ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

It's possible we might see warming back in tomorrow's update

Nope looks like late week warming appears to not have been enough according to CPC graph.

Yes,that is correct. In fact,Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 are now on negative.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 10/15/12 Update

Nino 3.4 remains at +0.1C,same from last week but Nino 1+2 (-0.6) and Nino 3 (-0.2C) went to negative status.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[DESTRUCTION5]

El Nino Cancel...

[weatherdude1108]

The CPC today has above normal temps and below normal precip at least 10-14 days out for the southern part of the country (i.e., Texas). The extended 10-14 days out for Austin/San Antonio area depicts highs in the 80s, with a 10% or less chance for any rain, if we're lucky. For what was supposed to be a drought-alleviating El Nino, this is turning out to be a DUD.
Depressing.

[Kingarabian]

Here you go NDG:

Weak El Nino leaves Hawaii's wet season up in the air

HONOLULU (HawaiiNewsNow) -

A new forecast predicts a drier than normal early part of the wet season, however there is a potential for "heavy rain events" in late winter.

The wet season runs from October 2012 through April 2013.

According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, El Nino has been trying to develop since spring but progression has slowed recently.

El Nino is defined as warmer sea surface temperatures than average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. A strong El Nino usually means warm/dry winters.

Forecasters on Monday said that weak El Nino conditions are projected through the winter months and we can expect drier than normal conditions through early 2013

However, forecasters add that the potential for heavy rain events increases in late winter through early spring, especially if weak El Nino conditions (ENSO-neutral) continue to dominate.

The forecast also says drought recovery is more likely on Kauai and Oahu.

Like the 2011-2012 wet season, some drought recovery expected on the Big Island and Maui County but full recovery may not occur due to the intensity and longevity of existing drought conditions.

During the state's dry season (May through September 2012), NOAA says that many areas of Hawaii had below average rainfall totals, especially in the leeward areas.

NOAA said that Leeward drought redeveloped or worsened in all four counties, most windward rainfall totals were below average but adequate to meet most needs

Windward rainfall frequency was near normal but daily totals were often below normal. This has been a characteristic of summer rainfall for several years.

"Severe drought" has affected portions of the State of Hawaii continuously since June 2008.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
The CPC today has above normal temps and below normal precip at least 10-14 days out for the southern part of the country (i.e., Texas). The extended 10-14 days out for Austin/San Antonio area depicts highs in the 80s, with a 10% or less chance for any rain, if we're lucky. For what was supposed to be a drought-alleviating El Nino, this is turning out to be a DUD.
Depressing.

El Nino or not Austin is doing very well in the rain department. I don't know much else one can ask for . Almost 10 inches above normal for the year which is a lot considering.

Austin
MONTH TO DATE 0.74 Normal: 1.86
SINCE SEP 1 5.49 Normal: 4.35
SINCE JAN 1 34.20 Normal: 24.86

In the last El Nino year 2009 Austin received a total of 34.11 inches of rain for the entire year.

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:
The CPC today has above normal temps and below normal precip at least 10-14 days out for the southern part of the country (i.e., Texas). The extended 10-14 days out for Austin/San Antonio area depicts highs in the 80s, with a 10% or less chance for any rain, if we're lucky. For what was supposed to be a drought-alleviating El Nino, this is turning out to be a DUD.
Depressing.

El Nino or not Austin is doing very well in the rain department. I don't know much else one can ask for . Almost 10 inches above normal for the year which is a lot considering.

Austin
MONTH TO DATE 0.74 Normal: 1.86
SINCE SEP 1 5.49 Normal: 4.35
SINCE JAN 1 34.20 Normal: 24.86

In the last El Nino year 2009 Austin received a total of 34.11 inches of rain for the entire year.

