SWIO: ANAIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

what a beast...



CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

[P.K.]

This would be equivalent to a major hurricane in the Atlantic in April, correct?

Season starts on 1st Nov so this is more like a mid May system in the N Atl.

[Cyclenall]

I was stunned when I saw Anais for the first time, looked immensely powerful for this time of year in the SIO. My estimate for strength is around 135 knots and no where close to what the other agencies are putting out (95-105 knots?). The eye is recent hours is almost totally clear and fairly warm looking (can't be totally sure because the products aren't great and the NRL isn't updating properly...newest full image is 2 hours old). Symmetry is close to that of a category 5 cyclone. Appears to be explosive deepening obviously that was totally missed by all accounts due to the simple fact this has never happened before in recorded history (for mid-October). Most interesting thing to happen in the tropics since Nadine. Maybe the southern Hemisphere seasons this cycle will actually be insanely active instead of dead which will be a change.

ANAIS INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY SINCE 00Z AND BECOMES THE HISTORICAL
EARLIER INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN

Oh man this is killing me . Does anyone here think this was a gradual strengthening Anais just underwent? *crickets chirping*

Forgive me, folks, because I'm relatively new here...I have a question to ask that's been bothering me. I see that people often post content that merely is a copy and paste of complete discussions from NHC, JTWC, etc. These copy-and-paste posts do not contain any analysis or insight from the person who posted.

Is the assumption here that there are people in this forum who are incapable of finding official discussions on the Web? If so, then my question is answered.

As a newcomer, I find such posts distracting. When I was teaching, I warned my students against the "diamond in the cow-dung heap" approach on exams. My warning was meant to discourage students from writing everything they knew about the topic associated with a specific exam question (these students expected me to go through all the text in order to find the nugget that perhaps answered the question).

I get the same feeling when I see an official discussion merely copied and pasted in a thread here. Wouldn't it be better just to copy and paste the relevant portion of a discussion and then comment about this relevant portion using individual insight and supporting images?

If I'm way out in left field on this one, I sincerely apologize. But I have to admit it's frustrating to see lines and lines and lines of copied and pasted text without any comment or insight. Again, I apologize if my observations as a newcomer are off base. All I'm saying is that it would be nice to see more posts with more focus. Thanks for understanding.

This is just the way it goes around here. If its an Atlantic storm that is popular the advisories get their own topic thread so it doesn't clutter things up. If its something like this everything just goes into one thread. I thought the same as you years back but I think its convenient to just look at those discussions from here instead of searching or going somewhere else to find it. Most people don't regularly visit those sites so its good they are all in one place. Maybe also the poster has nothing more to add to what is said in the text.

This would be equivalent to a major hurricane in the Atlantic in April, correct?

Season starts on 1st Nov so this is more like a mid May system in the N Atl.

That's wild, extremely rare to put it lightly!!!

[Hurricane_Luis]

110 mph (175 km/h) 1 min Sustained

Intense Tropical Cyclone (MFR)
Category 3 Tropical Cyclone (SSHS)

[Laplacian]

I was stunned when I saw Anais for the first time, looked immensely powerful for this time of year in the SIO. My estimate for strength is around 135 knots and no where close to what the other agencies are putting out (95-105 knots?). The eye is recent hours is almost totally clear and fairly warm looking (can't be totally sure because the products aren't great and the NRL isn't updating properly...newest full image is 2 hours old). Symmetry is close to that of a category 5 cyclone. Appears to be explosive deepening obviously that was totally missed by all accounts due to the simple fact this has never happened before in recorded history (for mid-October). Most interesting thing to happen in the tropics since Nadine. Maybe the southern Hemisphere seasons this cycle will actually be insanely active instead of dead which will be a change.

ANAIS INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY SINCE 00Z AND BECOMES THE HISTORICAL
EARLIER INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN

Oh man this is killing me . Does anyone here think this was a gradual strengthening Anais just underwent? *crickets chirping*

Forgive me, folks, because I'm relatively new here...I have a question to ask that's been bothering me. I see that people often post content that merely is a copy and paste of complete discussions from NHC, JTWC, etc. These copy-and-paste posts do not contain any analysis or insight from the person who posted.

Is the assumption here that there are people in this forum who are incapable of finding official discussions on the Web? If so, then my question is answered.

As a newcomer, I find such posts distracting. When I was teaching, I warned my students against the "diamond in the cow-dung heap" approach on exams. My warning was meant to discourage students from writing everything they knew about the topic associated with a specific exam question (these students expected me to go through all the text in order to find the nugget that perhaps answered the question).

I get the same feeling when I see an official discussion merely copied and pasted in a thread here. Wouldn't it be better just to copy and paste the relevant portion of a discussion and then comment about this relevant portion using individual insight and supporting images?

If I'm way out in left field on this one, I sincerely apologize. But I have to admit it's frustrating to see lines and lines and lines of copied and pasted text without any comment or insight. Again, I apologize if my observations as a newcomer are off base. All I'm saying is that it would be nice to see more posts with more focus. Thanks for understanding.

