Caribbean - Central America Weather

[caribepr]

Hi Mj. The new director of the San Juan NWS Roberto Garcia said in a press conference that we can't let our guard down just in case Rafael moves more closer before it goes away from our latitude. Also,he said that the tail of Rafael may contain some TS force winds in gusts and with heavy rains and that is another reason to keep the warning for Culebra and the watch for PR.

Thanks so much, Luis! I was just walking around the yard, wondering about that. The sunset is glorious, and all preps are staying in place until the fat lady, or the NWS sings

[msbee]

rockin' and rolling here now

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[caribepr]

rockin' and rolling here now

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 63.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Hope it all is just some rock and roll...I hate that rap stuff!

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
706 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS AS HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...

.NEW INFORMATION...
STORM INFORMATION UPDATED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
CULEBRA...VIEQUES...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS AND ST
CROIX.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS COASTAL
WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS
THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3N...LONGITUDE 63.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 190 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PR...OR ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF SAINT CROIX VI. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
RAFAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...HOWEVER A NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF RAFAEL
IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS TONIGHT. RAIN AND SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING
VIEQUES AND CULEBRA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...URGENTLY COMPLETE
PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS
PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE FINAL
PREPARATIONS FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT BEFORE LEAVING IT. BE SURE
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...CONTINUE WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS AND
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

[msbee]

Luis, St. Maarten is getting hit pretty hard at this time with strong winds and heavy rain.
I am sure there is localized flooding in many places.
Most people are home and hunkered down though.

[cycloneye]

Luis, St. Maarten is getting hit pretty hard at this time with strong winds and heavy rain.
I am sure there is localized flooding in many places.
Most people are home and hunkered down though.

When you can,(If internet doesn't go) keep us informed about what is going on over there and how much rain falls in your gauge.

[Gustywind]

Cycloneye what's the weather like en la isla del encanto? I hope that PR will be spare by TS Rafael especially given the latest weather forecasts.

[Gustywind]

TS Rafael continues to spread on Guadeloupe. A strong gust have been reported this afternoon reaching 100 km/H! Conditions should very very slightly improve maybe tommorow even if the orange alert is always maintained. A back off in yellow code is possible tommorow but it's may be to early to confirm that. Be safe and dry all those who could experienced the very bad weather associated with Rafael (BVI, Northern Leewards). I don't forget you Barbara and all the friends in the BVI. Best thoughts from Gustywind and the butterfly island . Keep us informed as possible.


WEATHER FORECAST. Rafael moving away but always there this night

franceantilles.fr 13.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php

Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 300 km northwest of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. The continuous rain sometimes locally heavy and stormy continues in the evening and night. A slight improvement is emerging Sunday.


Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 300 km northwest of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. Our archipelago is always concerned with the rear portion of its area disrupted with its many locally intense rains.
The continuous rain sometimes locally heavy and stormy continues in the evening and night. Draws a slight improvement Sunday.? South wind is supported, with average speeds around the 50 km/h (gusts exceeding 70 to 80 km/h) on the coast and the hills, before gradually weakening in the evening.
This afternoon accumulations of rain observed in 6 hours have reached 20 to 40 litres ar m2 on a large part of the archipelago. The wind always blows in a sustained manner (a gust of 62 mph was measured at la Désirade in the afternoon)
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already soaked soils can cause strong accumulations of water causing landslides and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[Gustywind]

TS Rafael continues to spread on Guadeloupe. A strong gust have been reported this afternoon reaching 100 km/h! Conditions should very very slightly improve maybe tommorow even if the orange alert is always maintained. A back off in yellow code is possible tommorow but it's may be to early to confirm that. Be safe and dry all those who could experienced the very bad weather associated with Rafael (BVI, Northern Leewards). I don't forget you Barbara and all the friends in the BVI. Best thoughts from Gustywind and the butterfly island . Keep us informed as possible.


WEATHER FORECAST. Rafael moving away but always there this night

franceantilles.fr 13.10.2012

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 189821.php

Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 300 km northwest of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. The continuous rain sometimes locally heavy and stormy continues in the evening and night. A slight improvement is emerging Sunday.


Tropical storm Rafael is currently at sea in the Caribbean about 300 km northwest of our coasts and moving towards Puerto Rico. Our archipelago is always concerned with the rear portion of its area disrupted with its many locally intense rains.
The continuous rain sometimes locally heavy and stormy continues in the evening and night. Draws a slight improvement Sunday.? South wind is supported, with average speeds around the 50 km/h (gusts exceeding 70 to 80 km/h) on the coast and the hills, before gradually weakening in the evening.
This afternoon accumulations of rain observed in 6 hours have reached 20 to 40 litres ar m2 on a large part of the archipelago. The wind always blows in a sustained manner (a gust of 62 mph was measured at la Désirade in the afternoon).
The duration and intensity of the precipitation forecast on already soaked soils can cause strong accumulations of water causing landslides and flooding in places, as well as the rise of some streams.

[msbee]

hi Gusty
hope you all are keeping safe down there.

Luis, in my area we had about 2.5 inches of rain last night and we have had another 2.5 inches today.
We'll see what the overnight hours bring tonight.
Right now it is quiet. The winds have died down and it is raining lightly..

[cycloneye]

Gusty,keep us informed about what is goning on in the Butterfly island,and after all is over,hopefully nothing bad occurs there in terms of flooding and landslides.

[Gustywind]

Gusty,keep us informed about what is going on in the Butterfly island,and after all is over,hopefully nothing bad occurs there in terms of flooding and landslides.