Yes true. Camp Mabry station is doing very well. I am very thankful for the relative wet compared to last year. The problem is the hydrology is lagging behind the curve after last year's horrible heat and drought. The last rain event a couple weeks ago benefited O.H. Ivie, and other West Central Texas lakes. Most of the runoff occurred upstream of Ivie, which caught most of the water, and not as much (relatively speaking) fell downstream of Ivie on the Colorado or San Saba rivers (for Lake Buchanan), nor on the Llano or Pedernales rivers (for Travis). Therefore, no rises were measurable by the hydrologists (at least more than some inches) to lakes Buchanan or Travis. The trend this year is that when it has rained here to the point of saturation, the rain stops for two to four (sometimes six) weeks at a time. LCRA had a story about it. By the time it rains again, the soil has dried to the point of a "sponge," and the cycle starts over again, maybe keeping the water from dropping faster, but still not running off enough to make a difference in the levels. Cruel irony. But I am very patient. The levels are not close to record lows. I know they will get back to normal again someday. It's a HUGE reservoir system.

[Ntxw]

I don't think in the long term the lakes will see much in the way of repair when looking in the sense of the next decade . We have exited the warm PDO and since 2007 have been in the cold PDO. El Nino years during the cold PDO are not as wet as they are in the warm phase. Ninas become more favored and the long term drought will persist with brief periods of relief like the one we are currently in but overall we should lower our expectations on 30+ 40+ inches of rain a year and oodles of reservoir overflow until the PDO flips which won't be for a long while.

[weatherdude1108]

Hmmm.

Not what I wanted to see, but I'm glad you put the big picture into perspective. Looks like we have to count on tropical systems ultimately to break the cold PDO monotony, which is what helped out West Central Texas a couple weeks back (tropical Pacific moisture).

Well, I have decided I do not like cold PDOs. Maybe we can shorten the cold PDO process through some weather modification.

Thanks for the feedback in whatever case!

[Kingarabian]

Well at least the PDO is losing grip. There is hope.

[NDG]

ECMWF's update of its Seasonal Range forecast does not show El Niño conditions returning to Nino 3.4

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since an update, look at the sub-surface of the regions. Very dramatic warming and large area of 1C is pooling at 3.4 near the surface, while sub-surface is heating up. It's still a far stretch to undo the 4 weeks of cooling, but if we get a few weeks of high anoms say 0.8c or higher it can still cancel it out when averaging the weeklies. We'll see what effects it has in tomorrow's update if any.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2012

[cycloneye]

Here is the Mid-October update of all the ENSO models. As you can see the majority are in Neutral status for the next few months.

[Ntxw]

3, 3.4, and 4 warmed up a little last week. The question is, is this a result of the sub-surface and will it continue? Or is it a one week blip?





CFSv2 keeps insisting we cool to near Nina by mid winter, lets see if that comes to fruition.

[Kingarabian]

Very decent warming for the month of October when you compare with the month of September.
September 20th:


October 20th:


-PDO continues to lose grip, lets see how the next 2 weeks do. Could Nino pull a come back?

[weatherdude1108]

I guess the question is, will the atmosphere be able to "catch up" or teleconnect (if that's even the right term)/respond to the warming in time?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:
I guess the question is, will the atmosphere be able to "catch up" or teleconnect (if that's even the right term)/respond to the warming in time?

The atmosphere is trying to think Nino. That is why we've seen the -EPO (cold PDO is associated with +EPO) constantly and PDO continue to get hit. The sst's are solidy -PDO however as Sept came quite low but I am 70% certain it has risen dramatically since mid Sept. The waters off Japan have cooled in huge amounts the past few weeks. The latest weakening of the PDO has allowed much warming in the tropical Pacific. If we can get the cool area around 120W to disappear, the 3.4 anoms will shoot up very fast.

[Ntxw]

We are about to see the sub-surface blossom when looking at warming. 2-3c anomalies are now rising and cold pools have been eliminated. Strangely this during the fact the kelvin/mjo wave is over in the Atlantic.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, just shows how little we know and how much more we have to learn. I mean the models did a very crappy job in predicting what would happen.

[NDG]

Models did a horrible job in the long range but did a good job on the short term, especially the Eurosip & Seasonal Forecast.
Which by the way the EUROSIP forecast also shows for warm neutral conditions to continue through the winter.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif