) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 17.9N 143.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 20.2N 141.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 161200UTC 22.4N 140.6E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 171200UTC 24.6N 140.2E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =

[euro6208]

Welcome Maria!


WTPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 17.8N 142.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 142.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.9N 141.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.3N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.5N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 27.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.1N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 35.8N 154.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 37.4N 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 142.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. //
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS IMPROVED FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS FIVE
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT)
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH BIAS TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 23W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS THEN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE EDGE OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 48,
A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN THE
STR AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL
SEE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL BE SUPPRESSED
BY A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. BEFORE TAU 72, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE DUE TO INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 23W WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THEN BEGIN
EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A COLD
CORE LOW BY END OF FORECAST. THE LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO WITH NOGAPS THE
RIGHT OUTLIER TAKING THE VORTEX INTO THE STR. THIS FORECAST IS LAID
TO THE LEFT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY INTRUSION
INTO THE STEERING STR. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE IN THE MODELS. //
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 141500
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) ADVISORY NUMBER 02
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP232012
200 AM CHST MON OCT 15 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W NAMED MARIA...

NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

AT 100 AM CHST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W)
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 142.1
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT

240 MILES WEST OF AGRIHAN
245 MILES WEST OF PAGAN
255 MILES WEST OF ALAMAGAN
325 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN
380 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
450 MILES SOUTH OF IWO TO...JAPAN.

TROPICAL STORM MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MARIA IS FORECASTED TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 100 AM POSITION...18.3 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND
142.1 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 MPH
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY FOR TROPICAL STORM MARIA (23W) WILL BE
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LATER THIS MORNING AT 800 AM.

$$

AYDLETT

[Hurricane_Luis]

Tropical Storm Maria

[euro6208]

WTPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.9N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.5N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 26.8N 140.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 28.6N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.3N 148.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 141.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF IWO
TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z. REFER TO
TYPHOON 22W (PRAPIROON) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


WDPN32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MARIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM SOUTH OF
IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A SERIES OF RECENT
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INCLUDING A 142102Z WINDSAT PASS, WHICH
SHOWS A CLEAR CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES BASED ON RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS
STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER A
VERY WARM SEA SURFACE. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED
ON A RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE INITIAL POSITION
LYING TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A CORRESPONDING SHIFT
IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT INTENSIFICATION.
B. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE
RIDGE AXIS AND TURN EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. FAVORABLE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND PASSAGE
OVER VERY WARM WATER SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN THE
NEAR-TERM, ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM TY 22W TO THE
WEST SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. TS 23W WILL ENTER THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN JUST AFTER TAU 48 AND UNDERGO A RAPID
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING A FULLY BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 72.
THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

latest METAR from Iwo To showing TS-force winds along with heavy rains...

IWOJIMA in JAPAN
Oct 15 23:08 35 min ago
METAR RJAW 152308Z 21040G56KT 0900 R25/0800V1400D +SHRA FG SCT002 BKN005 OVC010 SCT010CB 25/23 Q1004 RMK 3ST002 6ST005 8CU010 3CB010 A2967 CB OHD MOV NE P/RR=

[Meow]

Maria has been a severe tropical storm for many days. Why does someone always ignore the RSMC for the northwest Pacific Ocean?