Ok no problem Cycloneye . Just writing this post and rain is coming strongly right now with some gust but nothing excessive. First lightning and thunder is rumbling for the first time since yesterday. No reports of important floodings but things can easily change as usual. Be safe and dry all!

[Gustywind]

hi Gusty
hope you all are keeping safe down there.

Luis, in my area we had about 2.5 inches of rain last night and we have had another 2.5 inches today.
We'll see what the overnight hours bring tonight.
Right now it is quiet. The winds have died down and it is raining lightly..

Thanks to you, i'm ok. Keeping our fingers crossed for the Northern Leewards, be safe Barbara! Keep us informed.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch and Warnings discontinued

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some bands are moving thru PR today as Rafael moves away from the region.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
559 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 5 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4 NORTH AND 63.8 WEST AND WAS MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR PUERTO RICO HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...AS THE EASTWARD
RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER OF RAFAEL YESTERDAY AND SUBSEQUENT
NORTHWARD MOTION...ALLOWED MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
(AMZ710) UNTIL 11 AM AST...FOR MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION.

OUTER RAIN BANDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN LIMITED ACROSS THE FA...BUT
THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND A BIT TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL BANDS WILL ALIGN
IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FASHION ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND THEN LINGER INTO MONDAY.

ALTHOUGH RAINFALL HAS NOT BEEN IMPRESSIVE THUS FAR AND WIDESPREAD
OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WOULD REMAIN IN EFFECT
UNTIL THE EXTENT AND ORIENTATION OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BECOMES MORE CLEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL TAF
SITES FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS
ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS BRIEFLY AFFECT THE SITES. TSRA
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING TNCM AND TKPK THROUGH THE MORNING
AS TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH. LLVL WINDS WILL
BE MAINLY NORTHERLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...EXCEPT THAT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS
(AMZ710) UNTIL 11 AM AST...FOR MAINLY THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
PORTION. ADDITIONALLY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS IN AND AROUND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 79 / 60 40 40 10
STT 89 81 87 80 / 70 70 70 40

[Gustywind]

The time for the next hours on Guadeloupe
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!
At 0715AM, the level of vigilance is: red for strong rains/storms, be extremely careful!


Intense storm stormy bands move through the archipelago since that night in the wake of the storm Rafael. Rainfall have reached 30 to 50 millimeters these last 3 hours on the East Grande Terre and les Saintes, less than 30 millmeters elsewhere.
For the next 3 hours storm stormy episodes continue follow up through the southwest of the archipelago.
The wind blows in gusts of 50 to 80 km/h from Southeast to South to the passage of these storms.
These observations and their immediate evolution will fund day around 0945 AM.

[Gustywind]

Here is the complete advisory edited by Meteo-France Guadeloupe as RED ALERT is up since 4AM. We continue to monitor carefully the situation as plenty of rain should occur today. I will try to keep you informed if i've more news because of damages have occured in many localities of the island especially those who lived in the town of Basse-Terre and adjacents localities. By the way, our friend from Basse-Terre HUC told me that is rain gauge measured more than 260 millimeters between yesterday morning 6 am and today 6AM! Moreover, he has no Internet/ phone and some poweroutages as the thunder falls close from its home at 2AM. Hopefully he has a mobile phone to talk with me. I will keep your informed for sure. Stay tuned.
Gustywind


Newsletter tracking No.: 13Episode No.: 14 - GDSunday October 14, 2012 at 07AM

Guadeloupe weather vigilance: LEVEL red for ' strong rains / storms.

Current situation and Comments

The passage of intense feeders bands with strong thunderstorms in the wake of the storm Rafael have caused very heavy rainfall and thunderstorms impacts last night on the archipelago. In 12 hours, rainfall have reached 100 to 200 millimeters on the half South of Basse-Terre, in particular on the town of Basseterre and the heights of Capesterre. On the East of Grande Terre, rainfall have reached 50 to 100 mm durinng 12 hours.


Forecasts: Guadeloupe remains concerned by strong stormy episodes who spread our archipelago by Southwest, interspersed with periods of calm.
These rains in addition to rollups are already very important on waterlogged soils. Note that the thunderstorms are accompanied by gustywinds between 50 and 80km/h.
[/b]Comments /Consequences:

Increased risk of flooding, mudslides and landslides, floodstorrential ravines, ditches and streams. Traffic conditions that may bevery difficult. Significant risk of lightning strikes and power cuts.


Summary: The phenomenon is underway. The expected impact is important.


Validity - period ofphenomenon: Ongoing until Sunday night at least.

Next newsletter: Sunday October 14 10AM.

[Gustywind]

Here is a report of the worrying situation in Guadeloupe. I will give you more during the next hours because of damages have occured in the island. I'm listening to the local radio and i will keep you informed.


- A house was in fire yesterday night at 2AM at Vieux-Habitants due to the impact of a big thunderstorm. The occcupants suffer from burns and were taken to the hospital.

- Reports from people in troubles at Goyave concerning their car falling in the river. Unhopefully for the moment, they didn't find their cars but the police continue to find. We don't know more about that, hope that there's no report of deathtoll in the car too.

- Reports of numerous floodings between Capesterre and Basse-Terre.

- A big rock has fallen at les Abymes, Terrasson in the middle of the road.

[Gustywind]

Reports of two muslides at Gourbeyre and St Claude. The locality of St Claude has no electricity. No water in some localities numerous cuts of waters at Port-Louis, Anse Bertrand.

[Gustywind]

Hour by hour, Guadeloupe discover the first damages of Rafael . The situation is more worrying than predicted. Hearing the radio, another muslide has occured at Gourbeyre.