West-Central Caribbean Tropical Cyclone (Is Invest 99L)

[Kingarabian]

Isaac was supposed to be a full blown MH actually.

[KUEFC]

00z GFS pretty different again

[Blown Away]

06 GFS showing Wilma run!
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP384.gif

[cycloneye]

00z Euro is quite different than GFS on strengh and track. This is at 240 hours.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

00z Euro is quite different than GFS on strengh and track. This is at 240 hours.

The ECMWF has been, quite honestly, bad this season. Ever since it got the upgrade in the Spring, GFS has outperformed every other model. I wonder why it hasn't been declared the most reliable yet.

[blp]

Both the GFS and Euro now have development starting in the 8-10 timeframe. Euro is closer to the 8 day and GFS is closer to the 10 day. The Euro is quicker and weaker with the system quickly moving NE at 240hr over the Bahamas while the GFS has the system stronger and hanging around Florida towards the end of 15 days.

The 00z CMC has a low at 240hr off of Belize but it is weak.

[KUEFC]

I know the euro has been poor upto now but I am going to side with it on this occasion just with the way things have been

[gatorcane]

The 00Z CMC shows a low developing in the SW Caribbean that moves NW at 144 hours:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

The 00Z NOGAPS shows a low developing in the extreme SW Caribbean that moves slowly west at 144 hours:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... sLoop.html

[wxman57]

I'm seeing tremendous run-to-run differences in the pattern next week, particularly with the GFS. The models are agreeing on a low pressure area forming in the SW Caribbean next Monday night, which is a common location for late-season development. Of course, it's also common for the models to develop "modelcanes" in that region this time of year. If something was to develop, then I think the most likely track would be north then northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas then out to sea, as per the Euro. Just can't trust the long-range GFS when it has quite a different pattern across the U.S. in the mid to upper levels from run to run.

[gatorcane]

Looking closely at the GFS run, I believe it is the tropical wave in the surface analysis below along 50W that develops into a cyclone in the SW Caribbean next week:



Looking at the VIS loops, you can make out the wave signature (barely though) with a little bit of spin that is at 13N, 52W, moving west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html

[blp]

The 00Z CMC shows a low developing in the SW Caribbean that moves NW at 144 hours:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... MLoop.html

The 00Z NOGAPS shows a low developing in the extreme SW Caribbean that moves slowly west at 144 hours:

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... sLoop.html

I think the CMC is trying to do something with the remnants of Patty. Take a look at this 5 day loop of vorticity you can see the vorticity going across cuba and entering the SW carribean. Today it is in the W. Carribean.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/wg8vor4/wg8vor4java.html

[canes04]

RAMSDIS already has a floater up on the area in question.

[blp]

Still lots of energy to work with in that region.

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Uploaded with ImageShack.us[/img]

[MiamiensisWx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Bear in mind that the 18Z and 06Z runs, unlike those at 12Z and 00Z, do not incorporate new upper-level air data. The 00Z GFS last night actually shifted very much in line with the ECMWF and took the suspected system over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as a hurricane, thereby remaining east of South Florida. So the overall trend is in favor of the ECMWF track. Given the strong East-Coast trough that has prevailed since August--as well as on long-term climatology, which does not support a FL hurricane after October 24--I would also bet on a track east of Florida...if, of course, the system even develops.

Reposted from page 1, for informational purposes:

Only six hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 20 in South Florida:

Storm #7, 1865 (October 23, Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #9, 1870 (which was known as the second of the Twin Key West hurricanes that October and hit on October 21 at Category 1, 70 kt)
Storm #5, 1876 (which destroyed the Palm Beach settlement on October 20 at Category 2, 90 kt)
Storm #10, 1924 (October 21, Category 1, 80 kt)
Storm #7, 1935 (which as the Yankee hurricane--the latest hurricane on record to hit South Florida--hit Miami from the northeast on November 4 at Category 2, 85 kt)
Wilma 2005 (October 24, Category 2, 95 kt)

Note that only ONE of the six impacts occurred after October 24--in 1935.

Statewide, since 1851, only two other hurricane impacts have occurred on or after October 25: the 1921 Tampa Bay hurricane (the latest major hurricane to strike the state on October 25 at 100 kt, Category 3) and Kate 1985 (November 21, 85 kt, Category 2).

[gatorcane]

MiamiensisWx while I do agree with your assessment and would favor a more NE track towards Cuba/Bahamas or points east if something develops, I do not think South Florida is out of the woods just yet. The end of hurricane season here typically happens when the first cold front with significantly drier air and noticeably lower temperatures moves through which typically happens sometime during the second half of October or very beginning of November. While troughiness has been the story with the long-wave pattern over the Eastern half of North America since August, it's interesting to note but the GFS and ECMWF have still not shown the end to the rainy season here in their long-range forecasts which is marked by the arrival of that first big front.

NWS Miami snippet:

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THEN LIFTS NE INTO E CANADA AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD AND OVER THE E U.S. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...BASED ON GFS/ECMWF COMPARISON...APPEARS TO
NOT NEAR S FLA. SO...MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. WITH WESTERLY STEERING
WINDS THE INTERIOR AND E WILL BE FAVORED.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[KUEFC]

I hardly think they put a floater on it JUST because the models see something next week,

How come nobody ever seem to take the pro mets opinions on all this? After all they are pro for a reason

[cycloneye]

Ramsdis floater already focused in the SW Caribbean. IMO,I think the trigger for development may be a combination between the monsoon trough and Tropical Wave now east of the Lesser Antilles.



http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[cycloneye]

Here is what Dr Jeff Masters is saying about this possible development.

Possible Caribbean development next week
Most of the models are predicting that an area of disturbed weather capable of becoming a tropical depression will form in the Southwest Caribbean Sea off the coast of Nicaragua by the middle of next week. It's too early speculate on where such a storm might go, but residents of Central America, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should anticipate the possibility of a multi-day period of very heavy rains affecting them late next week, even if a tropical depression does not form.

[Dean4Storms]

I'm seeing tremendous run-to-run differences in the pattern next week, particularly with the GFS. The models are agreeing on a low pressure area forming in the SW Caribbean next Monday night, which is a common location for late-season development. Of course, it's also common for the models to develop "modelcanes" in that region this time of year. If something was to develop, then I think the most likely track would be north then northeast across Cuba and the Bahamas then out to sea, as per the Euro. Just can't trust the long-range GFS when it has quite a different pattern across the U.S. in the mid to upper levels from run to run.

Agree, you can almost guarantee that with whatever develops it will eventually be driven NE with the westerlies so active. The big question will be where exactly it forms. Anything north of 15N and west of 80W it could gain some latitude before the turn NE and clip Florida.

[Blown Away]

I hardly think they put a floater on it JUST because the models see something next week,

How come nobody ever seem to take the pro mets opinions on all this? After all they are pro for a reason

I think most are agreeing w/ the pro's, some suggest possible development next week in the SW Caribbean. Wxman57 says possibly through Cuba/Bahamas and Master's says to early to predict path. Not sure what opinions we are not agreeing with?