West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The GFS is consistently developing a West Caribbean tropical cyclone from the monsoon trough around October 25th.

Post the models runs and other information concerning it here.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS long-range 348 hours from now on Oct. 29th (first image). The low shows up at 240 hours on Oct. 24th in the SW Caribbean (second image). 12Z ECMWF develops a low at 240 hours also (third image):

[blp]

Sorry, I posted this in the global thread as well because I did not see this thread

The Euro is seeing it at 240hrs. This development looks probable given the strong mjo pulse we will be seeing as well as climatology. I don't think it will get very strong because the caribbean has been hostile all year and vertical stability continues to be very weak.

12z Euro:


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MJO:


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Vertical Instability:



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[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

According to official records since 1851, such a solution depicted by the GFS--a hurricane impact in South Florida after October 24--would be almost unprecedented. Only six hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 20 in South Florida:

Storm #7, 1865 (October 23, Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #9, 1870 (which was known as the second of the Twin Key West hurricanes that October and hit on October 21 at Category 1, 70 kt)
Storm #5, 1876 (which destroyed the Palm Beach settlement on October 20 at Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #10, 1924 (October 21, Category 1, 80 kt)
Storm #7, 1935 (which as the Yankee hurricane--the latest hurricane on record to hit South Florida--hit Miami from the northeast on November 4 at Category 2, 85 kt)
Wilma 2005 (October 24, Category 2, 95 kt)

Note that only ONE of the six impacts occurred after October 24--in 1935.

Statewide, since 1851, only two other hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 25: the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane (the latest major hurricane to strike the state on October 25 at 100 kt, Category 3) and Kate 1985 (November 21, 85 kt, Category 2).

So, given climatology, I would say no to the GFS and any similar solutions. The fact that conditions in the Caribbean have been hostile all year makes an unlikely solution even less likelier.

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM models also picks up on this showing a large developing system south of Cuba at 300 hours (Oct 27th):

[cycloneye]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

According to official records since 1851, such a solution depicted by the GFS--a hurricane impact in South Florida after October 24--would be almost unprecedented. Only six hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 20 in South Florida:

Storm #7, 1865 (October 23, Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #9, 1870 (which was known as the second of the Twin Key West hurricanes that October and hit on October 21 at Category 1, 70 kt)
Storm #5, 1876 (which destroyed the Palm Beach settlement on October 20 at Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #10, 1924 (October 21, Category 1, 80 kt)
Storm #7, 1935 (which as the Yankee hurricane--the latest hurricane on record to hit South Florida--hit Miami from the northeast on November 4 at Category 2, 85 kt)
Wilma 2005 (October 24, Category 2, 95 kt)

Statewide, since 1851, only two other hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 25: the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane (the latest major hurricane to strike the state on October 25 at 100 kt, Category 3) and Kate 1985 (November 21, 85 kt, Category 2).

So, given climatology, I would say no to the GFS and any similar solutions.

Apart from track,you agree that climatology favors the Western Caribbean for development in October,right? The good thing is that is long range and the tracks will change so what you saw at that run may be for another place in next run.

[blp]

12Z FIM models also picks up on this showing a large developing system south of Cuba at 336 hours:

http://imageshack.us/a/img825/4589/12zfim1014.jpg[/img]

Can you provide me a link to the FIM? I have been meaining to add it to my favorites but always forget. Thanks

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM models also picks up on this showing a large developing system south of Cuba at 336 hours:

http://imageshack.us/a/img825/4589/12zfim1014.jpg[/img]

Can you provide me a link to the FIM? I have been meaining to add it to my favorites but always forget. Thanks

http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim

[blp]

Well last nights CMC long range showed our low at 240 as well. I can't find a 12z long range for the CMC.



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[MiamiensisWx]

Apart from track,you agree that climatology favors the Western Caribbean for development in October,right? The good thing is that is long range and the tracks will change so what you saw at that run may be for another place in next run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, Luis. I was only referring to the track, not to the idea that something may form--I could easily see formation, even a weak system, but not the idea of a path to Florida. There have actually been many Caribbean cyclones even after October, in November, December, and even January (Alice #2, 1954). November 1932 saw a devastating Category-5 cyclone in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, while November 1999 saw Lenny in the Leeward Islands / St. Croix / your Puerto Rican neighborhood and November 2001 saw Michelle in Cuba and the Bahamas. So I definitely agree that the season is not yet over...it just may be for the mainland U.S. Everyone else should keep watch.

