ATL: RAFAEL - Recon Discussion

[weatherwindow]

Luis, is someone onboard who can post the sat/map overlay?....the cute little airplanes:)

[cycloneye]

Luis, is someone onboard who can post the sat/map overlay?....the cute little airplanes:)

I would like to have someone post the graphics of the mission.

[cycloneye]

weatherwindow,I made your question on the recon thread a recon discussion thread to have that one clear to recieve the data.

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at 1 AM EDT.

[cycloneye]

The next mission departs at 12:45 PM EDT.

[cycloneye]

This is the TCPOD for Sunday and Monday.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 13 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-147

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72--       FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 73--
       A. 15/0000Z                  A. 15/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0517A RAFAEL        B. AFXXX 0617A RAFAEL
       C. 14/2100Z                  C. 15/0830Z
       D. 21.0N 66.2W               D. 22.6N 67.0W
       E. 14/2200 T0 15/0030Z       E. 15/0930Z TO 15/1230Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES.       
    3. REMARKS: TAKEOFF FOR 14/1200Z MISSION DETAILED IN
       TCPOD 12-146 HAS BEEN SLIPPED TO 14/1100Z.



[cycloneye]

Who wants to post the data of the mission that has started?

[cycloneye]

Plenty of strong winds uncontaminated at this set.

190030 1536N 06203W 8430 01534 0085 +127 +124 177051 052 041 018 00
190100 1537N 06204W 8422 01542 0081 +132 +123 173052 053 040 017 00
190130 1539N 06206W 8441 01522 0082 +130 +121 174047 053 038 018 00
190200 1540N 06207W 8424 01538 0081 +130 +120 174049 052 045 029 00
190230 1541N 06208W 8435 01525 0080 +129 +120 168048 054 045 033 00
190300 1543N 06210W 8425 01536 0080 +129 +121 169052 056 047 032 00
190330 1544N 06211W 8448 01517 0084 +129 +121 162041 053 049 036 00
190400 1546N 06213W 8429 01536 0083 +131 +122 166039 040 049 032 00

[brunota2003]

That's enough for a bump up to 40 knots, maybeeeee 45 knots off of flight level. I would stick with 40 knots though, since the SFMR winds are rain inflated and they are only getting up to 50 knots.

[cycloneye]

Here is the afternoon/evening mission.

[cycloneye]

Plenty of winds at flight level betwenn 50-59kts and in the 40's on SMFR on NE quad,although some of them may be rain contaminated.

[cycloneye]

Here is Sundays TCPOD for Monday and Tuesday.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 14 OCTOBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z OCTOBER 2012
         TCPOD NUMBER.....12-148

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL
       FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--       FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 72--
       A. 16/0000Z                  A. 16/1200Z, 1800Z
       B. AFXXX 0717A RAFAEL        B. AFXXX 0817A RAFAEL
       C. 15/1930Z                  C. 16/0930Z
       D. 25.5N 66.2W               D. 29.1N 64.8W
       E. 15/2100 T0 16/0000Z       E. 16/1130Z TO 16/1800Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.



[cycloneye]

Lowest pressure found was 992 mbs.

222500 2113N 06423W 8425 01433 9918 +200 +184 162014 017 007 002 03

[CrazyC83]

Winds also support a 55 kt intensity so far.

[cycloneye]

Wow,71kt at flight level.

[CrazyC83]

Wow,71kt at flight level.

That translates to 57 kt at the surface.

[brunota2003]

With 67 knot flight level wind at launch point, and 53 knot surface winds on that drop, translates out to about an 80% reduction.

71 knots at flight level would be about 57 knots, using that. So a 55 to 60 knot TS right now, per recon data.

[brunota2003]

Using 0.8 as the reduction, which recon supports at the moment, the minimum flight level wind for hurricane force would be approximately 80 knots, which translates down to 64 knots at the surface.

So start looking for 80 knots or greater!

[brunota2003]

Center is off to the west of the previous fix? Interesting, to say the least.

I measured about 280 degrees and 22.3 miles between those two fixes.

[brunota2003]

Looks like we'll get one more center fix...Recco: Inbound SE.