ATL: RAFAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#281 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:28 am

12z Best Track up to Hurricane at 65kts.

AL, 17, 2012101512, , BEST, 0, 226N, 656W, 65, 983, HU

http://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inve ... 012.invest

#282 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:44 am

Wow, that was really sweet of the Hurricane Hunters.

#283 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:53 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 65.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Hurricane_Luis · #284 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:52 am

Tropical Storm Rafeal

75 mph (65 Knots)

Tropical Storm Warning
Bermuda

#285 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:03 am

Hurricane_Luis wrote:Hurricane Rafeal

75 mph (65 Knots)

http://imageshack.us/a/img198/5994/tsrafeal4.png[/img]

Tropical Storm Warning
Bermuda

Is not a Hurricane as of the 11 AM advisory.

WeatherGuesser · #286 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:12 pm

^^ Not as of the 2PM either:

...RAFAEL EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SOON...
2:00 PM AST Mon Oct 15
Location: 23.5°N 65.8°W
Moving: NNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

#287 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:54 pm

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD...
...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 65.8W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

Hurricane_Luis · #288 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:24 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Hurricane_Luis wrote:Hurricane Rafeal

75 mph (65 Knots)

http://imageshack.us/a/img198/5994/tsrafeal4.png[/img]

Tropical Storm Warning
Bermuda

Is not a Hurricane as of the 11 AM advisory.

Oh yeah, i was getting ahead of myself, but its been 2 advisory's and still hasn't strengthened into a hurricane

Hurricane_Luis · #289 Postby **Hurricane_Luis** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 4:28 pm

...RAFAEL TURNS NORTHWARD... ...NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...

galaxy401 · #290 Postby **galaxy401** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:34 pm

Looks like Rafael is a hurricane now. Probably about 70 knots according to recon.

#291 Postby **TheEuropean** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:34 pm

AF mission:
max 92 kts at flight level, 67 kts SMFR
seems to get stronger now

#292 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:53 pm

Update issued, now officially a hurricane.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2244.shtml

#293 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:56 pm

Based on the Recon data, the intensity is probably 75 kt (SFMR from NOAA suggests 80 but with a fair bit of rain)

#294 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:59 pm

Interesting fact is that is the first hurricane that forms below 25N this 2012 season.

Edit=Ernesto was the first.

HurricaneAndrew92 · #295 Postby **HurricaneAndrew92** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:15 pm

Eye should pop out any minute and wouldn't be surprised to see a 70 or 75 knot hurricane at 8 or 11.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

#296 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 6:55 pm

LLETIN
HURRICANE RAFAEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
800 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012

...RAFAEL STRENGTHENS SOME MORE AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 65.7W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM S OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

#297 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:02 pm

This buoy is next in line for Rafael:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41049

Pressure is already dropping like a rock, and Rafael is probably a good 12 hours out! It won't be a direct hit, but still interesting nonetheless.

#298 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:04 pm

Recon so far suggests a 969 pressure.

jinftl · #299 Postby **jinftl** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:14 pm

Are we seeing a period of potential Rapid Intensification....the pressure was 985 mb several hours ago...or perhaps recon is getting in there and reading the actual pressure and the earlier readings were estimated too high? If Rafael falls below 964 mb, he will score the lowest pressure reading of the season...so far :wink:

WeatherGuesser · #300 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:38 pm

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... :cheesy:

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