This is just the way it goes around here. If its an Atlantic storm that is popular the advisories get their own topic thread so it doesn't clutter things up. If its something like this everything just goes into one thread. I thought the same as you years back but I think its convenient to just look at those discussions from here instead of searching or going somewhere else to find it. Most people don't regularly visit those sites so its good they are all in one place. Maybe also the poster has nothing more to add to what is said in the text.

This would be equivalent to a major hurricane in the Atlantic in April, correct?

Season starts on 1st Nov so this is more like a mid May system in the N Atl.

That's wild, extremely rare to put it lightly!!!

Understood and, as the new guy, I'm on board.

[CrazyC83]

14/1800 UTC 11.9S 65.3E T6.0/6.0 ANAIS

Still supports 115 kt, although ADT is down a bit in the past few hours.

[P.K.]

Up to 100kts at 18Z. In addition to this they've added some new information on this earliest forming ITC record and it turns out this is the first one on record to have occurred in October.


WTIO30 FMEE 141817

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/1/20122013
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (ANAIS)

2.A POSITION 2012/10/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 65.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL
THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 949 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :24 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 280 SW: 330 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 180 SW: 200 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 60

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2012/10/15 06 UTC: 12.7 S / 64.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2012/10/15 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 63.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2012/10/16 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2012/10/16 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2012/10/17 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 58.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2012/10/17 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/10/18 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE
120H: 2012/10/19 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATIONS:
T=6.0, CI=6.0
ANAIS INTENSIFIES GRADUALLY AND BECOMES THE HISTORICAL EARLIER KNEW
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTH WEST INDIAN OCEAN AND THE
FIRST ONE FOR OCTOBER.

ON THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IN
RELATIONSHIP WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW ON THE BOTH SIDES AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL CONTEXT (EFFICIENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).

MONDAY , SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING OVER MARGINAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WEAKENING OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL.
AS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOWEVER FAVOURABLE, SYSTEM SHOULD
WEAKENING SLOWLY IN A FIRST TIME THEN QUICKLY ON AND AFTER TUESDAY.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, DUE TO THE
GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
ON WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE SHARPLY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND SYSTEM
SHOULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.
SEVERAL NWP MODELS (IFS,ALADIN AND NOGAPS) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND
FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND A RECURVING MOVEMENT ON AND AFTER
THURSDAY.

00Z ENSEMBLE EPS SPREAD IS NOW LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH
SEVERAL MEMBERS THAT FORECAST THIS SOUTHWARDS RECURVING TRACK AT
MEDIUM RANGE.
RSMC LA REUNION PRIVILEGES NOW THIS SCENARIO.

SOME AVAILABLE NWP MODELS (GFS, ARPEGE) FORECAST HOWEVER A MORE
MERIDIAN AND SOUTHERN TRACK AND UKMO AND GFDN KEEPS ON TRACKING THE
SYSTEM GLOBALLY WESTWARDS.=

[Yellow Evan]

Epic is the only word to describe this system.

[Macrocane]

I noticed this system until this morning when I read Jeff Masters' blog, I can't believe I didn't see the evolution of this interesting system, it's all Paul's and Richard's fault

[CrazyC83]

Imagine a Category 4 in the Atlantic in the pre-season. This is an identical situation. Another possible parallel could be last year's Kenneth in the EPAC (in late November).

[Cyclenall]

I noticed this system until this morning when I read Jeff Masters' blog, I can't believe I didn't see the evolution of this interesting system, it's all Paul's and Richard's fault

There is no Richard anywhere, maybe Rafael? And don't worry about missing anything, there is no floater active on the SSD page for this baby.

[Macrocane]

There is no Richard anywhere, maybe Rafael? And don't worry about missing anything, there is no floater active on the SSD page for this baby.

LOL Where do I have my head? Yes, I meant Rafael. Fortunately I found this site to track Anais http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=SH012013

[Laplacian]

Just a classic eyewall replacement cycle shown on this 24-hour loop of observed and morphed microwave imagery (from approximately 03Z on October 14 to 03Z on October 15):

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldof ... t24hrs.gif

[Hurricane_Luis]

Intense Tropical Cyclone Anias

[Yellow Evan]

Paul and Anais are both amazing cyclones. I have a felling the SWIO will be active this year.

[euro6208]

WTXS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ANAIS) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 14.2S 60.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2S 60.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 14.8S 58.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 15.4S 56.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 15.8S 55.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 16.1S 53.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 59.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ANAIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A
160655Z TRMM 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING LIMITED TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT
THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
MODERATE, NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 01S IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY DUE TO MARGINAL SST (24 TO 25C) AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. WITH THE SOLE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, WHICH RE-CURVES THE SYSTEM,
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. THE JTWC FORECAST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET WBAR. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z AND 171500Z.//
NNNN