[Bocadude85]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

According to official records since 1851, such a solution depicted by the GFS--a hurricane impact in South Florida after October 24--would be almost unprecedented. Only six hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 20 in South Florida:

Storm #7, 1865 (October 23, Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #9, 1870 (which was known as the second of the Twin Key West hurricanes that October and hit on October 21 at Category 1, 70 kt)
Storm #5, 1876 (which destroyed the Palm Beach settlement on October 20 at Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #10, 1924 (October 21, Category 1, 80 kt)
Storm #7, 1935 (which as the Yankee hurricane-
-the latest hurricane on record to hit South Florida--hit Miami from the northeast on November 4 at Category 2, 85 kt)
Wilma 2005 (October 24, Category 2, 95 kt)

Wilma was 105kts at landfall in SW Fla
Note that only ONE of the six impacts occurred after October 24--in 1935.

Statewide, since 1851, only two other hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 25: the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane (the latest major hurricane to strike the state on October 25 at 100 kt, Category 3) and Kate 1985 (November 21, 85 kt, Category 2).

So, given climatology, I would say no to the GFS and any similar solutions. The fact that conditions in the Caribbean have been hostile [b][/b]
all year makes an unlikely solution even less likelier.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Apart from track,you agree that climatology favors the Western Caribbean for development in October,right? The good thing is that is long range and the tracks will change so what you saw at that run may be for another place in next run.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yes, Luis. I was only referring to the track, not to the idea that something may form--I could easily see formation, even a weak system, but not the idea of a path to Florida. There have actually been many Caribbean cyclones even after October, in November, December, and even January (Alice #2, 1954). November 1932 saw a devastating Category-5 cyclone in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, while November 1999 saw Lenny in the Leeward Islands / St. Croix / your Puerto Rican neighborhood and November 2001 saw Michelle in Cuba and the Bahamas. So I definitely agree that the season is not yet over...it just may be for the mainland U.S. Everyone else should keep watch.

What about tropical storms, this could certainly be only a TS considering the hostility of the Caribbean year-long.

[SFLcane]

Climo favors something developing in western carib but given the hostile conditions now across the gulf and southeast i think its highly unlikely we will something that strong if anything at all.

200+hr model runs..

[Hurricaneman]

There is some model concenus on development, but timing of development is different on each model

0zGFS October 15 doesnt start developing this until hr252
6zGFS October 14 develops this around hr 276
12zGFS October 14 develops this around hr 276
18zGFS October 14 develops this around hr 240

12zEuro develops this around hr 192
0zCanadian October 14 develops this around hr 192

so while the models do agree on development, they don't agree about the time of formation which this could be a model bust or a very unpleasant suprise for someone so this slightly bears watching but I don't think too much of it yet , but if it starts showing development within 168hrs than it will start to pique my interest.

[KUEFC]

Wasn't Rafael forecast to be a west Caribbean storm by the long range models?

[Caribwxgirl]

Wasn't Rafael forecast to be a west Caribbean storm by the long range models?

Yes it was. But it's origins were different from the one being predicted here. Plus to be fair the models still did pretty well in predicting there would be a system developing in the ten day range so can't beat them too badly at all.

[cycloneye]

Thankfully it continues on the long range timeframe,but GFS at 06z has a Lenny type track system.See the loop below.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[KUEFC]

True but the 06z run has pushed things back a little bit,

[Dean4Storms]

Now is not the time to look for particulars with any development down there. Just note that the models are seeing favorable conditions for some kind of development.

[gatorcane]

The global models continue to show lower than normal pressure across the Western/SW Caribbean area lat next week so something could form but details on intensity and track are obviously just a guess at this point. Certainly will be interesting to see if models generally start to pull in the development timeframe with each subsequent run. I would say given the ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and FIM are all hinting at something in their long-range forecast I would say there is decent chance some disturbed area will get going by mid to end of next week. Whether it actually can develop though remains to be seen.

Update: 12Z GFS showing the system. Here we are in the very long-range at 372 hours (top image). But the low starts to form at 228 hours now (where the black circle is in the SW Caribbean, second image) consolidates and slowly pulls north. A very classic late October scenario: